Along with the other 30 National Hockey League teams that will lose a player in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft, the Philadelphia Flyers have released their protected player list that was filed with the National Hockey League at 5 p.m. ET on July 17. As with most teams with the exception of the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Flyers opted to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie as opposed to eight skaters of any position plus a goaltender.
Instant Analysis: Flyers Release Expansion Draft Protection List
The Flyers released their list of players protected from the Seattle Expansion Draft on Sunday
The Flyers' protected list is as follows:
Forwards (7):Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Kevin Hayes, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, and Oskar Lindblom.
Defensemen (3):Ryan Ellis, Ivan Provorov, and Travis Sanheim.
Goaltender (1):Carter Hart.
The most notable exposed Flyers players who are available to the Seattle Kraken, who will pick one (and only one) player omitted from each team's Expansion Draft-eligible protected list: forwards James van Riemsdyk and Jakub Voracek as well as defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere, Justin Braun and Robert Hägg.
The Flyers' decision to protect the 25-year-old Aube-Kubel, who took a backward step in his play in 2020-21 but showed promise as a bottom-six forward the previous season is largely driven by the salary cap. Seattle may have been tempted to select Aube-Kubel, whose contract carries a $1.07 million average annual value and expires in the summer of 2022 (arbitration-eligible restricted free agent). Protecting Aube-Kubel increases the chances that Seattle's most viable selection strategy from Philadelphia will be to take a player who would create added salary cap relief for the Flyers.
Saturday's trade that brought Ryan Ellis to the Flyers in exchange for Phil Myers and arbitration-ineligible restricted free agent center Nolan Patrick left the Flyers with $9,385,477 of available cap space this season under the ceiling. The club still has a pair of unsigned restricted free agents (arbitration-eligible defenseman Travis Sanheim and arbitration-ineligible goalie Carter Hart).
The absorption of Ellis' contract means a $6.25 million AAV obligation. The subtraction of Myers ($2.66 million AAV) and Patrick (an arbitration-ineligible restricted free agent who made $874,125 last season) netted a negative $3.59 million impact on the Flyers' available offseason cap space ahead of the Expansion Draft.
However, depending on whom the Flyers lose in the NHL Expansion Draft and whatever maneuvering (if any) is made around it that impacts Philadelphia's cap space, the Flyers could potentially end up net-positive in cap space relative to where they started the offseason. Here are four possible scenarios:
1) Seattle selects Gostisbehere. "Ghost" has two seasons left on his current contract at a $4.5 million AAV. If Kraken general manager Ron Francis selected him in the expansion Draft, the Flyers' addition of Ellis and subtractions of Gostisbehere and Myers would net a positive $910,000 salary cap space differential for Philadelphia relative to where they were before Saturday. In terms of available cap dollars, that would send the Flyers into Entry Draft weekend/ looming free agency season with a maximum of $13,885,477 of cap space under the ceiling and still retain all seven of their 2021 Entry Draft choices if no "sweeteners" (i.e., draft picks sent as an incentive) were involved.
2) Seattle selects van Riemsdyk. JVR has two years left on his contract at a $7 million cap hit. If Seattle selects van Riemsdyk, the Flyers would have a maximum of $16,385,477 of cap space available heading into the NHL Entry Draft and free agency season. However, there'd be a replacement cost on the other end for the Flyers to account for the offensive production lost.
3) Seattle selected Voracek. Voracek has three years remaining on his contract at a $8.25 million AAV. If Seattle selects the veteran Czech winger, the Flyers would have a maximum of $17,635,477 available. However, due to the fact that Voracek has both the highest cap hit and longest remaining term, he'd be the most likely player (with JVR second and Gostisbehere third) to require a side deal with Seattle receiving sweeteners in return. It's also possible that the Kraken could be the middle man in a three-team deal that flips another clubs player to Philadelphia. This would require assets over and above Voracek.
4) Seattle selects Braun or Hägg. It's not totally out of the realm of possibility that the Kraken organization throws a curveball and opts to take 34-year-old defenseman Braun rather than one of the higher cap hit veterans. Perhaps Ron Francis may see Braun as a low-maintenance and relatively low-cost option to provide some first-year leadership to the brand new team. With an expiring contract after next season, Braun could also be flipped at the trade deadline for a 2022 Draft asset. Playing through this scenario, Braun's $1.8 million AAV would come off the books for the Flyers and the team would have $11,185,477 of cap space. Hägg's selection would have very similar ramifications. He has one year left on his current contract at a $1.6 million cap hit.
Overall, the more cap relief that the Flyers can get via the Expansion Draft, the more money they'll have available to address other teams this offseason. Other players who are fair game for selection by Seattle from the Flyers include Connor Bunnaman, German Rubtsov, Carsen Twarynski, and goaltending prospect Felix Sandström. It's far likelier, however, that the Kraken select someone who is a lock for their NHL roster.
