Caps in the Mailbox: March 8, 2023

Mike Vogel answers questions submitted from fans after the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline. Submit your question at WashCaps.com/InTheMailbox.

Dominic S. from Jacksonville, FL: Is there any way this team could've been contenders this year with all the injuries they had?
Anything is possible, but it would have required some impressive needle-threading. Eventually, the onslaught of injuries became too much, and that's because it wasn't even contained to this season. As I type this, the Caps have played 147 straight games - all of last season and all of this season - without a full deck of cards, with at least one player out of the lineup. And typically, it's been at least three players out and occasionally the length of the list of ailing has stretched into double digits, and that's a significant chunk of the roster.
Every injury and lineup absence has an impact on at least one forward line/defensive pairing, and when several players are missing at the same time, the effect is multiplied. Teams build depth during the offseason to withstand the inevitable injuries that come to every team every season, but sometimes the depth simply isn't sufficient to keep up with the number of injuries and the length of absence from the injuries. The identity of the injured players matters as well. If star players/big minute players are out for extended periods or if the injuries are concentrated on one area of the lineup, the effects can be devastating.
Last season, the Caps had 10 different players miss 10 or more games because of injuries and illness, and several of those players were key performers or expected to be key performers. Anthony Mantha missed 45 games, T.J. Oshie missed 38, Nick Backstrom missed 34, Carl Hagelin missed 29, Nic Dowd missed 18. Some games, the Caps played without several of those players, and with others missing as well.
Even with a handful of players missing virtually every night, the Caps got off to a strong start and had a 14-4-5 record at the end of November, 2021, tied for the fifth best record in the League at that point. This was largely possible because their top forward trio of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson were all at or near the tops of their respective games for that period of time. Ovechkin had 19 goals in those 23 games, one off the League lead. Kuznetsov was tied for fourth in the NHL in scoring with 27 points and Wilson was tied for 14th with 23 points.
But the top line couldn't keep up that pace all season. The injuries never relented, the Caps never had a full complement of players for any of their 82 games, and over the course of a long season it caught up with them and their overall team performance. And when Tom Wilson was lost early in the first period of Game 1 of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, it was an injury the Caps weren't able to overcome, similar to the Backstrom injury in first period of Game 1 in first round of 2020 playoffs.
This season, the Caps knew they'd be missing Backstrom and Wilson for the front half of the season at least, and they knew that Hagelin was likely to miss the entire season. They planned accordingly in the offseason, bringing in Dylan Strome and Connor Brown, and re-signing Marcus Johansson, moves that might not have been made if the team was fully healthy.
Four games into the season, Brown was lost for the remainder of the season and the Caps were suddenly trying to replace the guy they got to replace Wilson. Picking up Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Sonny Milano early in the season mitigated those absences somewhat, and the Caps were pleased enough with the performances of Strome, Aube-Kubel and Milano that they signed them all to contracts for next season, and beyond on the cases of Strome and Milano.
Late in October, Oshie and John Carlson were lost to injury. Losing Carlson for six games was tough; Washington won only one game (1-3-2) without its top defenseman. When Carlson caught a puck to the head in the Dec. 23 game against Winnipeg and was lost for "the long term," as Caps coach Peter Laviolette put it, the writing was on the wall.
Carlson is the one player the Caps can't do without. From the start of the 2017-18 season through games of March 6, the Caps have a regular season record of 249-141-46, the seventh best record in the NHL over that span from a points percentage (.624) standpoint. But Washington has won only 17 of the 45 games it has played without Carlson over that same span (17-23-5, a .433 points pct.)
This season, the Caps are 18-10-2 (.633) in the 30 games in which Carlson has played. They are 13-18-4
(.400) in the 35 games he has missed. They miss him on the power play, on the penalty kill, and they especially miss him at 5-on-5 and on the breakout.
This season, the Caps again have had 10 players miss at least 10 games because of injury/illness. While last season's club accrued 288 man-games lost to injury, this year's model is up to 364 man-games lost and counting. And that's with 17 games still remaining in the season. This year's list includes Brown (61 games), Wilson (49), Backstrom (43), Carlson (35), Oshie (17), Dmitry Orlov (16), Martin Fehervary (14), and Dowd (13).
So while it's possible they could have contended with all the injuries they've had this season, it's highly unlikely and improbable. This team is virtually certain to finish with well over 400 man-games lost to injury this season, the most since the 1998-99 team lost 510 man-games to injury. That '98-99 team finished with just 68 points, a year after advancing to the Stanley Cup final. This year's team is sitting at 68 points too, but with 17 games still to play.

Ted F. from Rhode Island: What are the chances that Dmitry Orlov comes back to us this summer?
We'll start this one the same way we started the last question, by stating that anything is possible. My sense was that the Caps and Orlov were never close on a contract extension - both on term and on dollars - which makes a sudden meeting of the minds less likely moving forward. The recent addition of Rasmus Sandin as a top four left-handed defenseman along with Martin Fehervary would also make an Orlov return less likely. It's also imperative for the Caps to try to get younger and faster around the edges of their roster while their Stanley Cup champion core remains intact, because those core players are becoming older and slower.
And I'll end this one by saying the same thing I said at the end of the first question, it's unlikely and improbable. Washington has greater needs elsewhere on its roster, which we are likely to address here to some extent as we move through this list of questions.

Daniel B. from Arkansas: What youth should we keep eye on in the AHL?
This season, the guys to keep an eye on in Hershey are the still youthful prospects the Caps drafted relatively high in recent years. The obvious inclusions here are forwards Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre and defensemen Vincent Iorio (currently up in the NHL with the Caps), all of whom were selected in the first two rounds of recent drafts. All three are 22 or younger and should have NHL futures ahead of them.
I would also keep an eye on Ethen Frank, the college free agent who started this season with a Hershey contract before being signed to an NHL deal for next season just last week. Frank turned 25 last month, and he played five seasons of collegiate hockey at Western Michigan, but he has made a significant splash in the AHL as a rookie this season, making the AHL All-Star squad. Frank is tied for the AHL lead among rookies with 24 goals and is tied for fourth among rookie scoring. He made the jump from NCAA to AHL, and could get a chance to make the last big jump next season with a strong training camp showing.
Additionally, I still believe 24-year-old Beck Malenstyn would be a good fit for the left side of the Caps' fourth line last season.

Rich B. from San Antonio, TX: What is the strategy to get Alex Ovechkin the support he needs and for the team to be competitive?
Some of this has been outlined above, with the addition of younger players such as Strome and Milano for next season and beyond. The Caps have stated their intention to remain competitive and to avoid a full teardown/rebuild during the final three seasons of Ovechkin's contract. That's going to involve injecting as much speed and youth and skill into the rest of the of the lineup as salary cap space will permit.
Resigning Nick Jensen for three years is another example. Jensen is arguably the best skater on the team and a guy who has demonstrated incremental improvement in his game over his four seasons here. If they were to try to replace Jensen on the open market this summer, I don't think they would have been able to fill his slot on the right side in their top four as adequately without spending more in both term and dollars.
I believe they will need to find a way - via trade or free agency - to inject a young and skilled player or two into their top six this summer. Too many games this season, the Caps have not been able to score more than two goals, and it's difficult to win consistently in this League if you're not scoring three or more goals per game on a more regular basis. They need some speedy and skillful threats in their top six, some guys with speed who are capable of playing fast and scoring 20 or more goals.
That won't be easy to pull off, but Brian MacLellan has a track record of stating his needs/wants at the end of every season and then going out and checking off all the boxes before training camp.
Harrison B. from Alexandria, VA: How active do you expect Washington to be in the offseason?
I believe they will be active in trying to improve their forward group via trade and/or free agency. As outlined above, they need to get younger and faster, but they also need so consistent and dependable production from their top six forwards. Some of the players currently seeing minutes in those roles haven't been able to deliver this season, although they have in the past.

Willy G. from Adams County, PA: Any word on Connor Brown's recovery?
It's ongoing. Wilson needed eight months to get back on the ice after his torn ACL, and that same timetable would have Brown ready to roll sometime around mid-June, when there is no hockey left to be played.
I've always really liked Brown's game and what he brings to the table, so if all goes smoothly with his recovery and if his ask in term and dollars is reasonable, I wouldn't mind seeing him re-signed over the summer.

Paul O. from Chesapeake, VA: With three defensemen locked up for next season, and two RFAs likely to stay, what is the consensus the defensive pairs will look like next season?
I'm not sure what the pairs will look like, or what the lines will look like for next season. A lot can happen to a roster over a six- or seven-month period of time, especially when most of that time is comprised of the offseason.
That said, I've liked how Jensen and Fehervary work together, and I liked how Fehervary and Carlson played together last season. We know that the Caps will have Alex Alexeyev, Fehervary and Sandin on the left side and they'll have Carlson and Jensen on the right. Ideally, they either re-sign Trevor van Riemsdyk to an extension or find a third righty in the trade/free agent market. Iorio is likely to need more AHL seasoning, but I wouldn't rule him out.
I also think people get too hung up on lines and pairs and who should be playing with whom. I think it's more important to build a roster that has a good mix of stars and complementary players, some versatile players, some role players, some special teams players, some physical players and some guys with upside. Regardless of the composition of the roster, lines and pairs are going to be fluid and they're going to change throughout the course of an 82-game season. That's never going to change.
Build a team that's diverse in its attributes and has some guys who are capable of filling in - or moving up, down or horizontally on the depth chart - at various positions in the event of slumps or injuries, and then figure out which players fit best with which others. Over the course of 82 games, you're going to see most defensemen playing alongside every one of the others at some point anyway.

Maxime M. from Quebec: Do you think the young guys like McMichael, Protas and Lapierre can have a roster spot on the team next season?
I think all three of those players could have roster spots in Washington next season, but each of them will have to earn it. Nothing is given and everything is earned in the NHL, and teams that plan for young and unproven players to assume significant roles over an 82-game season are setting themselves up for disappointment.
As noted earlier, the Caps are intent on contending for the playoffs and a Stanley Cup in the three seasons ahead. If the team were in a rebuilding mode, it would be easier to pencil those players into the lineup right now and let them learn and grow on the job. On a team that is bent on contending, guys like McMichael and Lapierre can inject some skill and speed - which as we've noted above are needed in Washington - but only if they can handle the rigors and the rollercoaster of playing 14-18 productive minutes a night over a six-month 82-game season.
A rebuilding team like Chicago can hand out jobs and roster spots to players and let the players themselves determine which of them will be around for the long haul. The Caps are in a different situation and a different place in their life cycle, and they should absolutely want those players on their roster and in their lineup for many reasons. And they should give those players an opportunity to nail down a place in the lineup, not just on the roster.
That said, they also need the organizational depth with which to pivot to another player in the event that one or more of them are not ready for prime time.
Jacob M. from Greenville, SC: With the team retooling, do you think we will see more extensions or FA signings in the 3 years or less area to match the end of Alex Ovechkin's deal?
I think it may depend on the age/future/projection/role of the player signing the extension. For players at or close to 30 years of age, it may make sense to keep the term to match the end of Ovechkin's deal. But for younger players such as Sandin and Fehervary, it may make sense to lock them up beyond the end of Ovechkin's contract.
And when Wilson's deal expires at the end of next season, I could absolutely see the Caps going beyond the end of Ovechkin's deal to keep him in the fold for years to come.
Krista H. from Elizabethtown, PA: Can we give Holtby a one day contract and let him retire a Washington Capital?
I honestly would love to see something like that, and I believe that such an event/occurrence is within the realm of possibility. But the first step is for Holtby himself to reach the point where he is ready to make that announcement.