It is possible the organization could trade down within the first round to pick up an extra asset -- the Flyers currently will not pick again after No. 5 until the 69th overall selection -- and still land a desired prospect from near the top of the internal rankings a little later in Round 1. There have been several late-rising prospects whose internal final rankings could differ significantly from the publicly available rankings.
A relatively unlikely (but not impossible) scenario would be trading up from the fifth pick. This would only be viable if the Flyers internally covet one specific player ranked first or second on their list, perceive a significant drop-off from that player to the next name, and if a potential trading partner is offered a deal it can't refuse.
The final possibility is for the Flyers to trade the fifth pick for immediate help on the NHL roster. Chuck Fletcher would not completely rule out that option but said the return would have to be a player within a certain age range (early to mid 20s) who could help the team both immediately and for the long-term.
One of the most challenging aspects of drafting by the "best available player regardless of position" philosophy the Flyers profess is to determine final rankings that make apples-to-apples comparisons of players' projected NHL roles (for example, selecting a potential top 6 forward vs. a potential top 4 defenseman or a natural center vs. a winger vs. a swingman who could move around as needed). Ranking a well-rounded two-way player vs. a pure playmaker or finisher who may have a little higher projected offensive ceiling. Looking at the existing physical maturity of a player versus projecting what a less physically mature player might accomplish as a pro as he fills out his frame over time. The top end of the 2022 Draft class features players with a wide array of bankable attributes versus areas that require a bit more projection.
In past years on PhiladelphiaFlyers.com, we've done first-round mock Drafts; basically a guessing-game exercise based on various public rankings plus "buzz" from around NHL scouting circles. This year, we're doing it a little differently. We'll look at players who may be on the Flyers radar, those who are unlikely to be on the board by pick no. 5 and ones who may be trade-down candidates in different scenarios.
Unlikely to be available (projected top 3)
There is a general consensus -- although not universal agreement -- on the likeliest top three picks in the 2022 Draft, but the order of selection may vary, even at the No. 1 spot (held by the Montreal Canadiens). According to the historically most reliable projection of how the teams may select on Draft Day -- Bob McKenzie's rankings, which he collects directly from NHL scouts from a variety of organizations -- the top three selections come July 7 are likely to be forwards.
Juraj Slafkovsky -- LW (TPS Turku, Liiga): The Slovakian winger took over the top spot in McKenzie's overall projection; reflective of a widespread trend toward moving Shane Wright -- the longtime consensus 2022 first overall pick dating back a full year or more before the 2021-22 season -- out of the No. 1 spot. Slovakian winger Slafkovsky is already playing against pros in Finland's top league and has a combination of size, skill and strength. There is some debate about whether he has elite offensive upside but there's widespread belief that he's barely scratched the surface of his capabilities and is already projectable as an NHL impact forward within a few years.
Shane Wright -- C (Kingston Frontenacs, OHL): When a player has been on the scouting radar for as long as Wright, there is often a tendency to nitpick him as his Draft-eligible season progresses. That has been the case in 2021-22 with Wright. Nonetheless, there is no doubting that Wright has a diverse skill set. He's a good skater, has high-end hockey sense and ice vision, is an outstanding playmaker and can also finish plays. The main knock on Wright from his critics is that some question the consistency of his competitiveness level and whether he will dig deep to elevate his game a notch when the checking gets tight. It should also be noted that Wright remains ranked No. 1 in many other rankings, including Craig Button's "Craig's List", Sportsnet and McKeen's. The lowest established pundit projection for Wright is Grant McCagg (former Montreal Canadiens scout) ranking the player 4th in Recrutes' ratings.
Logan Cooley -- C (USNTDP. USHL):An excellent stickhandler and playmaker, Cooley is also widely regarded as being a potentially elite skater who has both speed and quickness. He also possesses a good shot and a deceptive release to keep defenses honest. Cooley lacks a bit in size (5-foot-10) but plays an adequate two-way game. Critics say he could improve a little in terms of doubling down on his competitive drive when things aren't going his way. A Pittsburgh native, Cooley is headed next season for the University of Minnesota. Some consider him the most dynamic offensive talent in this year's Draft class.
Targets in range for pick No. 5
Before the Flyers' turn comes up at No. 5, they will have to see which player the Seattle Kraken select with the fourth overall pick. If the Kraken take a forward, every defensemen in the Draft class will still be on the board and one may be atop Philadelphia's internal rankings. If a D-man comes off the board, it may become closer to a 50-50 proposition as to whether the Flyers have a forward or a second straight blueliner atop their list.
Simon Nemec -- D (HK Nitra, Slovakian Extraliga):A right-handed shooting defenseman, Nemec is widely regarded as one of the top two defensemen in the 2022 Draft class along with Czech defenseman David Jiricek. Nemec rates very highly across the board in terms of his hockey IQ, breakout passing ability, and competitiveness. He is comfortable handling the puck frequently and poised under pressure. Nemec is already relatively mature from a physical standpoint (6-foot-1, 195 pounds). The question is whether he'll become an impact offensive defenseman who is a power play regular or "only" a well-rounded right-side defenseman who can play effectively within an NHL team's blueline top 4.
Cutter Gauthier -- LW/C (USNTDP, USHL):Gauthier was a second-half riser in many Draft rankings, and wound up fifth in McKenzie's list and 7th on Button's list. He has a nose for the net and a combination of good size (6-foot-2 1/2, 201 pounds) and good skating ability. Gauthier is expected to play some center at Boston College but it remains to be seen whether he'll be a long-term winger, a center or a swingman depending on his linemates. He is a plus shooter and an above-average skater for a player his size. He won't dazzle with fancy plays but he wins puck battles and recognizes offensive opportunities.
David Jiricek -- D (HC Plzen, Czech Extraliga):Mid-season knee surgery after an injury in the opening game of the World Junior Championship created question marks as to whether the big-framed Czech blueliner (6-foot-3, 189 pounds) would drop significantly on the 2022 Draft. Jiricek returned to play in the spring, however, and appeared in five games at the 2022 IIHF World Championship. He appeared to be fine in terms of skating and ranginess. Widely considered the best shutdown defenseman in this year's Draft crop, Jiricek is also a promising puck mover. He has a booming shot from the point, but there is debate over how much offensive upside Jiricek has. Playing against grown men in the top Czech league this past season, Jiricek posted five goals and 11 points in 29 games. Being a right-handed shooter also boosts his case for potentially being selected in the top five. Jiricek is considered a high-floor -- potential top-four on a blueline -- prospect. The debate is whether his ceiling reaches that of a true first-pairing prospect.
Joakim Kemell -- RW (JYP Jyväskylä, Liiga): A somewhat divisive prospect in public rankings, this much is agreed upon about the Finnish winger: He has a pure sniper's touch from a goal-scoring standpoint (especially a lethal one-timer from the left circle) and is an above-average skater. Kemell rocketed out of the gates this past season with 12 goals in his first 16 games. He then suffered a shoulder injury that kept him out of action in November. Upon his return, Kemell was not nearly as effective. Most notably, he only scored three times in his final 26 games. He was also said to much less involved in the play -- fewer puck touches and less involvement in entries and the forecheck. Just as rumors swirled that Kemell might drop out of Top 10 contention for Draft Day, the smallish (5-foot-9 1/2, 185 pound) Finn rattled off a hat trick in the medal round quarterfinal at the Under-18 World Championship. Kemell played a fairly aggressive style game before the shoulder injury and is still working to get back to where he was in the early part of 2021-22.
Jonathan Lekkerimäki -- RW (Djurgårdens IF/ DIF J20, SHL/ J20 National): Lekkerimäki is one of a trio of highly regarded young forwards in the Djurgårdens IF Stockholm system, along with center Noah Östlund and left winger Liam Öhgren. Of the three, Lekkerimäki spent the most time (26 games) and had the most 2021-22 impact (seven goals, nine points) at the pro level with DIF's senior team. He is one of the better pure shooters in the draft, and plays a strong puck-possession game with above-average mobility. Lekkermäki, who had 20 goals and 36 points in 26 games at the J20 level this past season, has not yet shown the same tendency to score in bunches that Kemell has in Finland but he progressed at an arguably steadier rate. Lekkerimäki lacks size (5-foot-10 1/2, 171 pounds) but is an above-average skater. Some believe that Östlund or Öhgren have comparable -- or even higher -- upside for the long-term, but the pundit consensus (with some notable outliers) is that Lekkerimäki may have the best chance of being selected in the first five-to-10 picks.
Step-up and trade-down candidates
In a year in which many different players -- in widely varying orders -- will appear in the NHL teams' top-five lists (especially in the No. 4 and 5 spots), there could be surprises in how the top half of the first round plays out. There may be potential for the Flyers to trade down anywhere from about 3-4 slots to as many as 8-10 and still land a player they rate in their internal five to seven Draft candidates while picking up an extra asset. However, there's also an old adage that if you believe strongly enough in a particular prospect, the best strategy is simply to stand pat and select that player at first opportunity. That's especially true if you believe there's a potential quality drop off before your turn would come up if you traded.
Matthew Savoie -- C/RW (Winnipeg Ice, WHL):The biggest question mark over Savoie is whether the player (who has primarily been a center at the major junior level but saw time on wing in the latter part of the season) will be better off being a winger in the pro game. There are not many successful 5-foot-9 centers in today's NHL but there are plenty of successful undersized wingers. Savoie has been saddled with the label of being a "power play specialist" but silenced some of those questions with 14 goals at 5-on-5 plus a shorthanded goal over his final 27 regular season and playoff games (after scoring 13 even-strength goals over his first 48 games of 2021-22). He is highly skilled, a fast skater both with and without the puck (although not a top-five speedster in his Draft class), and competes even when he gives away size. Savoie is an adequate defensive center at the major junior level but a significant percentage of scouts fear that he'd struggle defensively against NHL opposition and could better handle the 200-foot game on a wing. McKenzie has Savoie ranked 9th in his projections, while Button has him 19th and Central Scouting placed him as the No. 4 rated North American skater.
Marko Kasper -- C (Rögle BK Ängelholm, SHL):The Austrian center/winger is considered to be one of the safest two-way players available in the 2022 Draft; an unselfish and high-character player general with a projectable NHL frame (6-foot-2 and currently 187 pounds at age 18). Kasper handled himself surprisingly well at the SHL level after being called up from RBK's J20 team. He also scored a combined 10 goals between the regular season and the playoffs. Nonetheless, the main question mark on Kasper is his offensive upside: is he more of a third-line NHL player down the line or someone who can excel in a top-six role? Will be a center, winger or a swingman? McKenzie ranks Kasper 10th overall, International Scouting Services has him 12th, Button places him 17th, Recrutes slots him 21st and McKeen's rated him 24. Most of the disagreement is over whether he'll make an NHL offensive impact or be a bottom-six forward.
Noah Östlund -- C (Djurgårdens IF/ DIF J20, SHL/ J20 National):Östlund's name is rarely mentioned as a potential higher-end first-round candidate in many of the public rankings but he's a name that made waves within NHL scouting circles in the second half of the 2021-22 season. He saw little ice time in 11 SHL games with the Djurgården senior team but he had outstanding campaign for their J20 team (42 points in 33 games) and an even better Under-18 World Championship as an alternate captain for the Swedish national team. A prolific playmaker and speedster, Östlund averaged more than an assist per game (33 helpers in 32 games) for DIF's J20 team and had six assists and 10 points in six games at the U18 Worlds. He is also a silky skater and slick stickhandler with strong offensive anticipation and ability to go to the right spots and make creative plays without taking low-percentage risks. The main concern about the player's projection -- assuming he remains at center -- is that he needs to add a lot of muscle to a 5-foot-10, 164-pound frame. Nevertheless by the end of the season, Östlund appeared on most of the more reputable pundits' first-round projections including the 22nd overall rankings by McKenzie and McKeen's. Button moved him to the 30th in his final ranking. International Scouting Services has him 18th. The biggest outlier -- an eye-popping is -- Recrutes. McCagg is such a strong believer in the player that he ranked Östlund second overall, behind only Slafkovsky!
Liam Öhgren -- LW (Djurgårdens IF/ DIF J20, SHL/ J20 National):Öhgren made for a lethal combination with Östlund on Djurgården's J20 team this past season. The left winger racked up 33 goals and 58 points in 30 games at the J20 level in 2021-22 and also appeared (in fourth line minutes) in 25 SHL games for the DIF men's team (one goal, one assist). Öhgren captained the Swedish national under-18 squad at the 2022 Under-18 Worlds. Despite playing through an ankle injury, the forward posted nine points (3g, 6a) in six games. Öhgren has good size -- 201 pounds on a 6-foot-1 frame -- and is considered a high-character player. The question is how much better he can get and whether his performance against much less physically mature players will translate to playing against grown men. Button ranks Öhgren 18th, while McKenzie and McKeen's both have him 21st and International Scouting Services places him 25th. Central Scouts slots him eighth among European skaters. The high-end outlier is McCagg/Recrutes ranking him 8th.
Frank Nazar -- C/LW (USNTDP, USHL):Looking for a pure speedster? With the exception of freakishly athletic but extremely raw QMJHL defenseman Noah Warren (who possesses outstanding skating ability for any young player, much less one with a 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame), there may not be a better pure skater in this year's Draft than USNTDP forward Nazar. He's been less consistent than Savoie so far in his young career but fits the same basic profile: high-upside offensive potential, concerns about whether he can thrive as a pro center given his 5-foot-10, 180 pound frame or if he'd be better off as a full-time winger. He also still has work to do in learning the off-puck game -- arguably more than Savoie -- but believers maintain that Nazar will eventually figure things out and become a highly productive NHL forward. Nazar racked up 70 points in 56 games for the USNTDP this past season. McKenzie ranks him 15th, McKeen's has him 12th, ISS places him 11th, Button ranks him 25th and Central Scouting has him ranked 21st among North American skaters.
Jimmy Snuggerud -- RW (USNTDP, USHL):A prospect championed by Craig Button (who ranks him 8th overall), the right-handed shooting Snuggerud is a player who moved up in many second-half lists as he played well along Nazar and Isaac Howard. He has a heavy shot and good shooting mechanics although he posted unspectacular scoring totals. Nonetheless, the player has good size, a solid work ethic and has shown a willingness to compete in the trenches. Button and other scouts who believe in his upside predict that the University of Minnesota bound prospect will blossom into a viable top-six NHL winger. He is the son of Flyers Alum player Dave Snuggerud. McKenzie pegs the prospect as a mid-first rounder (15th overall), while ISS has him 27th, Central Scouting ranks him 11th among North American skaters, McKeen's places him 31st in their ratings and Recrutes also has him at 31st.
Kevin Korchinski -- D (Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL) :Beyond Nemec and Jiricek, the mostly high-ranked defensemen in this year's Draft crop often include Korchinski or Russian defenseman Pavel Mintyukov. Korchinski is a player with very good physical tools (6-foot-2 1/2 height albeit on a skinny frame, demonstrated high end puck-moving and passing ability, and a naturally good skater). The question marks lay in his defensive reads and overall hockey sense as well as whether he shoots the puck well enough to be a power play defenseman at the NHL level. McKenzie ranks Korchinski 11th on his final list, Button has him 10th, Recrutes rates him at No. 14, ISS slots him 17th, McKeen's places him 18th, and Central Scouting has him 7th among North American skaters.
Pavel Mintyukov -- D (Saginaw Spirit, OHL):The Russian defenseman had a highly productive first OHL junior season in the OHL in 2021-22. There is uncertainty over his desire to continue developing in North America vs. playing in the KHL (which could make him an x-factor in the Draft due to the political situation with the war in Ukraine and the NHL's cancelation of its Memorandum of Understanding with the KHL). One of the top offensive defensemen in this year's Draft, Mintyukov produced 17 goals and 62 points in 67 games over his first OHL season. He also is a good skater and clever passer. The question marks are in terms of risk-taking and defensive reads: there is significant room for improvement. Will he crack the Top 10? Pundit predictions vary but he's generally considered being right on the cusp of potentially moving within the top 10. McKenzie and Button both rank Mintyukov 11th, Recrutes has him 10th, ISS places him 13th in their rankings, and Central Scouting rates him 6th among skaters who played in North America this past season.
Jiri Kulich -- LW (HC Energie Karlovy Vary, Czech Extraliga): Kulich shot up the charts in some late-season rankings after he led all players at the Under-18 World Championship with nine goals in six games while captaining the Czech team. With 11 points in six games, Kulich directly figured in roughly 40 percent of the 27 goals his team scored in the tourney. He posted nine goals and 14 points playing against grown men in the top Czech league this past season and is also a member of the national U20 team slated to play in the rescheduled World Junior Championship. In terms of pure shooting ability, some rank Kulich nearly in the same class as Kemell, Slafkovsky and Gauthier and comparable to Lekkerimäki. He gets lower marks among some pundits for his consistency and two-way commitment. McKenzie ranks Kulich 18th, while he's 14th on Button's final "Craig's List", 15th for ISS, 12th by McCagg/Recrutes, and 15th by ISS.
Connor Geekie -- C (Winnipeg Ice, WHL): A big-framed center (6-foot-3, 196 pounds) with two-way upside, Geekie is considered one of the safer picks in this year's Draft class. The primary questions with Geekie center around just how he will score at the NHL level. McKenzie ranks him 13th, Central Scouting has 5th among North American skaters, ISS rates him 14th, Recrutes places him 20th in their ratings and Button places him near the end of the first-range range at 29th overall.
Jagger Firkus -- RW (Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL):Firkus is not a likely top-five pick but a potential trade-down option in the mid-to-latter first round. A pint-sized prospect at a shade under 5-foot-9 and 151 pounds, Firkus nonetheless drew attention at the CHL Top Prospects showcase. He posted 36 goals and 80 points in 66 regular season games and added a dozen points (6g, 6a) in 10 playoff games. He's considered a good skater and passer as well as finisher. Ultimately, it comes down to how successfully an NHL team believes he can compete as a pro and whether his offensive game will produce enough production to overcome some limitations in his 200-foot game. Bob McKenzie rates Firkus as a second-round candidate (34th overall) while Button has him in the middle of the first round at 16th overall. McCagg ranks him 17th and Central Scouting places him 12th in their final North American skater rankings.
