5 THINGS: Flyers vs. Predators

Playing the third game of their four-game homestand, John Tortorella's Philadelphia Flyers (22-22-9) are home on Saturday afternoon to take on John Hynes' Nashville Predators (24-19-9). Game time at the Wells Fargo Center is 12:30 p.m. ET.

GAME NOTES
The game will be televised on NBCSP. The radio broadcast is on 97.5 The Fanatic with an online simulcast on Flyers Radio 24/7.
This is the second and final meeting of the season between the inter-conference teams, and the lone game in Philadelphia. Back on October 22 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, the Flyers earned a 3-1 win. In arguably his best performance of the 2022-23 season, Joel Farabee enjoyed a three-point night (1g, 2a), made a couple nice defensive plays and had three shots on goal in 18:49 of ice time. Carter Hart flirted with a shutout for 57-plus minutes before finishing with 31 saves on 32 shots. Juuse Saros stopped 22 of 25 shots. Kevin Hayes and Zack MacEwen had the other Flyers' goals. Matt Duchene (power play goal, 17:42 of the third period) had the lone Nashville goal.
The Flyers enter today's game coming off arguably their best game of the 2022-23 season from a structure and discipline standpoint as they defeated the Edmonton Oilers via shootout, 2-1 (2-1). Hayes (16th goal of the season) notched the lone regulation tally, while Morgan Frost and James van Riemsdyk converted their shootout opportunities. The Flyers rendered the Oilers' lethal power play a non-factor by not taking a single penalty all night. Hart was outstanding, too, and authored 34 saves on 35 shots in regulation and overtime before stopping Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the skills competition.
The Predators have an exceptionally light schedule on either end of the All-Star Break, playing just three games in the first 15 days of February and only a single road game (today's) in the first 18 days of the month. On Tuesday, the Predators stumbled in their first period of play after the break to an even greater extent than the Flyers did against the Islanders in the first period of Monday's 2-1 loss. The Preds were strafed for three goals in the opening period and went on to lose to the Vegas Golden Knights by a 5-1 score. Duchene (15th goal of the season) tallied the lone Predators' goal. Saros made 25 saves in a losing cause.
Here are five things to watch in Saturday's game.
1. Konecny and Farabee
Neither Travis Konecny (pointless in his last six games, no goals and three assists in his last 11 games) nor Farabee (pointless in his last 10 games) were able to get on the scoresheet in the Oilers game. However, Konecny was at least getting himself into the scoring areas and had a couple of bonafide chances for a goal among his three shots on goal in the match against Edmonton. In the previous game against the Islanders, Konecny was very quiet offensively except for one nice stickhandling sequence in the first period.
Farabee seemed to take a baby step forward in the Edmonton game. He was more noticeably effective on the forecheck and had his first game finishing with multiple shots on goal since January 21 in Detroit. Getting Farabee to generate more shots on goal (and hopefully start putting some in the net again) would be very helpful for a scoring-by-committee team such as the Flyers.
Tortorella has cut Farabee's ice time lately. He played between 11:37 and 15:12 dating back to the final game before the All-Star break. Notably, the head coach moved him off the top line with Noah Cates and Konecny. Recently, Tortorella put Farabee on a line with Frost and Wade Allison. A close friend of Farabee's off the ice, Frost's own recent play prior to a stellar game against Edmonton drew the ultra-demanding head coach's displeasure.
2. The goals-by-committee big picture
Tortorella vehemently believes -- with some justification -- that the deeper and deeper a team goes into the season, the diligence and attention to detail the team pays to its checking and structure becomes the No. 1 key to success. He stressed this again after practice on Friday, noting that goals become harder to come by leaguewide down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Even as the Flyers had their most successful offensive (and win-loss record) juncture of the season from the end of the leaguewide holiday break until the latter portion of January, Tortorella inevitably talked about continual improvement of the checking game -- forechecking as well as defending -- and grinding out victories in a replicable fashion as his biggest area of focus.
The Flyers have gone 2-1-1 in their last four games, and held opponents to two, one or zero (Winnipeg game) goals in all four games. However, the Flyers offensive output could use a boost again. Philly has scored two or fewer regulation goals in four of the last five games. Taking it back to a 6-0 shutout loss in Boston on MLK Day, the Flyers have generated two or fewer goals in regulation in seven of the last 10 games and no more than three goals in eight of the last 10 matches.
As Tortorella noted, the margins for error leaguewide historically tend to shrink as the stretch drive draws closer and closer. Even so, being tied for last in the NHL in offensive output (2.20 GPG) in a 10-game span is a big reason why the Flyers are 4-4-2 in that span despite being on the cusp of the league's top one-third (ranked 11th) in lowest team GAA at 2.80 over the same span.
The 2-1 loss to the Islanders earlier this week and 3-2 overtime loss in Minnesota on Jan. 26 are good examples of how thin the margin can be, just as the 2-1 shootout win over the Oilers on Thursday and 2-1 regulation victory in Detroit on Jan. 21 balance the scales in such games. It certainly wouldn't hurt if Philly could start scratching out a few more goals again while continuing to build off their checking improvements. An even 3.00 goals per game is the NHL median per team over the time period we're examining. The Flyers have been 8/10ths of a goal per game (0.80) under that bar in the last 10 games.
Yes, the Flyers need to keep checking well and getting strong goaltending. Those are musts. But they also need to score more than they have in the last 10 games and for the season as a whole (2.72 GPG, ranked 27th). Against the Predators, however, the most likely outcome is another low-scoring game for both sides.
3. Marquee goalie matchup
Carter Hart will get the start in goal for the Flyers against the Predators. For the season, he is 16-15-8 in 38 starts with a 2.80 goals against average and .913 save percentage. Hart got off to a scorching hot start to the season that was unsustainable for any netminder. He then leveled off, generally playing well but also not looking infallible. Of late, Hart has heated up again.
In his last 10 starts, Hart is 5-3-2 with a 2.31 GAA and .929 save percentage. Almost every game, he gives the Flyers a chance to win if they can cobble together some goal support. Even if the sample size is cut down to his last eight starts to put more statistical weight on the lopsided loss in Boston where he was pulled at 7:35 of the second period with four goals allowed 16 shots, he's still gone 3-3-2 with a 2.39 GAA and .925 save percentage.
For the second time in his NHL career, Saros represented Nashville at the recent All-Star Game. For the season, the Finn is 19-14-5 with a 2.78 goals against average and .918 save percentage. While those numbers are solid in their own right, they are also somewhat deceptive.
Saros got off to a slow start by his standards but has been stellar since mid-November. Looking at his last 28 outings dating back to Nov. 12, 2022, Saros is 16-8-4 with a 2.55 GAA and .926 save percentage. Very recently, however, Saros has cooled off slightly. In his last six starts, Saros has won four times but has a 3.02 GAA and .913 save percentage.
Saros' backup, countryman Kevin Lankinen, is 5-4-1 in 10 starts and one relief appearance this season with 2.64 GAA and .924 save percentage. Meanwhile, come tomorrow when the Flyers play Seattle, the Flyers will either have to start Hart for the third time in less than four nights (unlikely), turn to backup Felix Sandström (1-7-1, 3.45 GAA, .887 SV%) or recall top goalie prospect Samuel Ersson despite the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms having had games on both Friday and Saturday.
For the Flyers, that's a decision for another day, but it raises the stakes even further in how the goalie rotation is selected -- and the results it produces -- this weekend.
4. Flyers line play
With back-to-back matinee games this weekend, the Flyers will not hold morning skates the next two days. Tortorella never confirms his starting goalie ahead of game day, and there is no media availability on Saturday due to the 12:30 starting time. As such, the projection that Hart starts on Saturday and then the team figures out Sunday's starter later on is speculatory and unconfirmed.
In terms of line combinations, 11 of the 12 forwards and the main three pairings of six defensemen can be predicted (barring illness or pregame injury) with a high degree of confidence. The Flyers practiced on Friday with the same forward and defense combos they featured in Monday's game against the Islanders and Thursday's tilt against Edmonton.
The one uncertainty: On Friday, the Flyers placed seldom-used right winger Kieffer Bellows (15 GP, 1g, 0a, 1 point) on waivers for the second time this season. A player can dress for a game while on waivers and need not be sent to the AHL if he clears. However, the Flyers also have the option of dressing 11 forwards and seven defenseman instead while awaiting Bellows' waiver-wire fate. Philly could choose to have veteran defenseman Justin Braun dress for Saturday's game, rotate him on the third pairing with offensive defenseman Tony DeAngelo (with DeAngelo also seeing power play time).
The 11F/7D option makes logical sense based on Tortorella's public displeasure with DeAngelo's defensive play and his apparent skepticism over whether Bellows can play to a sufficient pace to hold a regular lineup slot while the Flyers await the return of rugged fourth-line winger MacEwen from surgery to repair a broken jaw suffered in the game in Minnesota. However, the projected lineup below reflects both the 12F/6D and 11F/7D possibilities with Braun and Bellows' names and lineup spots indicated in brackets.
In terms of projected power play units, the lineup below features the units that have been used in each of the last four games -- a veteran-dominated PP1 and a youth-dominated PP2 -- but these, too, are subject to change.
25 James van Riemsdyk - 49 Noah Cates - 11 Travis Konecny
13 Kevin Hayes - 21 Scott Laughton - 74 Owen Tippett
86 Joel Farabee - 48 Morgan Frost - 57 Wade Allison
44 Nicolas Deslauriers - 38 Patrick Brown - [20 Kieffer Bellows]
9 Ivan Provorov - 45 Cam York
6 Travis Sanheim - 55 Rasmus Ristolainen
24 Nick Seeler - 77 Tony DeAngelo
[61 Justin Braun]
79 Carter Hart
[32 Felix Sandström]
PP1: JVR, Laughton, Konecny, Hayes, DeAngelo
PP2: Tippett, Frost, Cates, Farabee, York
5. Behind enemy lines: Nashville Predators
The Predators have a considerably stronger home record at 14-8-1 this season (with one of their eight regulation losses coming at the Flyers' hands early this season) than their 10-13-3 mark on the road. For the remainder of the season, improving on the road will remain a key goal. The Flyers, meanwhile, have actually been a better road team than home club (11-13-2).
As much as almost any team in the NHL, the Predators are a team that generates a significant portion of its attack from the back end. This is true both in terms of defensemen joining the attack and in triggering the breakout with precision passes. Any time a team plays Nashville, they have to be very aware of whatever almost-perennial Norris Trophy candidate Roman Josi (12 goals, 30 assists, 42 points, 111 blocked shots, 25:06 TOI) is doing.
The Predators are a different type of opponent than either of the last two clubs the Flyers have faced on the current homestand. The Oilers are heavily reliant on a juggernaut power play to put them over the top because they give up nearly as many 5-on-5 goals as they score. The Islanders are a grind-it-out club in the old-school "Patrick Division" mode, much as Tortorella has tried to mold the Flyers to be. Of the two most recent opponents, the Predators are closer to being like the Islanders than resembling the Oilers but Nashville has the superior blueline personnel but slightly lesser forwards overall.
The Predators are normally a hard team to score against at 5-on-5, allowing 89 goals to date. They also have a generally solid penalty kill, ranking 12th in the NHL at 80.7 percent.
On the flip side, Nashville doesn't score much, either. They average 2.78 goals per game, ranking 26th in the NHL (one spot above the Flyers, at 2.72 GPG). The Predators have tallied a modest 93 times at 5-on-5.
On the power play, the Predators have scarcely been better than Philly. The Flyers have dropped back to the bottom of the 32-team NHL at 15.5 percent on the power play (25-for-161) while Nashville ranks 28th at 16.5 percent (26-for-158). The Flyers penalty kill checks in at 77.1 percent (ranked 19th) but the Predators have to be aware of the Flyers' shorthanded counterattacking ability and the nine SHGs Philly has notched this season.
Up front, veteran Filip Forsberg leads the team with 19 goals and 42 points. He's tied with Josi for overall points. Veteran forward Matt Duchene is next with 39 points (15g, 24a), followed by fellow vets Mikael Granlund (6g, 22a, 28 points), Ryan Johansen (11g, 14a, 25 points) and Nino Niederreiter (13g, 10a, 23 points).
Projected lineup (subject to change, based on last game per NashvillePredators.com)
Filip Forsberg - Cody Glass - Matt Duchene
Nino Niederreiter - Ryan Johansen - Mikael Granlund
Cole Smith - Juuso Pärssinen - Colton Sissons
Yakov Trenin - Tommy Novak - Tanner Jeannot
Ryan McDonagh - Roman Josi
Mattias Ekholm - Jeremy Lauzon
Kevin Gravel - Dante Fabbro
Juuse Saros
[Kevin Lankinen]