NHL EDGE stats: Stamkos’ goal-scoring resurgence for Predators

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we identify the key advanced metrics behind Nashville Predators forward Steven Stamkos' bounce-back season.

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Steven Stamkos has re-emerged as one of the NHL's elite goal-scorers this season, backed by strong advanced stats, and is keeping the Nashville Predators in Stanley Cup Playoff contention.

Stamkos, who’s 36 years old, is turning back the clock with 35 goals in 71 games, tied for 11th in the NHL, this season. He leads the League in game-winning goals (10) and is tied for the most hat tricks (two; including four-goal game Dec. 11). Stamkos scored 27 goals in 82 games last season, his first with Nashville after leaving his longtime team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and signing a four-year contract with the Predators on July 1, 2024.

Stamkos is also among the NHL leaders in even-strength goals (24; 15th) this season, and the Predators (34-28-9; 77 points) currently hold the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference with 11 games remaining. Nashville is 7-2-1 in its past 10 games, and its five-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the NHL. Stamkos has six points (four goals, two assists), four power-play points, one game-winning goal and 10 shots on goal over the Predators' five-game winning streak.

Since Nov. 26, Stamkos is tied with Cole Caufield for the NHL lead in goals (31 each). During that 49-game span, the Predators are tied for ninth in the NHL in points (28-16-5; 61 points) and rank fourth in the Western Conference standings, led by their experienced core of forwards Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan O’Reilly, defenseman Roman Josi and goalie Juuse Saros.

Among active NHL players, Stamkos ranks third in career goals (617) behind Alex Ovechkin (League’s all-time leader with 923) and Sidney Crosby (653). Stamkos also is one of five active players with at least one 60-goal season (reached mark in 2011-12); the others are Auston Matthews (twice), Connor McDavid, Ovechkin and David Pastrnak. Stamkos is a two-time Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winner as the NHL goal leader in a single season (60 in 2012; scored 51 in 2010) and two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Lightning (2020, 2021).

Here are three underlying metrics behind Stamkos’ goal-scoring resurgence:

1. Shot speed

Stamkos is tied for seventh among forwards in 90-plus mph shots (nine) this season. He also ranks highly at the position in hardest shot (95.00 mph; 97th percentile) and shot attempts between 80-90 mph (43; 96th percentile).

He's tied for ninth in the NHL in slap shot goals (six). Over the past two seasons combined, Stamkos leads NHL forwards in slap shot goals (16) and ranks second in the League in that category (19) behind Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh.

2. Goals by location

Stamkos ranks among the forward leaders in high-danger goals (15; 94th percentile), midrange goals (10; 94th percentile) and midrange shots on goal (59; 90th percentile) this season. Stamkos’ combined goal total from the middle regions of the ice (25; high-danger plus midrange goals) is more than he scored from that area last season (18 in 2024-25; eight from high-danger, 10 from midrange).

His goal-scoring improvement also can be explained by his uptick in high-danger shooting percentage. After ranking below the NHL forward average in high-danger shooting percentage last season (18.6 percent), he ranks in the 94th percentile at the position in that category this season (30.0 percent).

3. Offensive zone time percentage

Stamkos ranks in the 92nd percentile among forwards in offensive zone time percentage (45.8 percent), and Nashville ranks third in offensive zone time percentage at even strength (42.4 percent). The Predators also rank in the top half of the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage (50.0 percent; tied for 15th) this season, an indicator of a team's staying power as a postseason contender.

Stamkos’ skating ability has also remained strong in the latter stages of his career; Stamkos ranks in the 90th percentile among forwards in even-strength skating distance (169.01 miles) and in the 84th percentile in max skating speed (22.95 mph). Among the 26 NHL players with at least 30 goals this season, Stamkos averages the fifth-fewest ice time (17:43 per game) of that group, showing how Predators coach Andrew Brunette is keeping his veteran forward fresh and opportunistic.

Nashville missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, and general manager Barry Trotz recently announced he will be stepping down after this season. But even with the Predators at a crossroads between contending and rebuilding, Stamkos’ rejuvenated play has them relevant again in the Western Conference playoff picture.