fourth line MV

In the aftermath of Sunday’s thrilling 4-3 victory over the Los Angeles Kings at Capital One Arena, Caps’ coach Spencer Carbery agreed with a suggestion that Washington’s line of Beck Malenstyn, Nic Dowd and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel has been the team’s most consistent to this point of the season. The Dowd trio manufactured three of Washington’s four goals in the win over Los Angeles, including the tying and winning tallies in the third period. Including those three goals against Los Angeles, Dowd and his linemates have created seven of Washington’s last dozen even-strength goals over the team’s last six games.

What’s crazy is that the trio has played together for barely more than two-thirds – 26 of 38 – of the team’s games this season. And manufacturing goals is way down the list of the Dowd line’s job responsibilities; it's ostensibly a checking line with a primary focus of neutralizing the top lines of the opposition by any means necessary.

And finally, Carbery may actually be underselling the significance of the Dowd line a bit. The trio is likely not just the team’s most consistent line, but also its best and arguably its most important line, as we can see by looking at how Washington has typically won – and lost – games to this point in the 2023-24 season.

But let’s not bury the lede here; let’s begin by pointing out what’s truly astounding about the Dowd line. The Capitals’ trio of Malenstyn, Dowd and Aubé-Kubel is one of only 17 lines in the NHL this season to have played 240 or more minutes together at even strength (from moneypuck.com), this despite the fact that they didn’t take the ice together for the first time until Nov. 10, a dozen games into the campaign. And not only that, they’re putting up offensive numbers on par with the League’s best lines – from a goals percentage standpoint – all while effectively shutting down some of those same lines.

If NHL forward lines aren’t getting the job done, coaches don’t keep them together. That’s why there are only about half as many lines who have played that much together as there are teams in the NHL. Consistency is elusive on the ice, and patience is not plentiful behind the bench.

Through Sunday’s NHL activity, the aforementioned trio – Washington’s “fourth” line by most depth charts and practice and warm-up line rushes – incredibly ranks second among those 17 lines in percentage of goals for (76.5%). They’re a bit closer to the first-place triad of Florida’s Sam Reinhart, Sasha Barkov and Evan Rodrigues (81.8%) than they are to the third-place group, Los Angeles’ Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar and Quinton Byfield (67.9%).

The Barkov and Kopitar lines are the types of lines the Dowd trio is typically tasked to play against on a night in, night out basis. Being able to hold their own offensively against the very same lines they’re assigned to check on a nightly basis is a remarkable achievement for the Dowd line, because they’re playing at a significant disadvantage.

Dowd’s line has been on the ice together for a grand total of just 18 offensive zone draws (per naturalstattrick.com) – that’s less than one per game – and its rate of 8.37 percent of total draws taken in the offensive zone is far and away the lowest among the aforementioned group of 17 forward lines, and it has to be the lowest of any line in the NHL that’s spent any appreciable amount of time together.

Among the group of 17 lines with more than 240 minutes together, the closest unit to Dowd’s in terms of offensive zone draws and deployment is Winnipeg’s trio of Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry and Nino Niederreiter, which has taken 36.7 percent of its draws in the offensive zone. The Lowry line has a 64 percent goal rate this season.

Dowd’s line has scored 13 goals and has yielded just four goals against in nearly 248 minutes on the ice together this season. Among the 17 lines who’ve skated 240 or more minutes together, no line has yielded fewer goals against. Given the sheer number of times the Dowd line has started in the defensive zone – 197 as compared to 18 in the offensive zone – and the caliber of players the line is typically deployed against, it’s a been a staggeringly good couple of months for the line.

What’s fascinating is that the Dowd line came together in the aftermath of a loss at the hands of the aforementioned Barkov line at Capital One Arena on Nov. 8. The Barkov Gang scored twice at evens that night, including the game-tying tally in the final four minutes. Reinhart won it for the Panthers in overtime, 4-3.

Two nights later, the Caps were in New Jersey to face the Devils in the front end of a set of road back-to-backs. Dowd returned to the lineup after a nine-game injury absence, and Aubé-Kubel was recalled from Hershey to replace Anthony Mantha on the roster; Mantha had been injured in the Florida game.

On his third shift of the season, Aubé-Kubel scored to give the Caps a 1-0 lead. Fifteen seconds later, Malenstyn scored his first goal of the season, the first of 13 the Dowd trio has cobbled together this season. Washington went on to win, 4-2, sealing a late lead without incident.

And thus, the line was born.

“He’s a stabilizer of the bottom six in general, because you can deploy him [in other ways],” said Carbery of Dowd’s return to the lineup after that Nov. 10 game in Newark. “For the first time this year, we had sort of our natural – quote, unquote – “fourth” line, with Mal – a real identity – Aubé-Kubel, and Dowd. And quite frankly, the way that potentially we saw it in a lot of different scenarios from the summer, of what our fourth line would look like.

“So credit to them. Dowder came in, and I thought he was excellent. He stabilizes that [line] and you can deploy him in any situation. And then they chip in offensively as well, which they have the ability to do, while not sacrificing anything at the other end.”

What else is fascinating is that Sunday’s three-goal outburst from the Dowd trio came at the expense of Kempe, Kopitar and Byfield, though not all at once. That Kings’ trio has logged a lot of ice together this season, but the team’s recent cold spell had them split up for Sunday’s game. Dowd’s first period goal on Sunday came with Kopitar and Byfield on the ice, and Aubé-Kubel’s tying goal in the third came while Kempe and his linemates were on.

Part of the Dowd line’s job description involves taking an inordinate amount of defensive zone face-offs. If the face-off is won, the trio is expected to move the puck in a northerly direction to help set the table for the Caps’ more offensive minded players. If the draw is lost, the Dowd group is expected to defend as diligently as possible, a tall task they tend to achieve more often than not.

“They get a really difficult deployment,” says Carbery. “And what I would say to that is, they embrace that, and they take pride in understanding and don’t see it as a negative, of me putting them in the defensive zone, and having to start there. They see that as an opportunity of having to go up against the best players in the League, and to be able to get that puck out of our defensive zone, and get it into the neutral zone and potentially, into the offensive zone. And that is a rare quality, even from bottom six lines.

“It’s not that they don’t want to do it, and don’t do it effectively, it’s just that it’s a hard, hard job, constantly having to go out in your defensive zone and line up against the Artemi Panarins and the [Mika] Zibanejads of the world. That is a hard, difficult assignment, and they embrace it.”

Carbery’s comment is borne out by the fact that there are few similar lines among the 17 that have played 240 or more minutes together. Arizona’s trio of Matias Macelli, Nick Bjugstad and Lawson Crouse has played over 300 minutes together, outscoring the opposition by 15-12 in the process. But they’ve also taken 43.2 percent of their draws in the offensive zone.

Carolina’s line of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast has logged 313 minutes together, but it has taken 49.4 percent of its draws in the offensive zone, and it is one of just two of those 17 lines that has been outscored on the season, to the tune of 12-9. The Dallas trio of Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Been and Evgeni Dadonov has been outscored 15-10 in 276 minutes of playing time together.

Some analysts and social media mavens are down on the Dowd line for its poor analytics; the trio’s Corsi numbers start with a “3” and typically invoke a wince. But these three guys are set up to have poor analytics; it’s essentially in their job description. And you won’t find Corsi numbers on the scoreboards of any of the NHL’s 32 arenas. So yes, the Dowd line has logged 248 minutes and 13 seconds worth of ice time together thus far this season, and it has been on the ice for a mere 38.61% of all shot attempts. But they’ve been out for only four goals against, despite taking just 18 draws in the offensive zone; they’ve taken 197 in their own end, and 90 in neutral ice.

As the late, great Warren Zevon would have sang, “It ain’t that pretty at all.”

Sometimes, it’s really ugly. There are shots to be blocked and penalties to be taken; there are occasional skates of shame from the penalty box back to the bench. The way the Dowd line is deployed sets it up for failure, but what many don’t see is this: the line is not failing, it’s a success. The line’s “expected” goals for is 6.12 and its “expected” goals against is 10.69. But the actual numbers thus far this season are 13 goals scored and only four yielded against while the trio is on the ice; that’s a positive 13-goal differential between expected and actual goals against. How many other lines anywhere in the NHL can make the same claim?

Maybe that’s not sustainable. Maybe their PDO (1.12!) is too high. Maybe they’ll get destroyed as the season moves on because, well, regression. It’s possible. The trio has a 15.3% on-ice shooting percentage and a 96.7% on-ice save percentage.

For the last two months, the line has consistently not failed. Even when it doesn’t win the defensive zone draw, it often manages to get the puck up the ice.

Dowd has handled this role for four seasons now, originally with Carl Hagelin and Garnet Hathaway, and now with Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel. The analytics weren’t always the best then, either, but the line stayed together for the better part of two seasons. Why? Because it was an effective unit. They got the job done, they visibly frustrated the opposition by making them play more defense than they’d prefer, and they'd chip in with some much-needed offense here and there as well.

There are three major differences in the way the Dowd line was deployed under Peter Laviolette as opposed to how it’s being utilized under Carbery. First and most obvious, the wingers are different; they’re younger and less experienced. Second, Carbery is doubling down on the already taxing number of defensive zone starts; the paltry number of offensive-zone starts the group sees has been cut in half, from about 17 percent to just over eight percent. And finally, Carbery deploys the group more frequently. Each of the three players is seeing a higher nightly average in ice time than any previous season in his NHL career.

“It’s tough because if you look at some of the analytics of it, it’s a hard night,” admits Carbery. “But it’s hard to evaluate their numbers when they’re starting that often in the defensive zone. Overall, they’ve done a great job. They’ve outscored the opponents at 5-on-5, and they have really taken pride in that role.”

Dowd was first tasked with this role three years ago this month, when Laviolette put him in the middle of a line with Carl Hagelin and Garnet Hathaway. The three had played just 18 minutes together before opening night of the 2020-21 season. In two seasons – 95 games – together as a trio, the HDH line saw just under 22 percent of their starts in the offensive zone at 5-on-5, and they still outscored the opposition 38-26 in 875 minutes together, with an excellent – given deployment – Corsi rating of 50.9%.

This year’s model has about one-third of the percentage of offensive zone draws of the Dowd 1.0 crew, with a higher nightly ice time average that leads to more exposure.

When the HDH line was first assembled, Dowd had 251 games in the League, Hathaway had 241 and Hagelin had 604. Back on Nov. 10 of this year when Malenstyn, Dowd and Aube-Kubel were first minted, Dowd had 438 games in the League, Aubé-Kubel had 222 and Malenstyn had 35.

With the grizzled 33-year-old vet Dowd showing the way, the 27-year-old Aube-Kubel and the 25-year-old Malenstyn are now attaching themselves to the role as their mentor did before them.

“It’s obviously a big responsibility starting off a lot of your shifts in the [defensive] zone,” says Malenstyn. “But we take a lot of pride in that, and we have a lot of confidence in Dowder on the dot; he does a great job in the circle. A lot of times, if we’re able to execute off that clean win in the [defensive] zone, we should be able to move the puck forward.

“It’s a different kind of mindset. You have to be on the same page with plays that are going to help you advance one zone, through the neutral zone, and then either on to a rush or a forecheck. If we can put those three things together, we should continue to get some more offensive zone time. The more of that we can create, the better. We get more chances, and the best way to defend is in the offensive zone. Like I said, we take a lot of pride in being able to advance the puck that way, and in continuing to be on the same page.”

Claimed off waivers from Toronto by the Capitals in November of 2022, there were no takers when Washington put Aubé-Kubel on waivers late in training camp prior to this season. But the way he has played in his two months in the NHL this season, Aubé-Kubel looks like a guy who is determined not to return to the AHL.

“It’s really good,” he says of his current situation. “I had a really good summer, so I knew I had that in me. I just didn’t have a really good training camp. I didn’t mind my time in Hershey; I think I came back stronger. From there, it just made me realize that I can [have] a good defensive role with this team, and I’ve just done that.”

Twelve of Washington’s 19 wins this season have come in one-goal games; only Dallas (13) has more wins in one-goal decisions. For the offensively challenged Capitals, every point and every win is crucial, and without the Dowd line keeping the opposition’s top lines in check – and it’s more-than-occasional scoring input – it’s likely that the team’s one-goal victory total – and its point total – are lower.

The Caps have lost 13 games in regulation, and they’ve scored one or zero goals in 11 of those games. In many of those regulation setbacks – starting with the opening night 4-0 loss to Pittsburgh and going right through Friday night’s 6-2 loss to Carolina – the opposition’s best players did much of the offensive damage in the game while Washington’s top players were largely or totally silent in that regard.

Finally, no Washington trio has scored more goals than the Dowd line. And no Washington trio with that many minutes together has yielded fewer goals against, either. The Caps are 14-8-4 with all three players in the lineup, and they’re 5-5-2 when any one or more of them is out of the lineup.

Initially cobbled and remodeled as a shutdown trio, the line is now used on a more frequent basis, and it’s deployed to safely close out games in which Washington holds late leads. In year one of the line’s existence, Dowd ranked ninth among Washington forwards (30 games or more) in average nightly ice time at 5-on-5. Hagelin ranked 10th, and Hathaway 13th. Thus far this season, Aube-Kubel ranks fifth, Dowd is eighth, and Malenstyn is 12th in 5-on-5 ice time (20 games or more).

Each member of the trio skated more even-strength minutes in the third period of Sunday’s game than in the game’s first two periods, and Malenstyn’s total of 6:18 in third-period ice time on Sunday was tops among all Washington forwards.

“There’s no shying away from what our line is used for,” says Dowd. “I’ve had linemates come in and out, but what I’ve done in the last three or four years of my career has given me a lot of responsibility, and I’ve really leaned into it. The best part about being a role player on a good team is you have a good role. Certain guys do play more early [in games], and then when we do get a lead, it’s more about protecting that lead. We’ve definitely noticed that, and it’s kind of nice.

“As you play more in the third, you feel better about your game. And then as the game winds down, you’re actually feeling genuinely good about your legs and how you’re playing, because you’ve had time to build up the momentum throughout that period, as opposed to having your ice time spread out, and then having to jump into a tough position where you’re having to make plays.”

We should also point out here that all three members of this line take their fair share of penalties. But thus far this season, each has drawn more calls than he has taken; Malenstyn’s 13 penalties drawn is second on the team to Tom Wilson (17) and is tied for 33rd in the NHL. Virtually every aspect of their collective game has been elevated and honed since that November night two months ago when they first played together, and yes, they’ve been extremely consistent on a team where consistency has been lacking in other areas.

“There’s players all around the league – highly talented players – where you just don’t know what you’re going to get out of them on a nightly basis,” says Dowd. “Those type of guys usually need to season a little bit, but some of them unfortunately fall out of the League because they can’t figure it out, and some of them do figure it out and maybe change parts of their game.

“The ironic thing is that all the things I’m trying to stay consistent at – taking face-offs, killing penalties, being a positive player [plus/minus wise], getting pucks into the [offensive] zone and forechecking – all of that only turns into more offense. That’s all it does. So my best offensive games will probably be my best defensive games. Because if I win all my face-offs, we have the puck all the time. We get the puck, we dump it in, we get to forecheck. It’s tough when the other team has the puck the whole damn time. It’s challenging to break out.”

They keep it humble, too. If you approach any of the three to discuss their offensive exploits, they’ll quickly point out the one or two goals they’ve given up in the last month, or they’ll start knocking on wood and issuing accusations of jinxing them. They just want to do their job and do it well, and if some red lights for the good guys come along the way, it’s Sunday gravy.

“I think we’re three good defensive players,” says Aubé-Kubel. “Beck blocks every shot possible [he ranks fifth among NHL forwards], Dowd makes really good plays down low and supports the [defensemen], and it’s been really easy to play with those two defensively, and it’s always a bonus when we get to score some.”

“For the most part, all three of us have a pretty clear mindset of a simple game that’s going to translate well within each other,” says Malenstyn. “If we can get that rolling and stay on top of pucks together, supporting each other for those quick little touches on forechecks and things like that, I think we’re going to continue to create more and more offensive chances, which is going to give us more confidence as well.”

As was the case when Hagelin and Hathaway were the wingers on the Dowd line, all three players are supportive of one another both on and off the ice.

“When you win a face-off and you can give it to our [defensemen] and you can let Mally and Kubes forecheck,” says Dowd, “that’s a minimum of 20 seconds right there, and if we turn that into an [offensive] zone shift, then maybe we score a goal and everyone is thinking, ‘Oh, what a great play.’ But it starts with Mally winning a wall battle or me winning a face-off or Kubes forechecking a guy and turning a puck over. It’s all the small, defensive things that drives my game and I believe it’s what drives our line.

“It’s just consistency, and if the coaches notice that, then that’s what we’re aiming for.”

They’ve noticed.