We're at the All-Star break, the traditional halfway point of any sport, even if it usually occurs past the halfway point of a season in most of them. That's the case for the Blue Jackets this year, but with seven games postponed, we're much closer to the actual midway point than we normally would be.
Columbus has played 43 games to this point and had a chance to get back to the .500 mark on Monday night before falling to the Panthers. That left the Blue Jackets at 20-22-1, with a ledger of 41 points that places the team fifth in the Metropolitan Division and 10th in the Eastern Conference.
The highs and lows of the Blue Jackets' first half
There was a lot to like about how Columbus started the year, with more to come
In many years that might mean the team was within shouting distance of the playoffs, but the Eastern Conference has become rather stratified this season. Boston holds the final playoff spot with 55 points, with Detroit in 46 and the Jackets next. The translation -- short of a massive winning streak, it will be hard for the Jackets to get back into the mix (and in fact, the eight playoff teams in the East might already be decided if history is any guide).
The first half of the season has had some tremendous moments for Columbus and some major disappointments. But what have we learned through those 43 games? Let's look back (and a bit ahead), shall we?
Five Thoughts
1. Ups and downs, to be expected:First off, 20 wins in 43 games certainly isn't great, but for a team that was almost uniformly picked to finish last in the Metro, it's not half bad either. The 12-6-0 start captivated CBJ fans, but things have crashed a bit back to reality with an 8-16-1 record since then. Let's call a spade a spade here -- the players on the ice are certainly trying to win every game, but this also was always going to be a season of transition for the Blue Jackets, with much of the veteran core that led to four straight playoff appearances now gone and a bevy of players taking on new roles, from the leadership core to those filling out the lineup (and those behind the bench as well, with a whole new coaching staff leading the way). Some people certainly have grown tired of hearing the Jackets are the youngest team in the league, but is reality, and in a league as hard and deep as the NHL, youth almost always means there's going to be ups and downs that a team has to learn from. On balance, there has been a lot to build off of to this point, including...
2. In praise of Jenner, Laine:Let's move our way down the lineup a bit. The Blue Jackets have gotten about what you'd expect from such veterans as Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jakub Voracek and Gus Nyquist, but it is worth highlighting the production of two players - Boone Jenner and Patrik Laine. We'll start with the captain, who has a team-high 18 goals and 30 points on the year. Jenner had 30 goals in 2015-16, but since then, 18 was his high-water mark in 2016-17. Let's be honest -- it felt like he was settling in as a mid-teens goal scorer, but it's on the table he hits 30 again. He's gotten some bounces to be sure -- anyone who scores from the net front like Jenner has to in order to rack up goals -- but he also has upped his play and led with his play. Jenner has turned in some massive games in his first season as a captain, which has been good to see. As for Laine, it's hard to say a 23-year-old is counted on as a team veteran, but Laine isn't your normal player. He can be a superstar goal scorer in this league, and this year he has a 10-11-21 line in 24 games (a 72-point pace over 82 games). Laine has done that despite missing time because of injury and dealing with the sudden death of his father, Harri. After a forgettable season last year, Laine has started to look a lot like his old self, which is nothing but a positive for the Jackets.
3. Stepping up:Moving on, let's think back to last year a bit. Not only did the team miss the playoffs and turn into sellers at the deadline, the Blue Jackets watched many of their young players struggle throughout the season. Alexandre Texier didn't score in the last 40-plus games, Andrew Peeke was in and out of the lineup, and other young players spun their wheels as much as they succeeded. This year has been a bit of a different story. At age 22, Texier found his game and became a key part of the attack, as before recent struggles with COVID and injuries, he had 9-9-18 in 22 games. Peeke suffered through a lost season a year ago, but he's redefined himself as a rugged defender at age 23 and looks like a key piece going forward. Let's add in someone like Adam Boqvist, who is still just 21 and has shown the elite offensive skill he's known for while working on his defensive game. There are some young players who should be big pieces of the future who have taken steps forward this season.
4. The rookies:Another intriguing part of the season has been watching rookie forwards Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakhov develop, and in my book, I'm pretty impressed so far. Let's start with Sillinger, who at age 18 is the youngest player in the NHL but has a 7-8-15 line in 40 games while impressing with his 200-foot game. Think of it this way -- Jack Hughes was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft and billed as a can't miss, superstar to be, and he had a 7-14-21 line in 61 games as a rookie. Now, as expected, he's one of the top young players in the league two years later, and Sillinger as the No. 12 overall pick is on his way to outpacing Hughes' marks as a rookie. That is impressive. Meanwhile, Chinakhov has five goals and eight points in 34 games, but anyone who has seen his shot to this point knows just how much skill is in the 20-year-old Russian's stick. He's also shown some pretty good instincts at times -- simply put, he could have more on the point scale if a few things had broken his way. Both players have games where they can be hard to find on the ice, but that's natural for NHL rookies. To me, I see things in each player that really make me think they can be impact players down the road, which is really what you want at this point in their careers.
5. The defense:This is where Columbus has struggled the most, placing 30th in the NHL with 3.67 goals allowed per game. It was even worse in January, with the Jackets giving up 4.36 goals per game in 14 contests. I get messages on social media from people all the time talking about the defensive woes, but let's be honest here -- what did you expect?!? Team defense is about more than just defensemen, but let's take a look at the blue line core. You have a heck of a player in Zach Werenski, but one who is getting used to a new role and increased minutes in the No. 1 spot. You have Boqvist and Jake Bean, who are young defensemen whose offensive talent has made them first-round picks but who came in with everyone acknowledging they were still learning the finer points of the defensive game. You have players like Peeke, Gavin Bayreuther and Gabriel Carlsson filling out the defense, all of whom entered the season with fewer than 50 NHL games played. Considering everyone agrees that defensemen take the most time to develop, of course this is where the ups and downs would be most pronounced.
Revisiting Four Predictions
Before the season, I made five (somewhat) bold predictions of what would or could happen this year for the Jackets.
You can read the whole thing here
, but let's see how I did so far.
1. Patrik Laine will set the franchise record for goals:OK, this one seems like it won't happen, but that's as much because of the 22 games Laine missed than anything else. With 10 goals in 24 games, he's on pace for 34 in an 82-game season, which still would be short of the record of 41 held by Rick Nash and Cam Atkinson, but not out of the realm of possibility. The thrust of this prediction was it would be a bounce-back season for Laine, and by and large he's done that.
2. Elvis Merzlikins wins the Vezina Trophy: I admitted this one would be hard to do with such a young team in front of him, but I did expect Merzlikins to play inspired hockey this year after an offseason of tremendous ups and downs. He got off to a red-hot start, but with a 3.39 GAA and .905 save percentage, it's now fair to say Merzlikins is not going to win the Vezina. It's hard to really get a true read on either CBJ goalie based on the inconsistencies in front of them; both have had excellent moments and games they'd want to be better.
3. The Blue Jackets don't finish last in the Metro:This was not exactly the spiciest take, but considering just about every media outlet around the league had Columbus eighth of eight, it felt like a stance that bucked the conventional wisdom. And at the halfway point, the Blue Jackets do sit ahead of Philadelphia, the Islanders and New Jersey. It's hard to say what the second half will hold, but so far, so good on this one.
4. Zach Werenski will lead NHL defensemen in goals again:I didn't do too well, did I? Werenski has six goals and 25 points so far, working much more as a distributor than a scorer to this point and placing tied for 20th among NHL d-men in tallies. Considering the fairly incomparable Cale Makar has 18 goals, I don't think Werenski is going to catch him. But it also has been fun to watch him figure out what it means to be a No. 1 defenseman - get ready for much more on this tomorrow - and I think Werenski is still a pretty special player.
Three Things To Watch
With 39 games to go, here's a few things to keep in mind as we come down the stretch.
1. Who steps forward?I wrote earlier about some CBJ players who have made a noticeable impact to this point, but the obvious question is - who is next? There's still half a season to go, so there's plenty of time to right a season that hasn't started the way a player has wanted to. Looking at the younger player on the roster, with the recent injuries, does Emil Bemstrom have one of his hot streaks to show his goal-scoring touch is back? Does Liam Foudy earn some time after earning big minutes in the AHL? Do we see Trey Fix-Wolansky or Jake Christiansen move up? It'll be fascinating to be see what more can be learned about the young players in the organization from here.
2. The trade deadline:One of the top questions I get from fans on social media and in radio interviews is what will happen at the trade deadline for the Jackets. I'll be honest -- sometimes I'm a little reticent to talk about specific players because it feels a bit unfair as the team writer. This is their livelihood and it's not necessarily my spot to play armchair GM. But it's also pretty fair to expect this team to be active at the deadline, as the goal right now is for Jarmo Kekalainen and crew to continue building the next great Blue Jackets team. To do that, some deals to keep acquiring assets might be the move, especially as teams try to load up for the playoffs.
3. After that...:We can't predict the future, but it is worth keeping in mind that two very intriguing players could join the Blue Jackets at the end of the season. 2018 second-round draft pick Kirill Marchenko sees his contract with SKA St. Petersburg expire at the end of the KHL season, while 2021 first-round pick Kent Johnson seems ticketed to turn pro when the University of Michigan's campaign ends. Both of those could be in late March/early April, and traditionally, those players often sign and then make their NHL debuts when they get the chance. These are two dynamically skilled offensive players who could get their feet wet at the highest level down the stretch. Talk about fun, right?
