The National Hockey League will hold its 2024 Draft Lottery on May 7. The Flyers' own pick currently defaults to the 12th overall selection of the first round but could select as high as second overall or as low as 14th.
In the Lottery, teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots in the Draft order, stand still with their default pick, or drop down a maximum of two spots.There are two drawings made: one for the first overall pick (if mathematically allowable) and one for the second overall selection.
Note: The Flyers also hold the Florida Panthers' first-round pick in 2024, which was acquired in the 2022 trade that sent Claude Giroux to Florida. This pick is not affected by the Draft Lottery but the selection spot depends on how far the Panthers advance in the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. The Panthers, after posting the NHL's fifth-best record in the regular season, recently advanced to the second round of the playoffs.
Here's a breakdown of the Flyers' odds in the Draft Lottery, by decreasing order of probability.
12th overall pick (85.7 percent odds): Unless the Flyers are chosen with one of the two lottery drawings -- or if a team among Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings or St. Louis Blues comes up in the lottery to leapfrog Philly and jump 10 spots in the Draft order -- Philly will select 12th overall in the Draft.
13th overall pick (8.9 percent odds): If the Flyers do not come up in either lottery drawing and ONE team among Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit or St. Louis earns the right to move up in the Draft, Philly will pick 13th overall.
2nd overall pick (5.1 percent odds): The Flyers cannot pick first overall with their own selection. Therefore, Philly would jump to the second overall selection if the Flyers come up in either the first or second lottery drawings.
14th overall pick (0.2 percent odds): If the Flyers do not come in either lottery drawing and TWO teams among Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit or St. Louis come up in the drawings, Philly would drop two spots from their default and would pick 14th overall.
3rd overall pick (0.1 percent odds): There is a remote chance the Flyers could pick third in the Draft. For this to happen, the Flyers would have to come up in the SECOND lottery drawing but get blocked from the second overall pick. This would only happen if the first and second picks are already locked in for other clubs after the the first drawing.
4th overall pick (0.1 percent odds): There's also a non-zero but very unlikely chance that picks 1, 2, and 3 could be locked in before the Flyers come up in the second drawing.
