Lead The Way – Holding the best goal differential (+36) in the League, the Capitals head into Saturday night’s home game vs. Buffalo with a modest three-game winning streak, the longest current run of any Eastern Conference team. With four each, only Vegas and Edmonton have longer ongoing streaks of success among the NHL’s Original 32.
Two nights ago in Columbus, the Caps extended their road winning streak to 10 straight games with a 2-1 overtime victory over the Blue Jackets. The win was Washington’s League-leading 12th comeback win in 20 games this season. With a 20-6-2 record, the Caps have matched their best start through 28 games.
The Caps have strung together four straight games with two or fewer goals against, the second time they’ve done so in the last month, and that defensive stinginess has helped fuel the team’s current 10-2-1 run.
As they prepare to take on the Sabres tonight, the Caps would like to “get right” on home ice. They reeled off seven straight wins at home earlier this season, but they’ve won just one of their last six games here in the District, and each of their last five games here has been decided by a single goal.
“Tonight’s a good opportunity to do that before we head back out on the road,” says Caps coach Spencer Carbery. “Trying to take some of the things that we’ve done so well on the road – inside of our game and inside of our mindset in our approach to those games, and some things that we’ve done inside of the game to manage momentum swings. There’s a lot.”
During the life of their current road winning streak, the Caps have had a lot of lead time, despite authoring some come-from-behind triumphs in those games. With a total of 271 minutes and 37 seconds of lead time in more than 600 minutes of road hockey Washington has played since the streak started on Nov. 9 in St. Louis, no team in the League has had more lead time on the road than the Caps over that span.
But in their last six home games, the Caps have owned a lead for just 70 minutes and 37 seconds of the more than 360 minutes of hockey they have played over that span. In two of the games, they had no lead time whatsoever. And a total of 41:38 of their home lead time in those six games – the lion’s share of it – was accrued in a single game, a 4-3 overtime loss to Toronto on Nov. 13.
Washington ranks 29th in home ice lead time since Nov. 8. If there is one element Washington hopes to bring home from the road, it’s playing from in front. But that’s easier said than done, no matter the opponent. Buffalo drags an eight-game losing streak (0-5-3) with it into town on this Saturday night, but six of those eight losses were by a single goal, and the Caps have struggled against the Sabres for much of their half century history.
“By our measures and the way it looks on film – I know they’ve been struggling to accumulate wins – they’re a team that in a lot of offensive metrics looks really good,” says Carbery. “We’ve seen the talent – and I know [defenseman Rasmus] Dahlin is questionable to play – they’ve got some high-end guys that can really make a difference, and we felt that last year.
“So I think the guys, and especially the guys that were here last year, have felt the quality of this team. It’s no different than in Columbus, San Jose [earlier this month], on home ice tonight they will be a significant challenge, and we’re going to need our best.”
Face Up – We know there is little to no correlation between face-off success and success in the NHL standings. If the season ended today, half the teams in the NHL’s top 10 in that category would miss the playoffs, including each of the top two teams in that category, whose names both begin with “New York.”
The last time the Capitals finished a season above 50 percent on the face-off dot was 2017-18 when they finished at 50.4 percent in face-off success rate, 13th in the NHL. Heading into tonight’s game with Buffalo, the Caps are at 50.4 percent on the season, and they rank 17th in the circuit.
What’s gone into that success?
“Definitely communication,” says Dylan Strome, whose current 55.6 percent face-off success rate is the highest of his career, in seasons in which he has played more than 20 games. “I feel like we’re talking a lot more about what we’re seeing, and we know what we like to so and what our strengths are, and [Nic Dowd] is really good about talking to guys about what to do in those situations and those moments.
“I think it’s definitely talking to each other, talking about the guys that we’re playing against, and I think it’s been good. If you’re struggling against one guy, other guys might have some tips, and it’s been nice to have each other to lean on and be able to discuss what is working against each guy.”
Experience is also a factor. Of Washington’s four centermen, only Strome (464 NHL games) is still south of the 500-game mark for his career. At 1,066 games, Lars Eller is the leader of the group in that department. Eller finished under 50 percent in each of his first four seasons in the League, but he has been above 50 percent for most seasons since, and his career mark is 50.3 percent.
“I can’t speak for the other players,” says Eller, “but for me, it’s an ever-evolving game within the game. My face-offs and how I approach them has certainly evolved over the years, and a little bit again this season.
“There’s certain tendencies and patterns that you see with other players. You see some develop some to counter those, and you see some that work well. And sometimes you try to counter something that you’re facing, and sometimes maybe you’re trying to replicate something that others are doing well, so you’re always learning and you’re always watching. But obviously, I am always working on my strengths and the moves on the dot that I feel work the best for me.”
Since Nov. 1, Washington’s 51.4 percent success rate ranks 11th in the NHL. And over the life of their current eight-game point streak (7-0-1), all four of the Capitals’ centers are at or above 50 percent in the circle: Eller is at 58 percent, Strome is at 56 percent, P-L Dubois is at 54.8 percent and Dowd is at 50 percent.
In The Nets – Charlie Lindgren won his fourth consecutive start and his sixth in his last seven on Thursday night in Columbus, so Logan Thompson draws the starting assignment tonight against the Sabres. After winning each of his first seven starts as a Capital, Thompson has helped the team earn points in six of his last seven starts (4-1-2).
Thompson has yielded two or fewer goals against in eight of his last 10 starts (7-1-2), posting a 2.19 GAA and a .926 save pct. in the process. Lifetime against the Sabres, he is 1-2-0 in three appearances (all starts), with a 5.05 GAA and an .844 save pct.
Buffalo is playing the front end of a set of back-to-back games tonight; the Sabres will face the Leafs in Toronto on Sunday. As expected, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gets the start against Washington. He has started 20 of Buffalo’s 29 games this season, winning eight (8-8-3).
Lifetime against Washington, Luukkonen is 4-0-2 in half a dozen career starts and appearances, with a 2.90 GAA and a .907 save pct.
All Lined Up – Here’s how we believe the Caps and the Sabres might look when they take to the ice on Saturday night in the District:
WASHINGTON
Forwards
24-McMichael, 17-Strome, 16-Raddysh
21-Protas, 80-Dubois, 43-Wilson
29-Lapierre, 20-Eller, 88-Mangiapane
22-Duhaime, 26-Dowd, 63-Miroshnichenko
Defensemen
42-Fehervary, 74-Carlson
38-Sandin, 3-Roy
6-Chychrun, 57-van Riemsdyk
Goaltenders
48-Thompson
79-Lindgren
Extras
13-Vrana
27-Alexeyev
52-McIlrath
Out/Injured
8-Ovechkin (fractured fibula)
15-Milano (upper body)
19-Backstrom (hip)
77-Oshie (back)
BUFFALO
Forwards
77-Peterka, 72-Thompson, 89-Tuch
9-Benson, 20-Kulich, 24-Cozens
120-Greenway, 71-McLeod, 16-Zucker
29-Malenstyn, 19-Krebs, 96-Aube-Kubel
Defensemen
33-Johnson, 4-Byram
23-Samuelsson, 25-Power
8-Gilbert, 75-Clifton
Goaltenders
1-Luukkonen
47-Reimer
Extras
10-Jokiharju
22-Quinn
78-Bryson
Out/Injured
26-Dahlin (upper body)
81-Rafferty (lower body)
