It’s mid-July, with the NHL draft and the height of the free agent frenzy now over, and the Blue Jackets haven’t made a ton of changes to the lineup as we to start to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.
Sure, a couple of players have been brought in, while a handful of others have left the organization. But by and large, new general manager Don Waddell hasn’t totally upset the apple cart as he goes into his initial season leading the Blue Jackets.
And in a lot of ways, that makes a ton of sense. Waddell spoke highly of the organization's highly rated prospect pool when he was hired in May, and while there are several veteran leaders on the team – and two more have been brought in through free agency in center Sean Monahan and defenseman Jack Johnson – the Blue Jackets are at a point where the maturation of the young players on the roster will be what leads to long-term success for the organization.
In other words, bringing in too many new pieces would likely be a fool’s errand, with those changes more likely to block the young players on the roster rather than truly lead to a major difference in the win-loss record.
Again, much of the story of the upcoming season will be in seeing how such young players as Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov, Kent Johnson, David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk continue to improve after a season in which many flashed their talents.
While Waddell has added a few pieces, so far the bigger story of the offseason has been departures, as Alexandre Texier was traded, Adam Boqvist was bought out and such players as Alex Nylander, Jake Bean and Nick Blankenburg were allowed to leave via free agency.
The result is the Blue Jackets have zeroed in, in many cases, on the players they think are the future of the organization, which makes this year’s task of filling out a potential opening night lineup a little easier than in past years.
It’s something we’ve come to do each July once the opening days of free agency are done and the roster starts to take shape, but one caveat we have to acknowledge right now is the trade request of Patrik Laine. While the talented wing remains a Blue Jacket, Waddell has acknowledged he’s helping Laine look for a new home, so there could be another domino to fall when it comes to the lineup based on a potential trade return. As such, we’ll also leave Laine out of our current projected lineup.
But for now, we’ll give it a try to project what things might look like come Oct. 10 in Minnesota. Take it all with a grain of salt, but here's our first guess at what we can put together for an opening lineup as the Blue Jackets approach the upcoming season.
Forwards
Johnny Gaudreau – Sean Monahan – Yegor Chinakhov
Boone Jenner – Adam Fantilli – Kirill Marchenko^
Kent Johnson^ – Cole Sillinger^ – Dmitri Voronkov
Justin Danforth – Sean Kuraly – Mathieu Olivier
Also in the mix: Gavin Brindley, Hunter McKown, Mikael Pyythia, Luca Del Bel Belluz, James Malatesta, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Dylan Gambrell, Owen Sillinger, Cayden Lindstrom
^Denotes the player remains an unsigned restricted free agent
Starting at the top, Waddell all but said when Monahan was signed that he’d likely slot in as the team’s No. 1 center. That would allow him to rekindle his connection with Gaudreau, a consistent linemate from 2014-15 through 2020-21 with Calgary; the two played more than 5,500 5-on-5 minutes together over that seven-season stretch, outscoring teams 271-226 in that time per Natural Stat Trick.
The bigger question remains who makes the most sense to put on the wing opposite Gaudreau, and we’ll start with Chinakhov for this exercise. He was on a nearly 30-goal pace a season ago while dealing with injuries, and his speed and explosiveness would add to the more veteran pairing; he’s also an elite finisher who would seem to work well with two players with playmaking skill.
The middle six offers some intriguing combinations, but starting down the middle, it seems most likely that Fantilli will hold down the No. 2 center spot in his second season. Waddell acknowledged on July 1 that the signing of Monahan also could allow the Blue Jackets to return Jenner to the wing, where his high-energy, hard-forechecking style has worked well in the past.
Jenner could still play down the middle quite a bit, but at the start here, we’ll list Sillinger as the No. 3 center after a strong finish to the 2023-24 season. We considered having Johnson and Marchenko flanking Fantilli – which would put three young, skilled players together – while putting Jenner and Voronkov on either side of Sillinger – that would be rather hard to play against, no? – but in the end we thought it might make more sense to split things up a bit.
If Jenner does move to the wing, putting him with Fantilli would make sense, as he could be an on-ice mentor and also someone who could help in the faceoff dot. Jenner would also play well with Marchenko, as he can either serve as a netfront presence for his shots or clean up rebounds given Kirill’s proclivity for shooting the puck.
Johnson and Sillinger also seem like a duo who could have some chemistry together, and the presence of Voronkov might open up some ice for those two youngers. It's still a relatively young third line but one that could mesh well if given the opportunity.
In the end, though, there’s probably a few combinations that might make sense, and several different lines will likely be tried in the early going to see who works well together.
The fourth line is probably the easiest to put together, as Danforth, Kuraly and Olivier have been a successful trio before. The three played 127 5-on-5 minutes together a season ago per MoneyPuck and the Blue Jackets had a 52.7 percent expected goal share in that time, so there’s a lot to like about a line that would be hard to play against but have some offensive upside as well.
Also in the mix: Picking a starting 12 was a bit easier this year than in past years, as the Blue Jackets have 12 players who stand out as having been regulars in past seasons. Of the group pushing for playing time, it will be most interesting to see Brindley at the start, as we know the second-round pick has NHL skills. At the same time, he’ll also have just turned 20 at the beginning of the season, so he seems likely to begin the year getting pro experience. in Cleveland. There are some good prospects in this group, but all of them would likely benefit from more time at the AHL level.
A 27-year-old center signed in free agency, Gambrell has 233 NHL games under his belt and could step in if needed. The team’s first-round pick, Lindstrom could knock down the door, but it seems more likely given the center depth that he’ll continue to develop at the junior level.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski – David Jiricek
Ivan Provorov – Damon Severson
Jack Johnson – Erik Gudbranson
Also in the mix: Jake Christiansen, Denton Mateychuk
The biggest question remaining with the Blue Jackets defensive corps is who gets to play on the top pair with Werenski, a two-time All-Star coming off a career-best season on the offensive end. He’s one of the best blueliners in the league and commands 25 minutes per night, but the Jackets are still looking for the right person to skate alongside him on the right side.
Last season, per MoneyPuck, Severson got the biggest chance with 456 minutes at 5-on-5, with the departed Boqvist next (333 minutes), then Gudbranson (233), with Jiricek skating only 43 minutes with the top CBJ defenseman.
In a perfect world, Jiricek makes the most sense there, but he’ll still be just 20 years old on opening night; while he’s not lacking for talent, he's still getting there in experience. He is coming off a really good playoff run with Cleveland, though, and we’ll put him there to start just because his style complements Werenski the best.
Provorov and Severson also seems like a natural pairing, and per MoneyPuck, the Blue Jackets had 52 percent of the expected goals with the duo together on the ice a season ago. Severson could easily move up and play with Werenski, but my gut tells me keeping this pairing together in the second slot could provide stability while also giving Jiricek a shot up top.
Then there’s the third pairing, where we’ll start with a pair of big, defensive-minded veterans in Johnson and Gudbranson. It’s another duo that seems to make sense, as they can take a fair number of defensive zone faceoffs and provide some consistency there given their combined 31 years of NHL experience. Johnson is also an accomplished penalty killer who was solid in his own zone a season ago.
Also in the mix: I put Johnson in the third spot on the left side to start, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see either Christiansen or Mateychuk earn their way into the lineup. Johnson was signed as veteran cover who can also be a leader on the back end, but if either of those youngsters is ready, they’ll earn plenty of playing time. Christiansen will be 25 on opening night and has proved all he needs to in the AHL, where he’s been an All-Star and one of the league’s highest-scoring defensemen the past few years. There are many in the CBJ organization who believe he could be ready to hold down a regular role in the NHL.
Mateychuk is coming off a dominant season at the junior level and might not need much seasoning, but my guess is the 20-year-old at least starts the season gaining pro experience in the AHL. It wouldn’t surprise me if it doesn’t take long for him to earn an NHL gig, though.
Goaltenders
Elvis Merzlikins/Daniil Tarasov
Also in the mix: Jet Greaves, Zach Sawchenko
Waddell has been adamant since his arrival that he wants to work with Merzlikins, who has a .889 save percentage the past two seasons and retains three seasons left on his contract. Merzlikins has played good hockey at times the past few years, but consistency has been the biggest issue; can the changes around the team help him get back to the level that made him a top-five finisher in the Vezina Trophy voting in 2019-20?
With Tarasov, there are two big questions. The first is if he can stay healthy after a few injury-plagued seasons, and the second is if the way he played at the end of the season – posting a .933 save percentage in his last 13 appearances – is the standard he can reach consistently. A highly touted prospect coming up the ranks, he’s 25 now, and Tarasov has the potential to be a No. 1 if he can get into a groove similar to the end of last season.
There’s certainly potential in this group, but there's also something to prove for each of the goalies at the top of the depth chart. Motivation shouldn't be in short supply.
Also in the mix: Greaves’ excellent season at both the AHL and NHL levels this past season showed he’s on the path to being a full-time NHLer, but there’s nothing wrong with him serving as the No. 3 goalie in the organization this coming season and continuing to work on his game. After all, the list of 23-year-old netminders who have NHL success isn’t particularly long. Right now, it appears that if everyone is healthy, he’ll form a duo with the veteran Sawchenko – signed from Vancouver this offseason – while 21-year-old Cleveland signee Pavel Cajan will also continue to gain experience in the wings.
