BEN ZWEIMAN: If it weren't for an extremely strong rookie class last season, Nylander likely would have won the Calder Trophy. Instead, linemate Matthews won rookie of the year. But that shouldn't discourage Nylander, especially if he continues to play with Matthews long-term. Nylander finished with 61 points (22 goals, 39 assists) with 32 penalty minutes and 205 SOG in 81 games. He was tied for ninth in power-play points, the same amount as Alex Ovechkin pf the Washington Capitals, but did it being tied for 121st in PP ice time per game (2:21). Among the top 50 PPP producers at forward last season, Nylander was 49th in average ice time per game (16:00). Chances are his average ice time and PP ice time will increase, particularly if the Maple Leafs trade van Riemsdyk and/or center Tyler Bozak.
Toronto will use pretty much the same lineup it did last season. The only differences will be Marleau (potentially in the top six) and defenseman Ron Hainsey. If anything, Marleau will improve a power play that was second in the League last season (23.8 percent). Nylander was already one of the top PPP assets and could eclipse 30 points on the man-advantage. Hainsey's presence should clean up some mistakes that led to goals, which could help Nylander's plus/minus. Ultimately, it would be shocking if Nylander didn't improve on his rookie point total, and his secondary category coverage was already strong, which can't be said for Radulov.
Many believe Radulov's move to Dallas will spark an offensive surge, but that may not be the case. First, take a look at who is behind the bench: Ken Hitchcock, a defense-first coach who likes to shuffle his lines. Everyone thinks Radulov will line up at right wing next to Benn and Seguin, but even if that's the case early on, it may not persist. Radulov doesn't exactly play a strong two-way game, so if he becomes a defensive liability, Hitchcock might not hesitate to demote him to a third-line, PP-specialist role. Radulov will likely see less ice time, and unless he finishes with about 14 more PPP, there's no way he outperforms Nylander with all categories considered.