NHL EDGE stats: MacKinnon's case for Conn Smythe Trophy in 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we provide the underlying metrics behind Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche.

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Nathan MacKinnon has carried over his dominance from the regular season to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the Colorado Avalanche, and his elite advanced metrics have made him the front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

MacKinnon, who had three points (one goal, two assists) against the Minnesota Wild in Game 2, now has 10 points (four goals, six assists) in six games this postseason for undefeated Colorado (6-0 record). The 30-year-old has scored 11 goals in his past 13 playoff games and now ranks fifth in NHL history in career playoff points per game (1.34; minimum 50 games played) behind Wayne Gretzky (1.84), Mario Lemieux (1.61), Connor McDavid (1.53) and Leon Draisaitl (1.48).

This regular season, MacKinnon won the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy as the NHL's goal leader (53) and he won the Hart Trophy for most valuable player during the 2023-24 regular season. MacKinnon also led the NHL in even-strength goals (42), even-strength points (97) and shots on goal (350) this regular season; that marked the most even-strength points in a single season since Jaromir Jagr in 1995-96 (95).

Since 2020-21, MacKinnon ranks second in the entire NHL in points (647 in 425 games) behind McDavid (751 in 443 games). Considering MacKinnon's elite teammate, defenseman Cale Makar, won the Conn Smythe Trophy when the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup in 2022, the stage could be set for MacKinnon to claim the award if Colorado wins another championship. Makar is also having a strong postseason; he has five points (four goals, one assist) in six playoff games and tied for second in the entire NHL in even-strength goals (four; leads defensemen).

Here are three underlying reasons MacKinnon remains the top contender for the Conn Smythe:

1. Skating speed

This postseason, MacKinnon is third in the NHL in 20-plus mph speed bursts (38) behind McDavid (54) and Ryan McLeod (44). This regular season, MacKinnon ranked second in 20-plus mph speed bursts (455) behind McDavid (681).

MacKinnon has been thriving on a line with wing Martin Necas, who was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes in the Mikko Rantanen trade last season; Necas had a career-high 38 goals and 100 points in 78 regular-season games with the Avalanche this regular season. Another skating speed standout, Necas is tied with MacKinnon for fourth in 22-plus mph speed bursts (five each) this postseason and ranks eighth in 20-plus bursts during the playoffs (31). Necas had 13 speed bursts of at least 20 mph in Game 1, the most by any player in a single game this postseason.

The Avalanche, as a team, have the most 22-plus mph speed bursts (18) this postseason and rank fourth in 20-plus mph bursts (187) despite playing only six games during the playoffs so far. Beyond MacKinnon, Colorado has four players in the top 10 in max skating speed this postseason with Makar (23.92; first), Valeri Nichushkin (23.66; second), Necas and Brock Nelson (23.25 each; tied for eighth).

2. Midrange prowess

MacKinnon is tied for the NHL lead in midrange goals (three) this postseason and tied for seventh in midrange shots on goal (nine). This regular season, MacKinnon ranked second in both midrange goals (20) and midrange shots on goal (149) behind San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini (25 midrange goals; 159 midrange shots on goal).

The Avalanche, as a team, lead the NHL in midrange goals (11) this postseason, one more than the Wild (10; second), and are tied for third in midrange shots on goal (63). Makar is second among defensemen in midrange goals (two) this postseason behind Bowen Byram of the Buffalo Sabres (three).

During the regular season, MacKinnon was among the top forwards in all three major shot locations: 99th percentile in midrange shots on goal, 98th percentile in long-range shots on goal (32) and 96th percentile in high-danger shots on goal (83), showing how dangerous he is from all over the ice.

3. Supporting cast

In addition to MacKinnon's chemistry with Makar and Necas, he also frequently sees ice time with Artturi Lehkonen and/or Gabriel Landeskog in various situations. Landeskog, who returned from a long-term knee injury during the 2025 playoffs and played 60 games this regular season, has scored two high-danger goals this postseason (tied for seventh in the NHL) and also a long-range goal (tied for third).

Lehkonen ranks highly among forwards in high-danger categories; he was in the 95th percentile in high-danger shots on goal (80) and 87th percentile in high-danger goals (14) this regular season and ranks in the 81st percentile in high-danger shots on goal this postseason (six). 

Another key component of MacKinnon's supporting cast is forward Nazem Kadri, who was acquired from the Calgary Flames prior to the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline. Kadri and MacKinnon are linemates on the first power play for Colorado, which went 2-for-5 on the power play against the Wild in Game 2. The Kadri addition has helped the power play for the Avalanche, who are fourth in power-play conversion percentage (22.2) this postseason after ranking 27th in the regular season (17.1).

Kadri ranks in the 90th percentile among forwards in midrange shots on goal (eight) this postseason and is also in the 82nd percentile in offensive zone time percentage (45.9). Kadri, like MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog and others, was a part of the Avalanche's 2022 championship team.