NHL draft lottery primer: Blue Jackets look to add a key player

Two weeks from today could go down as one of the most impactful days in the history of the Blue Jackets.
The NHL's draft lottery May 8 will determine where Columbus will pick in the upcoming amateur draft, with the Blue Jackets guaranteed a top-four pick. And there's a 13.5-percent chance the Blue Jackets will win the first overall pick, which could be a transformative moment for the franchise.
But no matter where the Blue Jackets fall, their reward for one of the toughest seasons in franchise history will be the opportunity to draft an excellent player to add to an already impressive collection of young talent.

"I'll be tuned in," CBJ alternate captain Zach Werenski said. "It's a big one. … I think it's a deep draft, which is a good thing in the position we're in. Whoever we get, it's going to be help for this team."
RSVP NOW: CBJ draft lottery watch party at Columbus Brewing Company Beer Hall
So what do CBJ fans need to know about the process that will determine where the Jackets pick when the draft begins June 28? Here's a primer on what will happen May 8.

The numbers

It's a bit of a complicated process, but there's some simple math that comes out of it. In the end, the Blue Jackets have a 13.5-percent chance at moving up to earn the No. 1 overall pick, a 14.1-percent chance of staying at No. 2, a 30.7-percent chance of dropping to No. 3 and a 41.7-percent chance of falling to No. 4.
How does it work? The Blue Jackets finished with 59 points on the season, tied with Chicago for 30th place in the league, one point ahead of last-place Anaheim. That gives the Ducks the best odds in the lottery, while the Blue Jackets have the second best because Chicago "wins" the tiebreaker with Columbus for 30th.
There are two lottery draws that will be held May 8, with the first one for the first overall pick. While all 16 teams that did not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs can win that draw, teams can move up only 10 slots, so if, say, Calgary -- which was the first team out of the playoffs -- wins the lottery, Anaheim will stay at one, while the Flames will move up 10 spots to earn the sixth overall pick. I
Meanwhile, if a team in the bottom 11 wins the lottery, they will move up to the No. 1 pick, while everyone will move down a slot.
Then there will be a second draw for the No. 2 overall pick, following essentially the same format.
The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the second lottery draw, based on which team wins the first.
If both draws are won by teams below the Blue Jackets in the standings, those teams will move up and Columbus will go down to the fourth selection. If just one of them is, the Jackets will move to third. If Anaheim wins the first draw and Columbus the second, the teams will stay in the same spots, while Columbus will move up to No. 1 if it wins the first draw.
The bad news? If you add up the percentages, there's more than a 72 percent chance the Jackets slide down. The good news? The Blue Jackets do have the second-best odds in the whole thing.
Columbus also owns the Los Angeles Kings' first-round pick in the draft; because the Kings are in the playoffs, the eventual placing of that selection will be determined by LA's postseason results and is not in the lottery.

The players

This is thought to be a stronger than usual draft class, which is good news for the Blue Jackets given where they will select.
But no player will be sought more than center
Connor Bedard
, who has already become a bit of a celebrity in the sport. Not just the presumed No. 1 overall pick, Bedard is thought by many to be a generational player and perhaps the best youngster to enter the draft since Connor McDavid back in 2015. Bedard has earned those plaudits thanks to a 71-72-143 line in 57 games with Regina that made him the highest scoring WHL player in more than 20 years. Add in a Canadian record of 23 points (9-14-23) at this year's World Junior Championship and Bedard is thought to be an immediate impact player in the NHL and a franchise cornerstone after that.
The draft is about more than just Bedard, though, as forwards
Adam Fantilli
,
Leo Carlsson
and
Matvei Michkov
have also been highly touted players for the past few years. Fantilli seems to have cemented himself in the eyes of many as the likely No. 2 pick, as the University of Michigan forward with size (6-2, 195) and skill posted 30 goals and 65 points in 36 games with the Wolverines this year and is the No. 2-ranked North American skater by NHL Central Scouting behind Bedard.
Named the top-rated international skater by Central Scouting, Carlsson (6-3, 198) spent this season with Orebro of the Swedish Hockey League and posted a 10-15-25 line in 44 games, and he's a tantalizing combination of size and skill down the middle. Michkov, a talented wing who is rated the No. 2 international skater by Central Scouting, had a 9-11-20 line in 30 games in the KHL with SKA and Sochi. He posted 12 goals at the 2021 World U-18 tournament to outpace Bedard and announce himself as a potential star down the road.
Other names to know include
USA U-18 forward Will Smith
, forward Zach Benson of Winnipeg of the WHL, Slovak forward Dalibor Dvorsky and Czech forward Eduard Sale.

The history

The Blue Jackets enter this year's draft with two first-round picks, continuing a trend, as the Jackets chose three players in the first round of the 2021 draft and two more in the opening round last year.
So far, three of those five picks -- 2021 selections Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson as well as 2022 pick David Jiricek -- have debuted in the NHL. Corson Ceulemans (2021) made his pro debut with Cleveland this season, while Denton Mateychuk spent this year serving as captain of Moose Jaw of the WHL.
The Blue Jackets last moved up in the lottery in 2016 when the team jumped from fourth to third, then chose forward Pierre-Luc Dubois out of the QMJHL. Columbus has picked first in the draft just once, moving up from third via trade in 2002 to select Rick Nash.