NHL EDGE stats behind Sabres’ epic Game 1 comeback against Bruins

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at key advanced metrics behind the Buffalo Sabres’ comeback win in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference First Round.

The Buffalo Sabres’ first Stanley Cup Playoff win in nearly 15 years was an epic comeback against the Boston Bruins in their postseason opener, with some of their strongest advanced stats making all the difference in the victory.

The Sabres became the first team in NHL postseason history to win in regulation after trailing by multiple goals and not scoring any with eight minutes or fewer remaining in the third period. Buffalo scored four straight goals, including two by Tage Thompson. Mattias Samuelsson’s go-ahead goal came just 52 seconds after Thompson’s game-tying goal late, completing a stretch of three goals in a 4:34 span.

Thompson, who was making his NHL postseason debut, became the second player in Sabres history to have three points in his playoff debut, joining Pierre Turgeon (1988). Buffalo’s last playoff win came nearly 15 years to the day (April 22, 2011 against Philadelphia Flyers), and this marked the second-latest multi-goal come-from-behind regulation victory in NHL history (Buffalo trailed by two goals with 7:58 left) behind the New York Americans in 1940 (trailed by two goals with 3:45 left).

Buffalo heavily outshot Boston, 38-20, in the game and eventually solved Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman, who had a .919 save percentage (31 saves on 34 shots faced) despite the Bruins giving up their lead and ultimately losing the game. Thompson, who reached 40 goals this season for the third time of his career, and Samuelsson, who had NHL career highs in goals (13), assists (28), and points (41) this season, carried over their regular-season success to spark Buffalo’s offense in the clutch.

Thompson, who leads the entire NHL in even-strength goals over the past two regular seasons combined (71), helped the Sabres make an early statement in the postseason after ending their 14-season playoff drought. Thompson, with his individual effort in Game 1, has emerged as a dark horse Conn Smythe Trophy contender.

Here are three advanced stats storylines behind the Sabres’ epic comeback and how they can carry over the momentum to the rest of the playoffs:

1. Thompson’s shot metrics

Thompson scored both of his goals in Game 1 from high-danger zones after making impressive stick-handling moves on each play; his first goal came on a backhanded wraparound that he snuck past Swayman to open the scoring for Buffalo, while his second goal was a net-front shot. 

The Sabres were tied for sixth in the NHL in high-danger goals (142) during the regular season, while Thompson ranked in the 93rd percentile among forwards in high-danger shots on goal (73) and 90th percentile in high-danger goals (15). In terms of high-danger shots on goal, the Sabres had 11 in Game 1 compared to Boston's six.

Thompson is also known for his elite shot speed; during the regular season, he led NHL forwards in 90-plus mph shot attempts (44) and ranked sixth in hardest shot (97.94 mph). Thompson had seven shots on goal in his playoff debut, and his 11 shot attempts were tied for the second most across the League over the first two days of the playoffs (behind Utah Mammoth forward Dylan Guenther’s 14).

Buffalo, as a team, ranked second in average shot speed during the regular season (59.78 mph). In the Sabres' Game 1 win, they had 31 shot attempts of at least 70 mph compared to only 15 such attempts by the Bruins.

2. Samuelsson’s well-rounded play

Samuelsson’s tie-breaking goal was a midrange goal, continuing his own and his team’s prowess from those zones this season. During the regular season, Samuelsson ranked in the 94th percentile in midrange goals (six) and 90th percentile in midrange shots on goal (31).

The Sabres, as a team, were tied for third in midrange goals (94) and tied for eighth in midrange shots on goal (698) during the regular season. Among qualified goalies during the regular season (minimum 25 games played), Swayman had the second-best midrange save percentage (.928), proving the importance of this category in Game 1.

Samuelsson, who’s 6-foot-4, showed a combination of size, speed and skating ability during his breakout regular season. He also ranked in the 90th percentile or higher among defensemen in hardest shot, max skating speed, 20-plus mph speed bursts, total skating distance and long-range goals.

3. Ice Tilt

“Ice Tilt” is an NHL EDGE IQ metric that attempts to quantify a team’s territorial momentum at any given point during game play. It is derived from the average location of each team’s players on the ice (not the puck) in relation to the center redline over the preceding two minutes of game action.

The Sabres, who ranked fifth in time with Ice Tilt per period (10:46) during the regular season, had a significant advantage over the Bruins in Game 1 (42:37 to 17:23). The first three Sabres goals in Game 1 came on offensive zone plays, meaning they occurred five or more seconds after Buffalo entered the offensive zone.

After having 21 comeback wins this regular season (tied for seventh in NHL), the Sabres continue to prove they can win games in many different ways -- especially against each of the other playoff teams from the Atlantic Division (Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators). With continued stable goaltending from the tandem of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon, the Sabres -- who have not reached the Conference Final since 2007 -- could be equipped for a deep playoff run.