5 THINGS: Flyers @ Sabres
In the road half of a home-and-home set, interim head coach Mike Yeo's Philadelphia Flyers (23-40-11) are in New York State on Saturday to take on Don Granato's Buffalo Sabres (27-38-11).
On the afternoon of Jan. 22, the Flyers suffered a 6-3 road loss to the Sabres.The Flyers held a 2-1 lead in the first period on goals by Rasmus Ristolainen before the wheels fell off. Buffalo led, 4-2, by the end of the first period and then expanded the edge to 5-2 in the second period. Tage Thompson (three points), Jeff Skinner (three points) and Peyton Krebs notched two goals apiece for the Sabres, while Giroux scored twice for the Flyers. Three of the Sabres' goals came on the power play.
The Flyers enter this game coming off a 4-0 home shutout loss to the New York Rangers on Wednesday evening. Alexandar Georgiev stopped all 28 shots he faced while Kaapo Kakko scored a pair of goals for New York. Artemi Panarin and Andrew Copp (empty net, shorthanded) tallied once apiece.
The Sabres enter this game coming off a 6-2 home loss to the St. Louis Blues. The game was tied at 1-1 after the first period and 2-2 early in the second period before the Blues pulled away. Vladimir Tarasenko racked up a hat trick for St. Louis. Rasmus Asplund and Alex Tuch scored in a losing cause for Buffalo. Two nights earlier, the Sabres upset the Maple Leafs in Toronto, 5-2, on the heels of getting blanked on the road by the Tampa Bay Lightning, 5-0.
Here are five things to watch in Saturday's game:
1. Farabee - Frost - Brink Line
Twenty-two-year-old Flyers winger Joel Farabee has been in an offensive funk of late. He has not recorded a point in the last four games and also did not register a shot on goal in either of the last two tilts. Dating back to March 29 in Minnesota, Farabee has one point (1g, 0a) over his last seven games and is a highly uncharacteristic minus-12 in his traditional plus-minus rating over that span.
Yeo said after Friday's practice in Voorhees that the young player's confidence in his own game is a little bit down at present. For Saturday's game, Farabee will skate left wing on a line with 22-year-old center Morgan Frost and (in his third NHL game) 20-year-old right wing Bobby Brink.
On paper at least, this is a high-skill trio with two natural playmakers (Frost and Brink) and Farabee (20 goals in 55 games in 2020-21, 16 goals in 55 games to date this season) as a potential finisher. Yeo said it also gives Farabee -- a player in whom the Flyers see long-term leadership upside -- a chance to take charge of his line.
With the exception of the 9-2 pasting in Washington in which not a single Flyers forward played well, Frost has been creating a healthy volume of scoring chances over the last few weeks although points have remained sparse. Brink had a third-period power play assist in Washington and seemed a little more comfortable in his second game despite the 4-0 loss to the Rangers.
Travis Konecny leads the Flyers in overall point production since the All-Star break with 20 points (5g, 15a) in his last 28 games. However, after surging in the latter part of February and much of March, Konecny's output has dropped again over the past few weeks.
Over his last eight games, Konecny has posted two points (1g, 0a). Beyond a three-game goal streak to open the 2021-22 season, goals have been tough to come by for him for much of this season."TK" racked up assists at a very healthy rate during his offensive hot stretch in February and March but he couldn't quite get back into a sustained goal-scoring groove.
With the score tied at 2-2 in the second period of the April 9 game against Anaheim, Konecny had an apparent slam-dunk opportunity at the left post as a potential tic-tac-toe sequence started by Frost and James van Riemdsyk unfolded. Unfortunately, Konecny put the puck off the post rather than in the open short-side of the net. In the 4-0 loss to the Rangers, the Flyers had a chance to cut a 3-0 deficit to two goals during a 4-on-4 manpower situation in the second period. Frost passed to Kevin Connauton, who made a good feed to Konecny in the lower left slot for a Grade-A scoring chance. Konecny was unable to finish it.
After Wednesday's loss to the Rangers, Konecny said that it's hard not to dwell on a missed scoring opportunity when pucks haven't been going in the net whereas a missed chance amid a hot streak is simpler put aside mentally because the player himself expects more chances -- and goals -- will soon follow.
"I have to get back to the mentality where I'm not just hoping I beat the goalie. I know the puck will go in," Konecny said. The player said that he also sees room for improvement in getting himself to the areas below and between the faceoff dots rather than shooting from the perimeter.
The Flyers are once again dealing with a slew of injuries. Team-leading scorer Cam Atkinson (23 goals, 50 points) will miss his second straight game due to a lower-body injury sustained in the first period of the Washington game. It is possible that Atkinson could return for Sunday's rematch with the Sabres in Philadelphia but that decision will not be made until game-day. Atkinson skated briefly on Friday ahead of the team's practice. With Atkinson unavailable, youngsters such Owen Tippett and Frost getting point opportunities but seeing few go up on the board and Brink less than a week into his pro career, the Flyers offensive is extremely reliant on Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk, Farabee and Konecny to not only generate scoring chances but make them show up on the scoreboard.
2. A "Dream Come True" for Zamula
Flyers rookie defenseman Egor Zamula, a second-year pro, has never made a secret of his strong admiration for Ivan Provorov. Even before Zamula was signed by the Flyers as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2018, he followed Provorov's career closely. Since joining the Flyers organization, Zamula has looked up to Provorov as a mentor of sorts. Now the two will play together as defense partners in Saturday's game, with Provorov in his customary left-defense spot and the left-handed shooting Zamula on the right. The 22-year-old Zamula described the opportunity as "a dream come true."
"I watched how Provy played in the World Juniors and in the NHL," Zamula said. "For me, he's a top-two or top-one Russian defenseman in this league. Him and [Mikhail] Sergachev. I think if I play with him, I will learn more and it's better for me."
Zamula is getting this chance because Cam York is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Rasmus Ristolainen is dealing with an upper-body injury and could miss roughly a week, according to Yeo. The Flyers projected lineup for Saturday's game is as follows:
25 James van Riemsdyk -13 Kevin Hayes - 74 Owen Tippett
49 Noah Cates or 23 Oskar Lindblom - 21 Scott Laughton - 11 Travis Konecny
86 Joel Farabee - 38 Morgan Frost - 46 Bobby Brink
23 Oskar Lindblom or 49 Noah Cates - 44 Nate Thompson - 17 Zack MacEwen
9 Ivan Provorov - 54 Egor Zamula
6 Travis Sanheim - 8 Kevin Connauton
3 Keith Yandle - 47 Ronnie Attard
35 Martin Jones
[32 Felix Sandström]
3. Inside the Numbers
When scoring the first goal of the game, the Flyers are 18-7-7. When trailing first, the Flyers are a dismal 5-33-4. The Sabres are 21-13-5 when scoring first and 6-25-6 when trailing first.
For the season, the Flyers have a minus-32 goal differential (143 GF - 175 GA) at 5-on-5, while the Sabres are minus-39 (145 GF - 184 GA). Buffalo is a little below the middle of the pack in power play efficiency (20.7 percent, ranked 18th) while the Flyers rank last in the 32-team league (12.7 percent). Compounding the problem, the Flyers have also coughed up 11 opposing shorthanded goals (ranked 31st). The Flyers penalty kill enters this game ranked 23rd (76.3 percent) while Buffalo ranks 25th (75.1 percent).
April 16: Flyers vs Sabres
— Bill Meltzer (@billmeltzer) April 16, 2022
Key team stat rankings: pic.twitter.com/VtrUmwExpE
No matter how the two teams' underlying numbers are sliced and diced, it's easy to find out why the two teams are buried near the bottom of the NHL standings.
All-situation shot attempt differentials: The Flyers rank 26th (47.1 percent team Corsi), while the Sabres rank 22nd (47.69).
Shot quality differentials: The Flyers rank 29th in all-situation expected goal share (45.28 percent) while the Sabres rank 30th (44.7 percent).
Additionally, while the Flyers have made some improvements, they do not generate enough controlled exits from the defensive zones, controlled entries into the offensive zone, opposing turnovers created in dangerous areas or enough time spent with puck possession in general. The teams that rank at or near the bottom of these process-driven areas are the Arizona Coyotes Montreal Canadiens, Sabres, Flyers, Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks. All of the teams also rank within the bottom eight of the overall league standings.
In terms of bottom-line offensive output, the Sabres rank 25th at 2.72 goals per game while the Flyers rank 30th at 2.55. The Sabres' team 3.54 goals against average ranks 25th while the Flyers rank 27th at 3.58. Both teams yield too many shots per game, both in quantity and quality.
It was just two seasons ago that the Flyers ranked No. 1 in the NHL in terms of opposing team shot suppression (2019-20 season). Now they rank 29th, ahead only of Montreal, Arizona and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
4. Behind Enemy Lines: Buffalo Sabres
Thompson has had a breakout year, compiling a team-leading 33 goals and 60 points. He's also been the Sabres' most productive player of late, with five points (2g, 3a) over his last five games.
In the meantime, after being deep in the doghouse of former head coach Ralph Krueger, Skinner has had a resurgence since Granato took over behind the bench. This season, the 29-year-old former 40-goal scorer has rebounded to post 31 goals and 55 points in 74 games played.
Twenty-two-year-old Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson, a Voorhees native and the son of Flyers Alum defenseman and longtime developmental coach Kjell, has been dealing with a lower-body injury. He may be able to return to action during the weekend set with the Flyers.
Per the Sabres' official website, these were the line combinations at Friday's practice:
53 Jeff Skinner - 72 Tage Thompson - 71 Victor Olofsson
19 Peyton Krebs - 37 Casey Mittelstadt - 89 Alex Tuch
74 Rasmus Asplund - 24 Dylan Cozens - 21 Kyle Okposo
96 Anders Bjork - 28 Zemgus Girgensons - 29 Vinnie Hinostroza
78 Jacob Bryson - 26 Rasmus Dahlin
25 Owen Power - 10 Henri Jokiharju
4 Will Butcher 45 Casey Fitzgerald
41 Craig Anderson
31 Dustin Tokarski
Extras: 20 Cody Eakin, 15 John Hayden. 33 Colin Miller, 13 Mark Pysyk.
5. Player to Watch: van Riemsdyk and Power
James van Riemsdyk, as with most of the Flyers team, has not produced to the level the Flyers needed or expected from him over the course of the 2021-22 campaign. However, he leads the team over the last 10 games with five goals including three tallies over the last five games. He has reached the 20-goal mark on the season; the seventh season in his career in which he's done so. However, JVR's overall 33 points represents his lowest career output in a season in which he's played at least 50 games.
Drafted by the Sabres with the first overall pick of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, 19-year-old defenseman Owen Power turned pro recently after his sophomore season at the University of Michigan. A former teammate of Cam York, Power's Wolverines were knocked out in the Frozen Four semifinals by Brink's eventual national champion Denver Pioneers. Saturday's game against Flyers will be the third of Power's fledgling NHL career. He recorded his first career assist in Thursday's game against St. Louis and logged 23:10 of ice time after skating 19:50 in his NHL debut against Toronto.