NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the advanced stats prowess of Jake Guentzel and the Tampa Bay Lightning offense.
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The Tampa Bay Lightning once again have not missed a beat despite significant offseason turnover. This time, forward Jake Guentzel is the new wrinkle that has helped Tampa Bay overcome the departures of forward Steven Stamkos and defenseman Mikhail Sergachev.
The Lightning, even without Stamkos (signed with Nashville Predators) and Sergachev (traded to Utah Hockey Club), are leading the NHL in goals per game (4.00) and have the third-best power play (27.8 percent) after leading the League with the man advantage last season (28.6). Per NHL EDGE stats, Tampa Bay leads the League in high-danger goals (60); forwards Brayden Point (12; tied for second behind Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl's 14), Guentzel (nine), Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel (eight each) have combined for more than half (37) of the Lightning’s total.
Guentzel ranks fourth in the NHL in high-danger shots on goal (46). Last season, despite missing time because of injury and changing teams (traded by Pittsburgh Penguins to Carolina Hurricanes), Guentzel still finished in the top 10 in high-danger SOG (109); his rights were traded to the Lightning on June 30 before he signed a seven-year contract. Guentzel, whose seven-game goal streak ended Thursday (Nov. 30 to Dec. 17), and Cirelli, who scored goals in six straight from Nov. 14-25, have the two longest goal streaks in the entire NHL this season.
Point and Guentzel are playing together on the top line with reigning Art Ross Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov (led NHL with 144 points last season), who is leading the League in points per game (1.75; 49 in 28 games) and power-play points (20) this season. Point is leading the NHL in power-play goals (11) and ranks third in the League in goals (21), with Guentzel not far behind in the latter category (18; tied for eighth). In a season where elite goal-scorers Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals and Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs have missed significant time with injuries, the Lightning have multiple contenders for the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy.
Per NHL EDGE stats, Point is among the best in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (138; seventh in entire League), while Kucherov ranks highly in single-game skating distance (4.40 miles; 99th percentile), top shot speed (91.63 mph; 91st percentile) and average shot speed (62.57 mph; 89th percentile) among forwards.
Defenseman Victor Hedman, another staple of Tampa Bay's perennial elite offense over the past decade, is tied for third in the NHL in long-range goals (three) behind Brandon Montour of the Seattle Kraken (five) and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks (four). Hedman, despite no longer having as much depth behind him on the Lightning at the position, is still at the top of his game in terms of max shot speed (98.97 mph; ninth in entire NHL), 90-plus mph shot attempts (28; second behind Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard's 29) and average shot speed (77.06 mph; 98th percentile).
The other constant for the Lightning during their run of back-to-back championships in 2020 and 2021 and four Stanley Cup Final appearances since 2015 is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who continues to perform among the League's best workhorse goalies. Tampa Bay is tied for 10th in team save percentage (.898) this season, and, per NHL EDGE stats, Vasilevskiy has the second-best goal differential (plus-32) at the position behind Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets (plus-36). Vasilevskiy is also among the League leaders in high-danger saves (144; seventh) and midrange saves (167; sixth).
Although the Lightning have a top-heavy offense, secondary scorers like Cirelli and Hagel are delivering in key advanced metrics. Per NHL EDGE stats, Cirelli and Hagel have the same totals in high-danger shots on goal (30; 92nd percentile) and high-danger goals (93rd percentile), ranking near the top of the League in each category. In terms of max skating speed, Cirelli (23.15 mph; 94th percentile) and Hagel (23.06 mph; 92nd percentile) have been standouts.
One glaring concern surrounding Tampa Bay's staying power is its high shooting percentage (24.1 percent; leads NHL). Also, although the Lightning power play is as potent as ever with the addition of Guentzel to the first unit, their offensive zone time percentage with the man advantage (56.7) is below the League average (57.8). But Tampa Bay's speed (39 bursts of at least 22 mph; tied for eighth), hard shots (44 shots of at least 90 mph; second) and finishing ability have superseded any roster flaws.
Barring injuries to any elite players, the Lightning (.633 points percentage; 10th in NHL) continue to stand the test of time as one of the League's most consistently explosive and dynamic teams. Tampa Bay has qualified for seven straight postseasons, tied with the Colorado Avalanche for the third-longest streak in the NHL behind the Boston Bruins and Maple Leafs (eight each) -- a streak that doesn't appear to be in any jeopardy.
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