Insider debate: What can we expect from the Stars in the 2022 NHL Draft?

DallasStars.com Senior Staff Writer Mike Heika and Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine give the lowdown on what to expect when the Stars make their picks at the 2022 NHL Draft in Montreal. The Stars hold six selections in the draft, including the 18th overall pick and one in each of the first six rounds.

WORTH A CLICK: [Complete order of draft / Stars 2022 NHL Draft Central]
1. Stars GM Jim Nill and his staff have found some tremendous potential in the latter half of the first round and beyond over the past few years, notably Mavrik Bourque (30th overall in 2020), Wyatt Johnston (23rd overall in 2021) and Logan Stankoven (47th overall in 2021). What are the chances they find another one this time around beginning with the 18th overall selection?
Bruce LeVine, Dallas Stars Radio Analyst:Considering the success of the past few drafts, there should be quite a bit of optimism for what can be accomplished this year. There's a general consensus on the top-5 players (Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, Logan Cooley, Simon Nemec and David Jiricek), but maybe a surprise name (like Cutter Gauthier) squeezes into the mix. After that, there's a fraction of a difference between the rest of the available talent slotted to go in the first two rounds.
The Stars have spent years scouting these prospects and have a strong indication of who will be available at No. 18. But with this being a "flat" draft, the selection taken at No. 50 could be just as valuable as the first-round pick. In addition to the Stars players mentioned, the team's had recent success with early-round picks selected 18th and later. Thomas Harley was the 18th player selected in 2019. Jason Robertson was 39th overall in 2017. Add in Memorial Cup finalist Artem Grushnikov (48th in 2021) and there's no reason to think a repeat of draft success can't be duplicated.
The 2017 draft was a franchise changer for the Stars and 2021 has potential to be just as good. We won't know the answers for a few years, but keep in mind if you can select two NHL standouts in a single draft, it's considered a major success.
Mike Heika, DallasStars.com Senior Staff Writer:In talking to Stars people, they say they haven't really changed their attitude about drafting, but they definitely do seem to target skill more in recent years. That being said, they've taken players like Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, Julius Honka and Val Nichushkin, so maybe they really haven't changed that much.
Bottom line, this group of scouts has done very well in recent years, including the 2017 haul and the big number producers over the past two drafts. Is that because of a change in focus or simply a run of good luck? Probably a little of both. I think the scouting staff, led by Joe McDonnell, really did an exceptional job of digging in during the pandemic, and it might've sharpened their senses and refined their process. Dallas clearly had an advantage during the past three seasons because they adapted very well.
The question now is if they can maintain that edge in a time when things have gotten back to normal. It sure looks like they're in a place where they're reading signs right both on and off the ice, and the hope is they can maintain that vision. The guess here is we'll see the picks focused on skill and speed because that's worked out in recent years.

2. Looking back at the 2021 draft, the Stars traded down from 15th overall and gained two extra picks in the process (they took Grushnikov 48th overall and Jack Bar at No. 138). Could you see something similar happening this time around?
LeVine:If you ask the amateur scouting department, there's no such thing as too many draft picks. After having a combined total of nine during the 2019 and 2020 drafts, the Stars had 10 selections in 2021. But part of being able to secure extra picks is the availability of a much-desired athlete. Detroit desperately wanted a future franchise goalie, so when Sebastian Cossa was available, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman had the desire and draft capital to work a trade with his old pal Jim Nill.
The deal that night was a win-win for all involved. There might not be any franchise goalies this year, and the draft doesn't seem to have exceptional talent to warrant a trade up to 18th overall. Many teams have players they like but aren't enamored enough with the prospect to part with additional picks. I'm sure the Stars would be willing to listen, but the environment doesn't seem right for a trade-and-move-back scenario.
Heika: This is a tricky one because it can easily go both ways. Last year created some opportunities that helped both teams, but Dallas traded down back in the Doug Armstrong days, and history doesn't smile on those decisions so much.
Bottom line, it's typically better to pick earlier. Yes, you can increase your total number of picks - and in a draft like this, it can be very helpful - but most scouts will tell you they'd prefer to take a player they have slated higher.
Now, we don't know how the board will play out and we don't know how the Stars will align their board, so some of these decisions could be slam dunks once the players start moving. But I do caution that the strategy can be risky. After picking just nine players over a span of two years, Dallas needed to add picks last season. It worked out, but I'm not sure it's always the best strategy.

3. On the flip side, is there a scenario where you could see the Stars trading up in the first round?
LeVine: In the history of the Dallas Stars, the team has only once traded up in the first round of the NHL Draft. The year was 2017 and the player selected was Jake Oettinger. The Stars had an extra first-round pick that year due to the Patrick Eaves trade to Anaheim. The Ducks' first-round pick was paired with the Stars' own third-round selection for the ability to move up just three spots, and it was totally worth it. As we saw last season, Oettinger is a special player and well worth the price.
The only possible scenario I see for the Stars to move up is by pairing the 18th overall pick with a player already on the roster. In this draft there just isn't a prospect beyond the top five worth trading away picks. There's a better chance of me getting drafted than Dallas parting with additional assets for a specific player.
Heika:This is one where the scouts have to really fall in love with someone. The experts say this draft is pretty even after the top five, so the odds of that happening seems small.
One of the interesting things about the Stars is they've done so well getting skilled players that they can afford to be a little patient now. It's never a bad thing to have talented players, but they also don't feel the urgency to have to reach for one.
That said, you do wonder if they might be focused on a right-handed defenseman or a goalie. The top two D prospects in the system - Harley and Grushnikov - are both lefties, and the fact the team has to try to play Miro Heiskanen on his off-side does create the discussion that you might want more balance in that area. Likewise, the run of Oettinger buys you a lot of time when it comes to pondering another young goalie, but history shows that it's usually good to have a hungry young backup rather than an older player who might not be able to handle the No. 1 job if you get a serious injury.
This leads me to speculate that if you indeed saw a right-handed defenseman or a top goalie a few spots ahead, you might want to talk about moving up. I think that would make some sense.
4. If the Stars keep their 18th overall pick, who do you have your eyes on?
LeVine:The draft mantra used to be that you draft the best player available regardless of position. However, don't expect the Stars to abide by that axiom unless someone very special drops deep into the first round. Already in the Dallas pipeline are Johnston (2022 OHL Player of the Year), Bourque (2022 QMJHL playoff MVP) and Stankoven (2022 CHL Most Outstanding Player).
Furthermore, the Stars have talented Swedish prospects Daniel Ljungman and Albert Sjoberg, both named to Sweden's World Junior roster.
The Stars also have two 30-plus goal scorers in the OHL with Antonio Stranges and Francesco Arcuri, and 2021 U18 gold medalist and WHL point-per-game player Conner Roulette.
What do all these prospects have in common? All are forwards. Except for Grushnikov, the Stars' stockpile of prospects is painfully low on the backend. Look for Dallas to address that lack of depth starting with the first-round selection. This draft has several quality blueliners that should be around at 18. In no particular order:

Heika: While there are some strong right-handed defensemen available in this area, the goalie crop is thin, so it might not be necessary to draft for need. Honestly, I think Dallas needs to trust its board and take the best player who falls to them.
Among the names that could be there are:

5. What makes this draft so exciting for Stars fans who might not be the most familiar with recent drafts for the club?
LeVine:If you're a Stars fan who isn't familiar with the past few drafts, my advice is to get familiar with them. The players they selected are going to be the backbone of this team in the near future. The reason to get excited about 2022 is the overall depth. There will be some superstars from this selection process, but they may not come only from the top picks.
The 2021 draft was the most unique draft in history because the lack of games played due to the pandemic made for less information to make selections. The Stars benefitted as Johnston and Stankoven were available when they probably shouldn't have been. This year is a return to normalcy as far as access and live scouting, but the talent level is average. Pay extra attention to the second day of the draft as this is where the Stars' scouts tend to shine. Hintz, Robertson, Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn, John Klingberg and Jacob Peterson were all drafted in the second round or beyond.

Players the Stars might take on Day 2:
Young prospects are the life blood of any hockey organization. To even out the salary cap hits of high-priced vets, a franchise needs entry-level contracts and for those prospects to contribute. Considering how well Dallas has done recently in finding top talent, there is no reason to think it can't happen again. The most exciting thing about this draft is belief that it will.
Heika:I don't have the history that Bruce does with international competitions and seeing young players live, so I'll defer to him.
I'll say that I actually have the best memories of the draft a few years down the line. The immediate knee-jerk response to who you think should've been taken is fun, but it seems odd when you're looking at 18-year-old hockey players and trying to project where they might go.
The fun of it is finding out if you were right or not, so you have to register your opinions and see where they pan out in a few years.
The other thing I enjoy is getting to hear from the scouts and seeing them interact. Dallas has built a very tight group, and the job is so tough. You travel all year, see thousands of players and file hundreds of reports, and then you might see one of your picks land on the Stars. It requires immense patience, immense belief and incredible teamwork.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.
Bruce LeVineis a contributor for DallasStars.com and the analyst of Dallas Stars radio broadcasts on Sportsradio 1310-AM and 96.7-FM The Ticket. Follow him on Twitter @BruceLeVinePuck.
Main photo (from left to right): Owen Pickering, Ryan Chesley, Frank Nazar, Rutger McGroarty