Meltzer's 2023 Mock Draft

The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is widely considered to be one of the deepest Draft pools in recent years, especially for forwards. National pundit Craig Button recently opined that he believes there are roughly 20 to 24 prospects available who, without too much of a leap of faith, have top-six forward or top-four defensemen upside if they develop as hoped. There are also the usual assorted sleepers who could surge in their post-Draft year after being selected beyond the first round.

However, this year is considered relatively shallow in terms of currently projectable top-three defensemen. It's an above average Draft in terms of goalies -- possibly even including a first-rounder. This mock Draft will not reflect the goalie depth but Flyers general manager Brent Flahr expects there to be a run on goalies taken in close proximity at some point on Day Two of the Draft.

The 2023 Draft is another good one for prospects from US National Team Development Program (NTDP) -- a frequent talent source for the Flyers in recent Drafts. It's also a good year for the CHL (particularly the Western Hockey League and Sweden..

In terms of sheer talent, there could be as many as four Russian prospects selected in the first round but their actual Draft range is a bit tougher to pin down. Flahr thinks the top Russians will be selected within or close to NHL teams' internal BPA (best player available) ranges but it's also possible there will be a surprise or two come Wednesday in how highly one or more of the most-touted Russians rise or fall in the actual selection order.

The usual smattering of USHL players and players already in college -- including the consensus second overall pick and another potential top-20 pick -- are scattered within this year's potential first round. At some point within the two days, their also figure to be a few players who were in a Canadian Junior A circuit, a prep school or a US high school in 2022-23 but those won't be reflected in the mock.

The 2023 Draft crop is a relatively weak year for Finland on the top end. but there could be some good values in later rounds.There's an Austrian (playing in Switzerland), a Slovak (playing in Sweden), a couple of Czechs (one in the WHL, one in the USHL) and a Dane (playing in Sweden) who are all in the mix for selection this year. Hockey is truly a global game nowadays.

In the actual NHL Draft, different teams have different methodologies in how they weight their internal Draft rankings. Some teams go strictly by their list and rarely if ever deviate from it based on BPA defined as most well-rounded projected games at the pro level. Others give a little more risk tolerance and weigh priority on projected offensive ceilings above two-way games. Many teams have a preference for centers over wingers (unless the winger plays a center-like game or has a projected 1st-line caliber ceiling). Risk tolerance for lack of size, skating question marks, lack of consensus on hockey sense, character or competitiveness red flags can also vary from scout to scout and team to team.

In doing a mock 1st round for all 32 NHL clubs, it's easiest to use only one potential criteria set and exclude positional need. I have a personal preference of higher-floor players with high ceilings (but not necessarily the absolute highest ceiling if it's a sheer home run or swing and miss proposition with little in between). Let's get to it.

1st overall: Connor Bedard -- C (Chicago Blackhawks)

No mystery or explanation is needed here. Bedard is the universal pick here as a "can't miss" NHL offensive impact player, likely franchise player and potential generational talent.

The only slight question mark is whether Bedard will stay at center for the long haul or ultimately be deployed as a winger. He's not the best two-way player in this year's Draft, far from the biggest and not the absolute fastest linear skater. Will any of that affect his Draft position or reduce the odds of NHL superstar status? Nope. Not with those hands, hockey sense, quickness and elusiveness.

2nd overall: Adam Fantilli-- C (Anaheim Ducks)

Another no-brainer pick. There's some noise about the Ducks going in a different direction but that seems like a sheer smokescreen. Fantilli is both extremely gifted and well-rounded in the traits that pretty much all scouts value. The 18-year-old also pleased scouts by taking on a bottom-six role for Team Canada internally and handling the altered responsibilities well even though it reduced the teenager's offensive opportunities.

He still projects as a No. 1 center in the NHL. Fantilli is a late birthday player (October 12, 2004) who was born a few weeks too late to qualify for the 2022 Draft. Sometimes that can knock a player's rankings down a few slots. Not with Fantilli. If not an absolutely unanimous projection for second overall in a BPA, he's very close to that.

3rd overall: Leo Carlsson -- C/LW (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Carlsson is a consensus top three pick in this year's Draft but not a lock. He's big, skates well, is highly skilled with the puck on his stick and has a ceiling of being a two-way impact player. What's not to like? There's a minority of dissenters who question his "compete" level for pucks, grit, and willingness to use his size to his advantage.

Carlsson himself prefers to play center and the majority of projections are that he will be a 1st-line or 2nd-line center in the NHL as he matures. However, there are dissenters who say he'd be best off as an NHL winger.

From the third pick onward, there's a possibility that a team takes a home run swing on Matvei Michkov (or maybe even trades up to do) or opts for someone such as Will Smith or their top-rated defensemen. However, I won't take Michkov off the board quite yet.

4th overall: Matvei Michkov -- RW (San Jose Sharks)

You've heard the hype: Game-breaking scoring upside and elite creativity and finish. You've read the much-debated signability question (Three-season wait? Five-year wait ala Kirill Kaprizov?) surrounding all Russian players but especially Michkov. You may also be familiar with critiques of his two-way play or supposed concerns over character, coachability and temperament (all of which could be an outright smokescreen).

When all is said and done, however, the chance that Michkov is the only player in this Draft class with a realistic shot of approaching Bedard's offensive ceiling is mighty hard to ignore. The Sharks can afford to wait three years on him (as could the Flyers) and other teams would interest in a trade-up scenario if the Sharks lean elsewhere. A Kaprizov-like wait would probably know Michkov down a bit, but that possibility is sheer speculation.

The gifted Russian would be a very defensible BPA pick here or at any point thereafter. I have a hard time picturing him slipping to the Flyers at 7th or the Capitals at 8th. It's tolerable risk tolerance, in my opinion.

5th overall: Ryan Leonard -- RW (Montreal Canadiens)

Full disclosure: Unless Michkov were to drop to seventh, Leonard is the player I'd select for the Flyers if he's on the board. Even if Michkov is there, I'd still hate passing on Leonard. But the Flyers aren't the only team that figures to have the USNTDP high on their rankings list, and Montreal is said to be one such club.

Leonard does pretty much everything well: excellent skater, one of the best shooters in the Draft, plays a tenacious game in puck pursuit, powerfully built, back-checks diligently and plays with just the right amount of swagger. As one scout put it, he has "the hands of a goal scorer and the soul of a checker" with good feet as well.

Leonard, who can potentially play any forward position, has one of the highest floors on the Draft. The main question mark: Is he "only" a quility complementary player to high-end linemates or a future NHL impact player in his own right? The 2022-23 season was the first one in which the incoming Boston College freshman put up big offensive stats.

6th overall: Will Smith -- C (Arizona Coyotes)

Smith is a top-four caliber talent -- arguably a top-five shooter, playmaker, and stickhandler who rates highly in offensive anticipation on creativity. He centered the dominating top USNTDP line with Leonard and Gabe Perreault (who are headed to Boston College next season). There are plenty of reputable rankings -- and mock Drafts -- that place in the four or five spot.

There are also rumors that Arizona will be the first club to take a defenseman off the board. However, with Smith still on the board in this mock, I went for the high offensive upside forward over the two-way defenseman. There are some knocks on Smith as a player with basically average skating, concerns over how he'll compete against tight checking at the pro level, and a trendency leave the D-zone early (even as a center). How legitimate those issues are as a pro remain to be seen. There's no doubt the player's offensive ceiling is sky high if he approaches it.

7th overall -- Dalibor Dvorsky -- C (FLYERS)

In this mock Draft, the first six picks didn't work out quite the way many Flyers fans would ideally want.The consolation prize: There are still plenty of high-quality prospects on the board for whom a compelling argument could be made.

For one, there's defenseman David Reinbacher, who is often projected as the top all-around blueliner in the Draft. Among forwards, a vocal contingent (especially on social media) would howl for selection of winger Zach Benson. A few love ultra-speedy USNTDP center Oliver Moore or gifted USNTDP playmaker Gabe Perreault. The list goes on.

I'm going instead with two-way Slovakian center Dvorsky. He has all-situations upside (for example, ranked first or second as a shutdown center in a couple of NHL scout polls, top five as a shooter and among the most competitive as well). He didn't turn 18 until after the 2022-23 season. Nonetheless, at the WJC, he was matched head-to-head with Bedard (Team Canada), Logan Coolley (Team USA) and Joakim Kemell (Team Finland). Their deadly lines were collectively held to two goals with Dvorsky's line on the ice. Later, at the Under-18 Worlds, Dvorsky showed off his deadly shot and racked up eight goals and 13 points in seven games.

Dvorsky will play in Sweden for two additional seasons before his ETA in North America. There are some who question his true offensive upside and his skating, while technically fine, is fairly average. But his two-way game, shooting ability and will to win are beyond reproach.

8th overall: David Reinbacher -- D (Washington Capitals)

With Michkov gone and seven forwards already off the board, now may the time to grab one of the relatively low number of defensemen who are considered surefire first-round picks. The right-handed shooting Reinbacher is a well-rounded prospect with the upside to be above-average to well above-average in every key facet of the game and has the type of physical profile that most organizations seek when considering a defenseman this early in a Draft.

The offensive side is a developmental projection with Reinbacher, but the defensive play, mobility, and puck-moving upsides are there as a near-future minutes-eating blueliner.

Note, however, that there are two highly regarded Russian defensemen in this year's Draft class: fleet-footed and big-framed shutdown defenseman Dmitri Simashev and elite skating but smallish offensive defenseman Mikhail Guyayev. As much discussed in reference to Michkov, the Capitals have had good success in drafting from Russia.

Additionally, Swedish defenseman Tom Wallinder rose with a bullet in the second half of the season (so much so that Button ranked him 8th in his final ratings). There are also some clubs that really like the offensive upside of another Swede, Axel Sandin Pellikka.

So it's not a foregone conclusion that Reinbacher will automatically be the first defenseman off the board. But h hime's nevertheless still the consensus name in many public rankings.

9th overall: Zach Benson -- RW (Detroit Red Wings)

Benson is a player who has a very vocal group of supporters. It's not hard to understand why: He has an elite-caliber hockey IQ, outstanding playmaking skills, plays a two-way game that is highly effective at the major junior level, the moxie to get to the scoring areas and outstanding edgework that makes him elusive.

However, many projections rank Benson on the bubble of-- or a few spots beyond -- the top 10. Why? It's because of the combination of being small (5-foot-9 3/4) and a strictly average linear skater. Benson has a center's 200-foot awareness (he has past experience at the position) but is projected solely as a winger as a pro. So there's also positional bias at play in certain rankings.

Even Benson's ability to adapt his strong junior off-puck game to the NHL pace when matched against bigger and stronger opponents gets questioned bysome who scout for a living. (It should be added, though, that others think he'll adjust just fine because of his overall hockey sense, especially as a winger).

Despite the depth of this year's Draft class and the presence of stiff competition, it's easy to build a compelling case for Benson making the top 10 come Wednesday. The questions raised around this player are not that different than some of the concerns that pushed Claude Giroux down to a 22nd overall selection in the 2006 Draft. Ditto Brayden Point, who was a third-round pick (79th overall) in the 2014 Draft.

Even some pundits and scouts who rank Benson beyond their top 10 concede that he has the skills and hockey brain to eventually outshine players chosen earlier in 2023. It might take until he's 22 or 23, but there's a lot to like about his long-term chances of becoming an impact NHLer.

10th overall: Colby Barlow -- LW (St. Louis Blues)

Despite Owen Sound Attack captain Colby Barlow lacking an elite playmaking center, no Draft-eligible CHL player other than Connor Bedard has scored more goals. A classic power winger who produced consistently all year, Barlow has outstanding hands: he has a heavy shot from the flank but is also particularly good at generating deflections, coming up with the puck in scrambles and knocking in rebounds (often created by Barlow screens).

Barlow also gets strong marks as a potential future NHL leadership group player. He works tirelessly, competes hard and is willing to do anything asked of him. He's both a "process player" -- good on the walls, buys into systems, etc. -- and a finisher.

While Barlow's upside as a future NHL impact player isn't embraced by all scouts, many of the believers are passionate in arguing that he belongs in the top 10 of any Draft class including this year's.

St. Louis currently owns three picks in the first round (this one and then the 25th and 29th selections), although it's possible that one of the latter selections are dealt for cap relief amid a retool effort. Barlow at 10th overall is a good start. Perhaps a swing-for-the fences forward or a defenseman may be a good risk with one of the later first rounders.

11th overall: Gabe Perreault -- RW (Vancouver Canucks)

Perreault was the top point-getter on the USNTDP's vaunted top line in 2022-23. In fact, he set a team single-season record with 132 points (53 goals, 79 assists) in 63 games played. However, he only recently moved to the cusp of the top 10 range in many final rankings (including his 10th overall ranking by Bob McKenzie, based heavily on input from NHL scouts and scouting directors).

Perreault is almost universally considered a gifted playmaker; possibly even top two inte Draft class. It's other areas -- "average feet and just OK compete" as one scout put it, in combination with below-average size and strength -- that some doubters cited as justification for ranking him in the lower half of the first round at midseason.

Even now, there are some who say that Leonard is the engine that makes the line go, Smith is the purest offensive talent and Perreault is the one who threads the needle but struggles if the line as a whole can't find much ice to make plays. That may not be fair, and it seems like that has been rethought to some degree as final rankings were compiled.

12th overall: Tom Willander -- D (Arizona Coyotes)

While Willander gets less attention than countryman Sandin Pellikka in many public rankings, he's got his share of believers within NHL circles: highly mobile, sound defensively, and a hint of offensive upside provided by him performing effectively in a power play role at the U18s. Willander was one of the fastest risers in many end-of-season rankings compared to mid-season projections. Having bypassed Reinbacher with Smith still on the board at number six, I'm balancing that pick with a well-regarded defenseman here.

13th overall: Oliver Moore -- C (Buffalo Sabres)

The consensus fastest skater in the 2023 Draft class, Moore was sometimes overshadowed on the USNTDP this past season by the exploits of Will Smith's line. Moore is quite often compared to Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin -- a fellow USNTDP alum -- as far as his feet go. In terms of Moore's level of creativity and ability to finish the opportunities his feet generate, there are some mixed reviews.

Sometimes, the breakneck pace Moore plays is ahead of his ability to read and react to the play. He has not shown ideal playmaking ability However, supporters believe Moore will eventually click offensively as a pro because he's an outstanding athlete and yet another high-character player in a Draft that's chock full of players with that trait. He didn't have the same caliber of talent on the wing as Smith but still produced at a decent pace.

14th overall: Dmitri Simashev -- D (Pittsburgh Penguins)

The Russian defenseman shares many traits in common with Reinbacher. Some have said the biggest difference other than handedness (Simashev shoots left) is that Simashev is physically bigger (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) and a more fully polished skater. The concern, apart from the "Russian factor" about signing time-frame and live viewings, is whether Simashev will develop an offensive game. Currently, Simashev projects as much more a defensive defenseman, but perhaps the modern-day version of a shutdown defender who keeps good gaps, can match even high-end attackers stride for stride and plays with a competitive streak.

15th overall: Nate Danielson -- C (Nashville Predators)

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Danielson could go higher than the middle portion of the first round. The Brandon Wheat Kings center is a favorite of some NHL-employed scouts, who view him as a well-rounded center with all-situations upside (including power play duty) and has leadership potential. Danielson's team lacked depth around him, which likely held down some of his offensive totals compared to other Draft hopefuls. Danielson rates as above-average in most areas of the game.

The Wheat Kings' captain is a late birthday player (born Sept. 27, 2004) who missed the birth date eligibility cutoff for the 2022 Entry Draft by a mere 12 days. That's not the player's fault, of course but late birthday players sometimes see their Draft rankings affected to at least some degree.

16th overall: Brayden Yager -- C (Calgary Flames)

The Moose Jaw Warriors center entered the 2022-23 widely pegged as a top-10 candidate but a drop in goal-scoring output from the previous season (34 goals in 63 games to 28 goals in 67 games) and the rise of other talented forwards caused a drop in his consensus Draft projections.

Importantly, though, Yager played through a shoulder injury this season. This can certainly play into a scoring decrease. Additionally, Yager doubled his assist output from 25 helpers to 50; an indicator of finding another way to contribute. Lastly, Yager closed with a rush and had a strong playoff run.

Yager finished the season ranked in the middle of the highest profile final rankings from the likes of Bob McKenzie (15th) and Craig Button (18th). The player also draws praise for his skating mobility, creativity, and innate awareness.

17th overall: Mikhail Gulyayev -- D (Detroit Red Wings)

In this mock Draft, the Red Wings land two of the most purely skilled and clever players in the class: Canadian winger Benson and Russian defenseman Gulyayev.

Gulyayev is a little bit undersized (5-foot-10, 170 pounds), but that's not considered a deal-breaker in today's NHL. Beyond concerns about handling certain matchups and the same geopolitical factors that affect the scouting of Russian players, Gulyayev is one of the more exciting defensemen in this year's crop. He only turned 18 on April 26 yet he's advanced enough to have played more pro (13 in the minor-league VHL, 12 in the KHL) than junior games (22) in Russia this past season.

Gulayev's No. 1 asset is his feet: It's been said that he often draws maximum ratings on the 1-to-9 scale. His other top trait is his ability to move the puck and make clever plays. His shot is average and not overpowering from the point (more dangerous when he pinches down to the slot) but he's already a good playmaking back even at such a tender age.

Detroit has historically had good success with the scouting and development of Russian and Swedish prospects. Sandin Pellikka, whose ranking is higher on the majority of public lists and still on the board in this mock, is a top alternative if the Red Wings were to take a defenseman. (The Swede also doesn't have the nearly the same level of language and cultural adjustments). However, picking Gulyayev here is a nod to his ceiling potentially being a little higher. So is the risk tolerance it would require.

18th overall: Matthew Wood -- LW (Winnipeg Jets)

Although he was overshadowed by Fantilli's freshman play at the University of Michigan and adaptability he showed with Team Canada, UConn winger Wood had a rather impressive first collegiate year, too. Wood's finishing ability, ice vision (he can thread the needle well in addition to shooting), willingness to drive the net and maturity level for a collegiate player who didn't turn 18 until the latter portion of the 2022-23 season are widely praised.

The player has one main drawback: his feet. Wood is considered to be a below-average skater who needs corrective work and more explosiveness. The good news: players such as Dallas Stars standout Jason Robertson, LA Kings winger Arthur Kaliyev, and Flyers prospect Tyson Foerster have worked through similar concerns about their skating. There's no reason Wood can't, too, as someone with a solid work ethic and will to succeed.

19th overall: Quentin Musty -- LW (Chicago Blackhawks)

Musty's collection of attributes -- size combined with above-average skating and a natural scoring touch and playmaking ability -- will likely make him a first-round selection in the latter half of the first round. With Chicago a real-life lock to select Connor Bedard with the first pick of his year's Draft, Musty could make for a potent linemate in the future.

However, Musty is something of a divisive prospect. There are questions over whether his motor matches his skill level. It's always dangerous to read too much, either positively or negatively, into small sample sizes but Musty had a disappointing series after scoring 14 goals in the final 20 games of the regular season. Notably, after playing for Team USA at the Hlinka Gretzky tournament last summer (1g, 4a in four games), Musty did not make Team USA for the Under-18s.

Many players who were once dogged by concerns about work ethic and coachability have gone to make such critiques look silly when they turn pro. Nonetheless, if Musty were to fall beyond the top 20 in the 2023 Draft, these would be primary reasons why his internal rankings by NHL clubs do not match up to the physical profile and skill level.

20th overall: Axel Sandin Pellikka -- D (Seattle Kraken)

The Kraken are a team that typically plays with excellent pace. Swedish defenseman Sandin Pellikka (who is ranked considerably higher on various lists) can handle the pace and move the puck very effectively. There is almost universal praise for his skating, puckhandling and first-pass abilities and no red flags cited about work ethic or character.

There are questions raised, however, about whether he'll be a power play caliber defenseman at the NHL level or primarily a puck-mover. His shot is average (arguably below average for a player often described as an offensive defenseman) and his playmaking, while good, is not elite. Defensively, Sandin Pellikka has good instincts and a quick stick but is unlikely to develop into a shutdown type.

There's nothing wrong with a defenseman who is an outstanding skater, is very good at triggering an attack and wants the puck on his stick. But whether Sandin Pellikka evolves into a bonafide top-three NHL defenseman will depend largely on whether the right-handed back produces points at a healthy clip as a pro in addition to moving the puck.

21st overall: Calum Ritchie -- RW/C (Minnesota Wild)

Big things were expected from the Oshawa Generals alternate captain in his Draft-eligible 2022-23 season. Statistically, at least, he didn't hit the mark (24 goals and 59 points in 59 games).

Keep in mind, however, that Ritchie dealt with a shoulder injury which recurred during the OHL playoffs. His shooting was hampered during the season after posting four goals and nine points at the Hlinka Gretzky tourney (the traditional start of the scouting season for the next Draft). He's always been more of a playmaking forward than a prolific goal scorer, anyway.

There are no knocks on Ritchie's all-around skillset, feet, frame, willingness to apply himself to off-puck tasks, innate hockey sense or his personal character. The concern, apart from the shoulder issues this past season, is whether he gets to the scoring areas consistently enough to project as an NHL impact scorer in his own right.

Button placed Ritchie 11th in his final rankings and 20th in his mock Draft. The intel McKenzie gathered from a wide cross-section of NHL scouts in addition to his own observations resulted in him ranking the player smack dab at 21st overall. There also seems to be a good fit here with Minnesota's style and identity. So at the risk of being too on the nose with placing Richie 21st in the mock, it feels like a safe projection.

22nd overall: Samuel Honzek -- LW (FLYERS)

Even as we move into the final 10 picks of the mock first round, there are plenty of solid options, ranging from conservative "swing for contact" potential picks to a couple "swing for the fences" with risks attached.

I considered London Knights (OHL) defenseman Oliver Bonk. He's got all the makings of a future NHL top-five blueliner. Ultimately, I decided that it was a little too conservative of a pick -- even having selected a center with the seventh overall pick and the pool of viable first-round defensemen starting to get thin. Brynäs defenseman Theo Lindstein is also bit too conservative in this spot although he already has 44 games of SHL experience by the age of 18.

On the opposite end, I was tempted to roll the dice and try for a home run with Russian winger Daniil But. There was ultimately just a little too much guesswork and projection involved on a player for whom all but Russia-based scouts (Ken Hoodikoff in the Flyers' case) have mostly had to rely on video over the last year.

With Russia banned by the IIHF from all major internationalI tournament is including the U18s and WJC, I've never seen But play even a partial game. All I've seen is a 17-minute highlight package on YouTube. The clips are impressive for the towering (6-foot-5) wingers ability to move past defenders and his hands but, by their very nature, the clips are handpicked and lacking in hockey game context.

For different reasons, I also was not fully comfortable in this slot with some players who are "hot" names on other lists: Andrew Cristall, Reilly Heidt, Gavin Brindley (Fantilli's linemate at Michigan), Eduard Sale and several others.

I think two-way Swedish center David Edstrom would be a viable pick for the Flyers at 22nd overall. I'd also be totally fine with the Flyers selecting versatile and "high-compete" Sherbrooke (QMJHL) forward Ethan Gauthier, and not just because he's the son of Flyers alum defenseman Denis Gauthier.

Ultimately, though, I think the ceiling of Slovakian winger/center Honzek is too intruiging and the risk tolerance level is acceptable after he missed six weeks of action last season due to a skate cut and needed some time to get his timing and confidence back after he returned.

Honzek is a big-framed player (6-foot-3 1/4, 195 pounds) who is a slick playmaker (keep in mind that the Flyers have added several shoot-first players to the system in recent years) with demonstrated above-average hockey sense. He's still working toward greater game-in and game-out consistency but he's not wildly inconsistent, either. All in all, when healthy, Honzek had an encouraging debut season in the Western Hockey League. I'm not concerned that he's a late birthday (Nov. 12) player born in 2004. Is there really a significant difference between that and someone born in January or February 2005?

I didn't set out to take a second Slovakian player to go along with Dvorsky's selection at 7th. It just worked out that way.

23rd overall: Daniil But -- RW/LW (New York Rangers)

As a team that is considered a current contender in the Eastern Conference and has recently brought a few of their top draftees to the NHL in short order (with uneven results thus far) the Rangers can exercise some patience here. While the Flyers absolutely cannot afford first-round misses amid a rebuild, the Rangers have a little more leeway to take a swing for the fences.

Some of But's rankings are rather conservative (28 to 32 range) due to his Russian nationality and scarce direct scouting. Some also wonder if the 6-foot-5, 205-pound teenager is "too big" for his own good.

However, even the highlight clips show off that he's someone with surprising agility -- But is not gawky and is clearly very athletic -- as well as very good hands. But is said to be raw in various ways but there is home run potential if he hits the mark in his development path.

There are some absolute believers, too. Recrutes ranked the player 10th overall and quotes an NHL scout who ranked the hulking Russian winger 7th overall on his personal list and another who even evoked the name of Evgeni Malkin for the player's ceiling in an ideal "puts everything together" scenario.

To be the NHL organization selecting But would require a lot of risk tolerance because of how much projection is involved. I think the Rangers might be just that team unless some other club takes the home run swing earlier. For what it's worth, although Button ranks But at number 30 on his final "Craig's List", he tabs the Rangers taking But at 23rd overall in his mock Draft scenario.

24th overall: Gavin Brindley -- RW (Nashville Predators)

Although I don't necessarily think he'd be the ideal fit for the Flyers with the 22nd pick, at some point there will be a team that steps up on Brindley (as well as the others I mentioned as being a little riskier than I felt comfortable with at this stage of Philly's rebuild).

Brindley doesn't project to be a scorer of the Cole Caufield caliber, but the 5-foot-8, 168-pound winger thrived offensively once he was put on the same line with Fantilli. Brindley has very good feet, creativity with the puck, a strong hockey IQ (so much so that he played at the WJC for Team USA at 18), previous USNTDP and USHL (Tri-City Storm) credentials while preparing for collegiate hockey. Brindley is a very entertaining player to watch and has a competitive streak about him that's reminiscent of various pint-sized players who go on to become NHL regulars. He's mentally tough with a nonstop motor.

Even so, apart from tearing it up offensively with Fantilli on his line, Brindley was a solid but not a prolific point-getter at previous levels. Before riding shotgun to Fantilli, Brindley's freshman season at Michigan -- keeping in mind that his ice time and offensive opportunities were on a lower plane, too -- saw him start out with 10 points (1g, 9a) in the season's first 21 games.

As stated previously with other players, I'm not bothered by Brindley being a 2004 late birthday play (Oct. 5). My concern is what his NHL fit will be -- even with all the other things he has going for him -- if he does not turn out to be a top-six forward and power play regular.

Nashville has historically been a factory for astute drafting and development of defensemen; especially ones with plus skating, puck-moving and/or offense and strong two-way awareness. So I considered some of the remaining D men, with someone such as Tanner Molendyk (Saskatoon Blades, WHL) being in the mold of the somewhat under-the-radar defensemen the Predators seem to find and develop after others pass them by. However, the Preds pick twice in a row in the second round at 46th and 47th overall, and I think that's the sweet spot for some of the less publicly mentioned D.

25th overall: David Edstrom -- C (St Louis Blues)

Picture Flyers center/winger Noah Cates with a bit more playmaking ability and a bigger frame and you'll have a decent sketch of the traits that make Edstrom (Frölunda HC, SHL) ranked in conceivable first-round range by the likes of Button (23rd overall), Recrutes (14th overall), McKeen's (31st) and McKenzie (37th).

Ala Mark Stone or a young Cates, Edstrom has some work to do on his skating but scores highly where hockey smarts and positional awareness are concerned. He is usually around the puck, and rarely caught on the wrong side. The player has good size and underrated hands, too.

26th overall: Eduard Sale -- LW (San Jose Sharks)

Last summer, Sale was widely considered a near lock to be a top-10 pick in 2023. This season, his stock sank like a stone in many projections although he remains in the middle of the first round in a few final rankings (most notably, The Hockey News at 15th). He's played pro hockey at the top level the last two years in his native Czechia (Czech Republic) and has been a national team fixture.

Sale has sublime natural tools: excellent stickhandler and passer, above-average skating, decent goal scoring potential with good hands, a very high-level ability to anticipate the play offensively, and the reasonable projection of filling out his 6-foot-2 frame to be capable of using size to his advantage at the NHL level. Nonetheless, Sale's serial inconsistency this past season and worry that his game is less than the sum of the parts has made him a red-flag candidate for many clubs.

In some ratings, Sale (pronounced Sha-lay as an English approximation) got clobbered in the competitiveness and character categories, which can be enough to put a player in a "don't draft" status. I don't think it's so severe however that Sale falls out of the first round. At some point, the natural tools and offensive ceiling become too high to bypass as names fall off the board. This seems about the right range, whether or not San Jose is the actual drafting club.

27th overall: Ethan Gauthier -- C/LW (Colorado Avalanche)

A tenacious bulldog of a young player with the potential to be effective in various spots around an NHL lineup, Gauthier also has a nice passing touch and finish around the net. Gauthier is another Draft candidate who was hampered by a shoulder issue this past season but he gritted it out and never lost any of his warrior mentality: in terms of the character and competitiveness metrics, Gauthier earns extensive praise. The incoming Drummondville forward is not blessed with anything close to his defenseman dad's height and weight, but isn't small, either.

Gauthier is very much a "process player" who gets his nose dirty and creates space for linemates. Playing for the Sherbrooke Phoenix this past season, Gauthier often played on the same line as high-scoring Montreal Canadiens prospect Joshua Roy. He showed the hockey sense and skill to keep up offensively (30 goals, 39 assists in 66 games) but his primary contributions were in areas that didn't necessarily show up on the scoresheet. Currently he projects as a Swiss army knife type of top-nine player who can be deployed in various situations.

28th overall: Andrew Cristall -- LW (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Cristall has always been a big point producer and the 2022-23 season was no exception as he racked up 95 points (39 goals, 54 assists) in 52 games played. He has elite playmaking skills, is a very good stickhandler and anticipates the play quite well. Primarily due to his point production, he's ranked 12th by The Hockey News and in the middle of the first round by various websites.

However, there are several red flags: First and foremost is the dreaded combination of an undersized player(5-foot-9, 170 pounds) also receiving below-average skating grades. It's very similar to why Bobby Brink fell to the Flyers in the 2nd round in 2019 despite having first-line caliber puck skills and superior ice vision. Unlike the high-skill Benson, who is an excellent two-way player at the WHL level but may need time to adapt organically to the pace and physical demands of defensive play at the NHL level, Cristall's defensive play is considered more concerning in some rankings.

Lastly, while no ranking should be taken as gospel, the fact that Cristall gets lower rankings from the highest-profile raters such as McKenzie (27th) and Button (35th) as well as the deeply knowledgeable Chris Peters (24th) compared to raters who have him in the top half of the first round or even just outside the top 10, gives some insight into the differing criteria that get applied. The lowest rating was by Grant McCagg's Recrutes (#46) but that outlier at the opposite end of the spectrum.

Nonetheless, Cristall is a player who is probably best suited to establishing chemistry and putting up points when he's got other offensively gifted players around him. He'd have that in Toronto. An alternate captain for the WHL's Kelowna Rockets and Team Canada's U18 squad, Cristall is a smart and diligent hockey player. He just has some significant potential limitations to work toward overcoming.

29th overall: Oliver Bonk -- D (St. Louis Blues)

As stated in the Flyers' section at the 22nd overall pick, OHL defenseman Bonk is a rather conservative pick. He's projected to play in the NHL and could achieve number 4 status eventually on a depth chart, but is more safely projectable as a defensively reliable player who holds down a regular spot in a top 5. The Canadian-born son of former NHL forward Radek Bonk, the younger Bonk is a solid-framed right-handed defenseman with good feet and consistent competitiveness. He's defensively reliable and is not devoid of puck skills.

Long-term, there are questions over whether Bonk is skilled enough to become an all-situations defenseman at the NHL level or more of defensive D, shot-blocker with some bite and solid skating. Swedish defenseman Theo Lindstein, who shoots left, is another player in this basica mold if the Blues hold onto all three of their first-round picks and target a blueliner at 29th.

30th overall: Bradly Nadeau -- LW (Carolina Hurricanes)

Headed for the University of Maine in 2023-24, Penticton Vees winger Nadeau tore up the BCHL (Junior A) level this past season with 45 goals and 113 points in 54 regular season games and 35 points (17 goals, 18 assists) in 17 playoff games. He is a deadly shooter from his off-wing, has above-average feet, demonstrated playmaking ability and thinks the offensive game well.

Had Nadeau performed similary in a major junior circuit, he'd almost certainly have been more widely projected in the 10-to-20 range of the Draft. Playing against lower-grade competition and being a player with a slight frame (more of a concern that his 5-foot-10 1/4 height), he is more a latter first/ early second round wildcard. Carolina is a good stylistic fit for Nadeau and can be patient throughout collegiate and potential AHL development years.

31st overall: Theo Lindstein -- D (Montreal Canadiens)

I discussed Lindstein earlier. He's already held his own in the SHL and has the makings of a reliable NHL starting defenseman with good feet and reliable (if unspectacular) breakout passing ability. Picks like these aren't "sexy" ones but appeal to many NHL scouts, especially when a team has more than one pick.

32nd overall: Reilly Heidt -- C (Vegas Golden Knights)

To close out this first round mock, I considered taking a goalie off the board for the defending Stanley Cup champions, who won with Adin Hill as their go-to goalie. This is a deep Draft for netminders with several potential future No. 1 or 1 A/B candidates. The Golden Knights are also known as a big and heavy club through much of the lineup. However, that doesn't mean that a high-skill small player couldn't find a place. With the Prince George Tigers this past season, Heidt (who turned 18 on March 25) tied for fourth in the WHL in scoring with 97 points (25 goals and a league-leading 72 assists). He's a wizard with the puck on his stick to a degree that it's tough to drop him entirely out of the first round. Heidt is not a deficient skater but also not a remarkable one. Some have questioned his grit and competitiveness but that seems to be a bad rap. He looked plenty competitive with Team Canada at the U18s, where he was not playing a primarily offensive role on a team that had the likes of Matthew Wood and Calum Ritchie.