2024 Sharks Draft Lottery Preview

The 2024 NHL Draft Lottery, to be held on Tues., May 7, will determine the draft selection order for the first 16 picks in the first round. Only teams that did not qualify for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs are eligible to participate in the lottery, and teams can only move up a maximum of ten places in the lottery.

WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR?
Last year, the Sharks finished with a record of 22-44-16 and seventh overall in the Pacific Division. San Jose had the fourth-best odds (9.5%) to win the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery. The first overall selection was ultimately won by the Chicago Blackhawks, who had the third-highest odds at the top overall selection (11.5%). San Jose received the fourth overall selection and drafted forward Will Smith. He became the highest draft pick in Boston College history and played his way to a historic first season with the Eagles, setting the program’s all-time freshman scoring record (71 points), earning Hockey East First All-Star Team and Tournament MVP honors as well as a place on the Frozen Four All-Tournament Team. Smith was a Top-10 Hobey Baker Award Finalist after matching Jack Eichel’s 2014-15 scoring output for most by a NCAA U-19 skater since the 1993-94 season. In International play, Smith helped steer the United States to a Gold Medal at the World Junior Championship, tying for fourth on the roster with nine points, including two assists in the Gold Medal game win over host Sweden.

San Jose held a second selection in the first round as part of the Timo Meier trade and with New Jersey’s first round selection, picked forward Quentin Musty at 26^th overall. In his third season with the Sudbury Wolves, Musty led OHL skaters with 1.92 points-per-game and put up a career-high 102 points (43g, 59a), which ranked tied for fourth in the league. Both players selected in the first round of the 2023 Draft by General Manager Mike Grier had stellar seasons and appear to be valuable building blocks for the future of the Sharks organization.

2024 DRAFT LOTTERY
The 2024 NHL Draft Lottery will take place at the NHL Network's Secaucus, N.J., studio and will be broadcast live on ESPN, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports.  The exact time of the lottery has yet to be announced.

Should the Sharks receive the first pick, it would be the first time in franchise history that San Jose gets to make the draft’s first selection. The highest overall selection San Jose has ever received was second overall (Patrick Marleau) in the 1997 NHL Entry Draft.  

The Sharks have two sets of odds at play in the lottery.  They hold an 18.5% chance of being drawn to receive the first overall selection.  However, considering that teams with the 12^th through 16^th best odds can only move up ten draft positions, San Jose’s overall odds of securing the first overall selection are 25.5%.

Below are the odds for each team to win the lottery’s first overall selection:

*San Jose acquired Pittsburgh’s first-round pick (top-10 protected) as part of a package in return for defenseman Erik Karlsson on Aug. 6, 2023. If the Penguins move into the top 10 via the draft lottery, they have 72 hours to decide to give their 2024 first round pick to the Sharks, or to push the selection into the the 2025 NHL Draft, with no protections.

Each club will assess prospects eligible for the draft at the 2024 NHL Scouting Combine, which will begin June 2 in Buffalo.

THE SCENARIOS
San Jose is eligible to select anywhere from first to third overall, depending on the results of each of the lottery draws. Here is a breakdown of possible outcomes on May 7.

First overall: San Jose will be awarded the first overall selection by winning the first lottery draw or if the first draw is won by Philadelphia, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit or St. Louis.

Second overall: San Jose will be awarded the second overall selection if another eligible team is picked for the first draw then the Sharks win the second draw or if another eligible team wins the first draw then the second is won Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit or St. Louis.

Third overall: San Jose will be awarded the third overall selection if the two draws are won by other eligible teams for those respective slots.