45 days of hockey Christmas: Marc Bergevin edition

MONTREAL -- To say Marc Bergevin and co. have been busy in the last two months would be the understatement of the decade.

Since early September, the Canadiens have made 36 moves at the NHL and AHL level.
Yes, you read that right. 36.
It's hockey's version of the Twelve Days of Christmas.
Sing it with me now:
13 players extended, nine AHL deals, six NHL trades, five European assignments, two UFA signings, and a buyout in a pear tree.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at some of the underlying numbers involved in some of these deals, to get a better idea as to why pundits and fans alike have reached new levels of appreciation for the current front office team.
Jeff Petry
For many years, Jeff Petry was the embodiment of an underrated defenseman. And while the hockey world finally started appreciating the value of puck-moving defensemen, there's always the underlying criticism that puck-moving defensemen can be defensive liabilities.
But that's simply not the case when it comes to Petry.
In fact, when Petry is on the ice, the Canadiens allow far fewer shots and scoring chances than the team and League average.
He's also a perfect case study to highlight the difficulties involved in judging a player in a different system. There are simply too many variables to get a perfect read. Variables like teammates, coaches, the strength of competition, usage, and more.
Though there were certainly hints that Petry was undervalued prior to his trade to the Canadiens, his on-ice statistics -- which were hovering below 50 percent -- saw a significant uptick shortly after he arrived in Montreal in 2014-15.
(On-ice statistics are some of the measures used to judge a player's impact during his shifts. For example, in 2019-20, when Petry was on the ice, the Canadiens controlled 56.7 percent of the shots.)

Simply put, Petry was a diamond in the rough that was given an opportunity to shine in Montreal.
His value extends well beyond his ability to mitigate the number of scoring chances his goaltenders face. He's also one of the most consistent defensemen in the League from a production standpoint.

Of his 74 career regular-season and playoff goals, 15 have been game winners, yet another ridiculous statistic tied into Petry's importance to the Canadiens.
He's also the basis for a hockey theory that has proven indisputable so far: The Petry effect™.
The Petry effect™ states that any and every player who shall skate alongside Jeff Petry will invariably see their underlying numbers skyrocket and their production increase significantly, even if they're facing a much tougher level of competition than usual.
To recap: Petry improves the defense, is among the most reliable and productive defensemen in the League, scores game-winning goals at a better rate than most NHL All-Stars, and makes his defensive partners better.
Oh, and his family is adorable, which is the type of intangible that you simply cannot dissect with numbers, unless you're using the 100 emoji.
Brendan Gallagher
By now you've probably heard about Gallagher's ability to dominate the ice at 5-on-5. In fact, some say that if you listen real closely at night, you can hear someone spout out random Gallagher-related statistics from the top of Mont Royal.
But just in case you haven't heard my voice, err, I mean, that unknown voice, here's a refresher.
Since 2017-18, when filtering by 5-on-5 play, Gallagher ranks fifth in goals among all NHLers, first in shots, first in high-danger shots, first in driving opposing goaltenders out of their minds*, first in rush attempts, first in rebounds created, first in shot share among forwards and first in expected goals.
Here's the kicker: he's managed all this with fewer minutes than his competition.
For example, Gallagher's 331 individual high-danger shots are far and away the most in the League over the course of the last three years. Second place in that particular category belongs to Nathan MacKinnon, who clocks in at 304 high-danger shots.
The biggest difference? Gallagher did so in almost 800 fewer minutes on the ice than his closest competition.
The same applies to his goal-scoring ability, which, in terms of raw numbers, rivals the best snipers in the League. Only a handful of players have scored more 5-on-5 goals than Gallagher in recent years. Of the four that have outscored Gallagher, three of them were first-overall draft picks (Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid).
That's a rather impressive feat, especially when you consider Gallagher was selected in the fifth round, but it gets even better.
Once we filter the results per 60 minutes of ice time, Gallagher's goal-scoring ability at 5-on-5 becomes a little more evident.

Obviously, when it comes to Gallagher, there's much more to it than just numbers.
He'll burst through multiple walls like the Kool-Aid man simply to score the lone goal in a losing effort. That's part of what makes him special. He has no off switch and he'll do whatever it takes to will his team to victory.
But even if we remove all the intangible elements that make Gallagher special - his tenacity, his work ethic, his ability to make honey badgers envious with his ridiculous determination, and his endless supply of energy- and based our analysis purely on numbers, he'd still be one of the best 5-on-5 players in modern hockey history.
While there's no doubt his intangibles have led him to this point, it would be a mistake to state Gallagher achieves his 5-on-5 dominance through hard work alone.
Many players work hard, but Gallagher combines his determination with an undeniable level of hockey skills.

In the end, that's really what makes him a special player. He's the epitome of the complete package.
Defense
"You can never have enough defensemen," - every general manager in the history of the NHL, including Marc Bergevin.
With the addition of Joel Edmundson, the Canadiens currently have almost a dozen players who will compete for a roster spot on the blue line once the 2020-21 season gets underway, the vast majority of whom have several hundred games of experience under their belts.
After bolstering the collective experience and size on the back end, Marc Bergevin added another piece of the puzzle this summer: a reliable and experienced backup goaltender.
Jake Allen's potential impact should not be ignored. In fact, I'd argue it might end up being the best move Bergevin has made in recent years.
First and foremost, a rested Carey Price is a dominant Carey Price. And the only way you can rest Price is if you have a reliable backup goaltender who won't just hold the fort, but will actually provide the type of goaltending that will lead his team to victory even if they're not playing at their best.
That's where Allen's 5-on-5 save percentage over the last three years (0.922) and his goals saved above average (4.9) should come into play.
There's also the issue of the condensed schedule in the upcoming season, and perhaps beyond. We simply don't know what the schedule-makers will come up with given the current sports landscape, but we do know there are good odds rest won't come easy for starting goaltenders that do not have reliable backups. Allen acts as an insurance policy at the most crucial position in the sport.
Rocket reinforcements
We don't quite know when the AHL season will get underway, but the Laval Rocket will have plenty of reinforcements at the ready once it does.
Beyond the NHL extensions given to players like Michael McNiven, Joseph Blandisi, Jake Lucchini and others, the Canadiens added or extended the contract of nine AHL players, including Kevin Lynch, one of the most reliable forwards in Joel Bouchard's stable.
Given the rapid influx of high-end prospects arriving in Laval, the coaching staff must find a delicate balance between winning and development, with an onus on the latter. Lynch is the exact type of player that should facilitate that high-rope act, given that he has absolutely no qualms when used as a role player, but also has the ability to play in the top-six if the need should arise.
Josh Anderson
Mister Anderson…
Now, before we get into the value Josh Anderson brings to the team; high-danger goals, speed and an ability to hold his own physically, we should discuss his results last season, which were admittedly underwhelming.
There's a certain truth when it comes to statistics: there will almost always be outliers. The key is to determine which season was the true representation of a player's worth.
When it comes to Anderson, who's career shooting percentage at 5-on-5 tends to hover at around 10 percent, last season was clearly the outlier and the odds that his flukey shooting percentage repeats are rather low. The one-time downtick should rectify itself going forward, especially given Anderson will be playing on a team that tends to dominate the shot clock.
Now, onto the fun stuff: Anderson tends to make a positive impact on his team when it comes to goals, expected goals, and high-danger chances.
And he doesn't just score his goals by bullying defensemen, though that's certainly within the realm of possibility given his size.
He has the type of shooting talent that allows him to beat goaltenders even when they have a clear view of the shot, whether it be on the backhand or forehand. Combine his shooting talent with speed and a penchant for finding high-danger scoring areas, and you have all the necessary ingredients for a highly-touted forward who has the ability to break a game wide open when push comes to shove.
Tyler Toffoli
When it comes to scoring goals, there's an old hockey adage that rings true to this very day: put the puck on net and good things will happen.
There are very few players who can rival Gallagher when it comes to generating shots in relation to their ice time.
Tyler Toffoli happens to be one of those players, ranking seventh overall in the NHL over the course of the last three seasons in that category.

His shot output partially explains why he's managed to score over 20 goals four times in his career, including a 30-goal effort in 2015-16, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

Much like Gallagher, Toffoli's underlying numbers are flat-out excellent.
With very few exceptions, throughout his career, Toffoli's on-ice shot share, high-danger shot share, and goal share numbers have been well above the league average, hovering somewhere between 55 and 60 percent.
When it comes to players that should seamlessly fit into a team that already puts an onus on controlling the play, Toffoli clearly fits the bill, especially when you consider he's shown a constant ability to score goals at every level.
\not yet an official NHL stat...
All statistics via [Natural Stat Trick]*