Oettinger vs. Georgiev goalie matchup in Western 2nd Round

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goalie, the last 100 goals allowed for each one in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted to see what patterns emerge.

The Western Conference Second Round between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche features goalies coming off regular seasons and playoff-opening performances that weren’t up to their usually high standards, yet Jake Oettinger of the Stars and Alexandar Georgiev of the Avalanche still found ways to win.

Oettinger went 35-14-4 despite an NHL career-worst .905 save percentage this season but finished strong before giving up four goals in a Game 1 loss in the First Round against the Vegas Golden Knights. Oettinger rebounded by allowing one goal in each of the final two games of the series, which the Stars won in seven games. Georgiev was 38-18-5 despite also an NHL career-low .897 save percentage. He allowed seven goals in a Game 1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets in the First Round before bouncing back to win four straight and end the series in five games. 

Game 1 of the series is Tuesday at American Airlines Center in Dallas (9:30 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN360, SN, TVAS).

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars

Each game in the first round against Vegas felt like a microcosm of the series -- and the season -- that got better as it went on for Oettinger. The 25-year-old gave up a total of three goals after the second period in the seven-game series, two of them coming in Game 6.  Oettinger was also great late in the regular season, going 10-2-0 with a .930 save percentage after March 14, and in the process appearing to shed some of the habits and trends that contributed to an until-then disappointing regular season. The key for Colorado will be trying to create the type of chances that might bring them back.

Bad angles and pop passes: Oettinger gave up 21 goals on low-to-high passes in the regular season, above the 17.1 percent tracked average of the now more than 7,800 goals tracked for this project since 2017, and another nine on sharp-angle plays originating from below the face-off circle. There was inconsistency on his post-to-post transitions and footwork on plays that moved through the middle of the ice from sharp angles and behind the net that contributed to those totals by delaying his ability to get out and set on pop passes back out front and in-tight lateral plays. There was also a tendency at times to lift his head and shoulders to protect the top corners on sharp angles, which delays tracking and rotation, making quick shots key. 
 
High glove and 5-hole: Seeing the biggest regular-season number over the glove might make it tempting to target, but the reality is these numbers don't represent save percentages, and the 25 high-glove total is only slightly above the 23.6 percent tracked average. The fact that seven of the high-glove goals came on clean looks and another four in 1-on-1, breakaway-type situations, however, makes it a trend worth watching to see if Colorado’s snipers target it. The 12 goals scored five-hole are also right around the average, but there was a trend in some of the open-look goals between the legs worth watching, even if it appears to be one of the things corrected in the late-season surge: Oettinger sometimes retreats before the shot with a double reverse c-cut that widens out his stance and can put him on his heels as he moves, pulling his shoulders back off the release and making it harder to get the pads to the ice to close that five-hole. 
 
Against the grain: Shooting to the side Oettinger is moving away from accounted for 22 goals in the regular season, above the 18.5 percent tracked average, and 6-of-14 in the playoffs, though two of those were tipped. The regular-season trend on rush plays included a tendency to retreat, or drift back, in straight lines which can cause a goalie to lose squareness as the play moves deeper into the zone, exposing more net far side. Starting out above the crease and retreating against the rush can also create vulnerability on passes higher in the zone because being further out early in the sequence increases the lateral distance he needs to cover. 
 
Stretch him out: Scoring chances across the middle of the ice that force a goalie to transition from one side to the other are always a great way to try to score on any goalie, but Oettinger always has excelled against these types of lateral chances. He tends to come across a bit flat with these side-to-side pushes, which helps him close down on shooters on the other end of those passes, but it can leave him prone to being stretched out wide because he doesn't rotate back to his posts as much as others, a tendency that shows up in some of those higher-than-expected -- and average -- goal totals along the ice on either side of the pads.
 
Active rebounds: Oettinger’s 13 rebound goals in the regular season were only two worse than the tracked average, but it’s important for attacking teams to understand these second chances may not end up in the same place as other goalies. Oettinger uses Bauer pads, which are specifically designed to create notably more active rebounds, making it harder to react to low shots off the pads if you are parked right at the edge of the crease.

Alexandar Georgiev

Colorado Avalanche

Georgiev bounced back from giving up seven goals in Game 1 against the Jets, winning the next four games while giving up eight total goals. The 28-year-old was really good in a first-round loss to the Seattle Kraken in last year’s playoffs, posting a .914 save percentage in his first postseason with the Avalanche, and will need to show he really has rediscovered that form in the second round against the Stars.

Quick shots, even from distance: Georgiev uses a narrow, upright, stance when the play is on the perimeter and higher in the zone, an increasingly common trend among NHL goalies in an era of rising east-west plays because it makes it easier to move laterally. But Georgiev mostly uses shuffles to get around his crease in this stance, and there is some up-and-down “bobbing” in that movement that looks rigid at times, can make it harder to pick up pucks before he fully sets in his next spot, and appears to contribute to getting caught in transition into his save stance. One-timers were a primary factor on 14 goals in the regular season, almost double the tracked average, and played a role in 30 goals overall, as well as five in the first round against the Jets, so quick releases are key to catch him moving, even from above the circles. 
 
Traffic, rebounds and scrambles: Another benefit of Georgiev’s high stance is an ability to see pucks over traffic, with screens accounting for only 10 tracked regular-season goals, five below the average. The Jets scored 3-of-14 with screens, but all came with multiple players between the goalie and puck, which significantly increases the degree of difficulty. Long shots with traffic do produce more rebounds on Georgiev, however, perhaps in part because he tends to slide rather than shift across and can get caught moving a lot in scramble situations and pucks that hit players in front, which accounted for 24 regular-season goals and 4-of-14 in the first round, both well above the tracked average of 14 percent. 
 
Low-to-high and quick: Georgiev does a great job being patient on post play situations around or below the net, holding his edges rather than defaulting early to a post-integration technique like reverse-VH, in which the goalie drops his post-side knee to the ice with that skate against the post and uses the back leg to drive up into that coverage and pivot off it. He gave up 17 goals on low-high passes, which is close to the average (17.1 percent). But he also gave up another 11 on plays from below the bottom of the circle, including two in the first round involving post play, and can get caught in a late transition into his posts with quick shots or pop passes to one-timers. 
 
Blocker side: In addition to the biggest number on the goal chart being high blocker in the regular season, there was also a discrepancy in lower shots and passing plays to that side, with 59 percent of the goals scored there. Some of that is situational in terms of plays being funneled to that side, and the numbers were slightly higher on the glove side in the first round, but it will be worth watching to see if the Stars target high blocker in the second round.