Fantasy: Golden Knights-Capitals Game 1 picks

With the Vegas Golden Knights and Washington Capitals set for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday (8 p.m. ET; NBC, CBC, TVAS, SN), fantasy writers Pete Jensen and Rob Reese have picks and strategies for DraftKings NHL Showdown contests.

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Pete Jensen (@NHLJensen)
Must-own player: Alex Ovechkin, W, WSH ($12,200 in DraftKings) -- There are many more points to be obtained in NHL Showdown compared to Classic contests, and this new format gives star players a much-higher floor. Ovechkin has reached a level of dominance in DFS hockey this postseason that rivals NBA players like LeBron James and James Harden, lineup locks in their respective sport. Ovechkin is the most-expensive player for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final because his benchmark and ceiling are higher than the rest of the field. He still brings the trademark shot volume and, after a clutch goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final, is shooting 15.0 percent through 19 Stanley Cup Playoff games (highest of NHL career). Ovechkin also has 15 points (eight goals, seven assists) and 33 shots on goal in 10 road games this postseason.
Value pick: Alex Tuch, W, VGK -- The Vegas Golden Knights rookie has taken advantage of an elevated role on the first power-play unit for most of the postseason and second line this past round against the Winnipeg Jets. He has nine points (six goals, three assists), four power-play points and 29 SOG in 15 playoff games and averaged 12.2 Showdown points over the final three games of the Western Conference Final. With exposure to Vegas' top line on the first power play and center Erik Haula ($7,800) and wing James Neal ($8,400) at even strength, Tuch is a viable secondary scorer that offers salary cap relief in Cup Final contests.
Overall strategy:Even though the Capitals have been so impressive on the road, I would go with a two-goalie lineup and spend up for Conn Smythe contender Marc-Andre Fleury ($8,700), who's 2-0 with two shutouts in Game 1s at home this postseason. But, if you have to choose one goalie, Holtby is somehow much more affordable in DraftKings ($7,100) even though he's 8-2 with a .930 save percentage on the road in the playoffs and coming off back-to-back shutouts. To make room for Ovechkin, you can easily stack him with linemate Tom Wilson ($6,100) and still have enough left to roster a top-tier defenseman like John Carlson ($8,000).
Game 1 prediction: Capitals win, 3-2
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Rob Reese (@NHLReese)
Must-own player: Jonathan Marchessault, W, VGK ($11,500) -- The Golden Knights wing will return value even if he doesn't get on the score sheet. In Game 5 against the Winnipeg Jets in the conference final, Marchessault had no points but still managed 12.2 DraftKings Showdown points with six SOG and a face-off win. Scoring has not been a problem for the top-line left wing, who leads Vegas with 18 points (eight goals, 10 assists) in 15 playoff games. DFS players should be comfortable paying a premium price for Marchessault because he leads remaining players with 4.3 SOG per game (64 total).
Value pick: Jakub Vrana, W, WSH ($5,300) -- The Capitals wing has been a threat on the second line with center Nicklas Backstrom and right wing T.J. Oshie. Although Backstrom had 11.8 DraftKings Showdown points in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Lightning, his price is now $10,000 (previously $8,800). But Vrana is a highly skilled, cost-effective player with even-strength exposure to the elite Swedish center. Vrana had two SOG for 4.0 Showdown points in Game 7 against the Lightning and also rang a post, beating Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy gloveside. If Vrana continues to rack up shots, he should see his below-average playoff shooting percentage (6.9) revert closer to his regular-season percentage (9.8).
Overall strategy: Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final has the potential to be a low-scoring, low special teams game until both teams settle into the series. Building a lineup around players that can rack up SOG and face-off wins is a great way to ensure getting to the floor in DraftKings Showdown contests. Pick Ovechkin, the best shot producer in the playoffs (80 SOG), and surround him with a value forward like Wilson and/or Vrana. After selecting Vegas' leading scorer in Marchessault, you can lock in their goaltender Fleury, who has at least 15.0 Showdown points in each of his past four games. But the ultimate high-risk, high-reward strategy for Game 1 is to avoid goaltenders entirely, draft Ovechkin, Marchessault and center William Karlsson ($10,900) and round out your lineup with boom-or-bust David Perron ($4,900).
Game 1 prediction: Golden Knights win, 2-1
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