BLOG: What to Watch for in 2024 NHL Draft Lottery

As the Blackhawks prepare to learn where their natural first-round pick will land during the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery, here is a breakdown of how the event will take place and what to watch for when watching live on Tuesday night (5:30 p.m. CT on ESPN and Sportsnet).

Teams have been slotted in the reverse order of the final regular-season standings -- with Chicago currently sitting at No. 2 overall -- and two lottery drawings will take place to determine the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks. The Blackhawks enter the night with the second-best odds (13.5%) at winning the No. 1 overall pick. The lowest possible draft pick the Blackhawks can be awarded is No. 4 overall.

The actual lottery drawings will take place behind closed doors just before the broadcast, with independent observers and media members overseeing the process. The final results will be shared live during the broadcast, counting down the 2024 NHL Draft order from the 16th overall pick with team logos for each corresponding slot are revealed on a display card by NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly.

If, as the cards are revealed during the broadcast, a team is not slotted in their projected pick, it means that they are one of the winning lottery teams and have moved up in the draft order. After a team is revealed to have moved up in the order, all other teams should still be revealed in sequential order of their odds, shifting down a spot in the order (unless they too have won a lottery drawing).

Here's a rundown of what to be on the lookout for with each card that is revealed:

REVEAL OF PICKS 14-16

Heading into the Draft Lottery, St. Louis (16), Detroit (15) and Pittsburgh (14) have the lowest chances to win the lottery drawing, but can only improve their drafting position by a maximum of 10 spots (e.g. No. 14 can only move to No. 4).

• Should one of these teams not be revealed in their original draft position and Minnesota (13) is revealed at No. 14, Chicago would be guaranteed a top-three pick pending the other lottery draw.
• If Minnesota (13) is revealed at the No. 15 pick, it would mean two of the teams slotted from 14-16 have won the lottery drawings and Chicago is guaranteed a No. 2 overall pick.
• If Minnesota is not revealed at the No. 15 pick and Philadelphia (12) is revealed at the No. 14 pick, it would mean one team slotted from 14-16 and Minnesota (13) will have won the lottery drawings and Chicago is guaranteed one of two picks: If Minnesota won the first lottery drawing (moving up to No. 3), the Blackhawks would be guaranteed the No. 4 overall pick. If Minnesota won the second lottery drawing (moving up to No. 4 or No. 5), the Blackhawks would be guaranteed No. 2 overall.

REVEAL OF PICKS 5-13

If a lottery draw winner is revealed between picks 14-16 and a second lottery draw winner is revealed between picks 5-12, Chicago would be guaranteed to pick No. 3 overall.

If picks 14-16 remain the same through the first three card reveals and there is at least one lottery winner revealed between picks 5-13, here are the possible outcomes:

• If two teams between 5-13 win are revealed to win the lottery draws, Chicago would be guaranteed the No. 4 overall pick. The top-three teams of San Jose, Chicago and Anaheim would all move down two spots in the order.
• If one team between 5-13 wins a lottery draw, the Blackhawks would be guaranteed a top-three pick -- knocked back a spot to the No. 3 overall pick unless they are the winners of the other lottery drawing and move up to No. 1 or maintain their No. 2 position entering the draft.

REVEAL OF TOP FOUR

If there are no changes in the projected order between picks 5-16, then both lottery winners are from within the top four teams. If that's the case here are the scenarios to watch for:

NO. 4 REVEAL

• If Chicago is announced as the No. 4 pick, then both Anaheim and Columbus have won the lottery draws, and will make the top two selections.
• If Anaheim is announced as the No. 4 pick, then Columbus has won a lottery drawing and the lowest Chicago can finish is No. 3.
• If Columbus is announced as the No. 4 pick, then both lottery winners are from within the top three teams, meaning Chicago can finish no lower than No. 3.

NO. 3 REVEAL

• If Chicago is announced as the No. 3 pick, then either Anaheim or Columbus have won a lottery draw and San Jose has won the other to remain in the top two.
• If Anaheim is announced as the No. 3 pick, then both Chicago and San Jose have won the lottery draws and will make the top two selections.
• If San Jose is announced as the No. 3 pick, then both Chicago and Anaheim have won the lottery draws and will make the top two selections.

NO. 1 REVEAL

For the top two picks, the NHL will announce which team owns the No. 1 overall pick, followed by the team which owns the No. 2 overall pick by default. 

• If Chicago is announced as the No. 1 pick, then the team won the first lottery drawing. 
• If San Jose is announced as the No. 1 pick and Chicago as the No. 2 pick, then San Jose won the first lottery drawing and Chicago won the second lottery drawing to retain their position in the draft order.