NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the St. Louis Blues resurgence in the standings and upside if they make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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After the St. Louis Blues’ 4-1 win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday, their season-high fifth straight victory, they are occupying the Western Conference Second Wild Card spot thanks to a 12-2-2 record in their past 16 games. The Blues extended their home point streak to eight games (7-0-1), marking their longest run since Nov. 18, 2021 to Jan. 13, 2022 (12-0-1).
Rather than rebuilding after missing each of the past two postseasons, the Blues have aggressively retooled on the fly and benefited from an in-season coaching change. Here are five reasons the Blues are playoff contenders again and have sneaky appeal to pull off an upset if they qualify:
1. Binnington’s turnaround
Goalie Jordan Binnington, who backstopped the Blues’ Stanley Cup championship in 2019 with two clutch Game 7 victories, had an underwhelming start to this season. But his brilliance for Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, specifically in the winner-take-all championship game, has sparked a bounce-back performance for his NHL team down the stretch of the season.
Although Binnington's save percentage in the NHL this season has remained the same before and after the best-on-best international tournament (.897 in each span), he is 7-2-0 in nine games after the 4 Nations Face-Off (which was played Feb. 12-20), including four games with a .920 or better SV%, compared to 15-19-4 in 39 games prior. Binnington is clearly benefiting from more goal support; since the Blues returned to action Feb. 22 after the 4 Nations break, they are second in the NHL in goals per game (3.93), trailing only the Washington Capitals (4.00).
Per NHL EDGE stats, Binnington has a plus-13 goal differential with the Blues after the 4 Nations Face-Off compared to minus-17 prior to the tournament. Binnington has also improved in midrange save percentage after 4 Nations (.891) compared to before the tournament (.872); the League average in the category is .888.
Binnington's improvement also extends to long-range save percentage (from 0.957 before tournament to 0.980 after; League average: .970), while reliable backup Joel Hofer ranks in the 87th percentile in that category (.986).
2. Holloway's breakout season
Acquired from the Edmonton Oilers by a successful offer sheet in the offseason, Dylan Holloway has been one of the breakout players of the NHL season. With expanded usage for the Blues (16:49 per game) compared to his first two seasons with the Oilers (11:22 last season; 9:35 as rookie in 2022-23), Holloway has shattered his previous career highs in goals (23; second on Blues), assists (34; second on team), points (57 in 70 games; tied for second), even-strength goals (17; second), even-strength points (44; tied for second), power-play goals (six; tied for first), power-play points (13; second) and shots on goal (163; second).
Since Jan. 1, Holloway leads the Blues in points (31 in past 32 games). Per NHL EDGE stats, he ranks highly among forwards in various advanced metrics this season:
• 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts: 180 (95th percentile)
• Total skating distance: 206.73 miles (91st percentile)
• Top shot speed: 97.99 mph (98th percentile)
• Average shot speed: 61.61 mph (84th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 47 (82nd percentile)
• High-danger goals: 12 (86th percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 58 (90th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 9 (90th percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 24 (95th percentile)
3. Defensive additions
Defensemen Cam Fowler, acquired from the Anaheim Ducks this season, and Philip Broberg, acquired from the Oilers in a separate successful offer sheet in the offseason, have helped the Blues overcome the injury absences of Torey Krug (ankle surgery; has not played all season) and, more recently, Colton Parayko (knee; out long term).
The Blues are tied for sixth in the NHL with 17 long-range goals, with 13 of them being scored by defensemen (tied for sixth at position). Per NHL EDGE stats, Fowler, who has 25 points (seven goals, 18 assists) in 40 games since the trade to St. Louis, ranks fifth in the League in long-range goals (five). Veteran Justin Faulk is also among the defenseman leaders in midrange shots on goal (28; 90th percentile).
Broberg, who scored an overtime goal to defeat the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday, has scored two high-danger goals (88th percentile) this season and is among the defenseman leaders in top skating speed (23.48 mph; 97th percentile) and 20-plus mph speed bursts (74; 92nd percentile). Parayko, despite his injury absence, is tied for third among defensemen in high-danger goals (five; behind only Cale Makar, Zach Werenski's six each).
4. Forward depth
Beyond their top offensive players, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and Holloway, the Blues have benefited from strong second halves by Jake Neighbours (playing on top line), captain Brayden Schenn (second line) and rookie Zack Bolduc (third line, first power play).
Per NHL EDGE stats, Kyrou ranks 10th in the entire League in midrange shots on goal (88). Other standouts from the Blues forward group in midrange shots on goal include Holloway, Thomas (58; 90th percentile), Schenn (48; 85th percentile) and Pavel Buchnevich (46; 84th percentile). Not far behind Holloway, Thomas ranks in the 88th percentile in midrange goals (eight), and Buchnevich ranks in the 79th percentile in high-danger goals (10).
In terms of high-danger shots on goal, Neighbours (57; 90th percentile) ranks ahead of Kyrou (53; 87th percentile) and Holloway. Bolduc ranks highly among forwards in average shot speed (61.31 mph; 83rd percentile), providing a new element to the first man-advantage unit.
5. Coaching change
The Blues are 27-16-6 since firing coach Drew Bannister on Nov. 24 and replacing him with Jim Montgomery, who was fired by the Boston Bruins on Nov. 19; Montgomery was previously an assistant with St. Louis earlier in his career. Since Montgomery took over, the Blues’ offensive rankings have improved in terms of goals per game (3.22; seventh), power-play percentage (23.0; 15th) and 5-on-5 shooting percentage (10.5; second) compared to before the coaching change; from the start of the season to Nov. 24, the Blues ranked much lower in goals per game (2.36; 30th), power-play efficiency (16.7; 25th) and 5-on-5 shooting percentage (7.8; tied for 21st).
Per NHL EDGE stats, the Blues, as a team, are one of the best at generating chances from midrange areas; they rank third in the League in midrange shots on goal (608) behind the Vegas Golden Knights (634) and Colorado Avalanche (629).
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More: NHL EDGE stats on Blues
