The following is an in-depth preview of the upcoming playoff series between the Flyers and Canadiens: comparative team statistics, a review of each of the three games during their regular season series, and a facet-by-facet comparison of how the teams stack up on paper entering the series.
TEAM OFFENSE (Head to Head battles & puck possession)
Edge: Flyers
Goals Per-Game:
* PHI 3.29 (7th) | MTL 2.93 (19th)
5-on-5 Play:
* PHI +18 (153-135) | MTL +15 (157-142)
Faceoffs
* PHI 54.6% (1st) | MTL 50.4% (12th)
Average Shots:
* PHI 31.4 (16th) | MTL 34.1 (2nd)
The Canadiens were actually the NHL's second-best puck possession team this season, both from a Corsi (shot attempts for/against at 5-on-5) and expected goals statistical perfective. However, the team was not especially good at turning their frequent puck possession advantage into goals.The Habs ranked 19th in the NHL offensively at 2.93 goals scored per game on average.
The Flyers, whose attack is often based on getting pucks behind the defense and then quickly setting up a layered forecheck in which the F1 (first forechecker) provides initial pressure and, if the defender gets in trouble, the F2 can move up to pounce, were in the top half of the NHL in both puck-possession and expected goals differentials.
Philadelphia, however, was a better scoring team this season than the Canadiens. The depth of the Flyers attack showed in their 3.29 goals scored per game during the regular season and their 11-3 goal differential during the round robin.
The Flyers get offense from a variety of different sources in the lineup, including the blue line and timely contributions from the bottom six of the forward rotation. Thus, even if the Sean Couturier and/or Kevin Hayes lines have a quiet night offensively, the Flyers can still generate enough goals to win much of the time,
Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher (whose grit and finishing touch around the net has been a frequent thorn in the Flyers' side over the years) were Montreal's only 20-goal scorers and the only players who topped 17 goals.
However, the team has some depth in their own right. Shea Weber's howitzers from the point and high slot remain a threat. Max Domi, who played fourth-line center in the qualifying round, had a 78-point season in 2018-19. Joel Armia, who had 16 goals and 30 points in 58 games this season, has hurt the Flyers a few times in his career, and he has been a hard player for the Flyers to take off the puck.
Also keep an eye on two fast-rising youngsters in the Habs' lineup. Twenty-year-old Nick Suzuki posted a very respectable 41 points as an NHL rookie this season and he added a goal and assist for the Canadiens in the qualification round against Pittsburgh. Likewise, 20-year-old Jesperi Kotkaniemi, whom the Habs drafted third overall in 2018, broke through for a pair of goals against the Penguins and has a very high upside.
Phillip Danault's line proved troublesome to opponents both during the regular season and to Pittsburgh in the qualification series. In short, the Habs may not have the elite firepower of their teams of yore but they are not a group to be underestimated. Additionally, the Habs played a surprisingly physical brand of hockey against Pittsburgh, and the Flyers will have to be ready for that as well.
TEAM DEFENSE
Edge: Flyers
Scoring chances:
* PHI 50.91% (13th), MTL 51.44% (11th)
Corsi:
* PHI 51.02% (9th), MTL 54.43% (2nd)
High-danger chances:
* PHI 50.83% (12th), MTL 54.64% (3rd)
Montreal has good team speed, and the club likes to throw a lot of rubber at the net from a variety of different angles. It makes for an intriguing matchup against a Flyers team that allowed the fewest shots of any team in the league this season. In the round-robin, the Flyers kept some of the most dangerous lines in the NHL at bay.
The Flyers boast considerable strength down the middle, starting with Selke Trophy finalist Couturier and Hayes. Derek Grant and Nate Thompson (acquired from Montreal) were added at the trade deadline for botton six depth. Structurally, the Flyers were much better this season under Vigneault and assistant coach Mike Yeo than they have been in many years. Players bought in to back checking, wingers taking pride in weak-side coverages and maintaining puck support. Opposing odd-man rushes and open scoring looks decreased significantly as a result.
On the blueline, Barry Ashbee Trophy winner Ivan Provorov and veteran Matt Niskanen were a formidable top pairing this year, and the emergence of Travis Sanheim and Phil Myers on the second pairing this season and during the round robin rounded out a strong top-four. Veteran defensive defenseman Justin Braun, after a slow start in October, was a solid stabilizing piece on the third pairing and the penalty kill for the rest of the season. Vigneault will have the option of either keeping Braun together with Robert Hägg, as they were in 25 of the final 26 games before the NHL pause. Alternatively, he could look or more offensive push by dressing Shayne Gostisbehere in place of Hägg. After back-to-back down seasons, Gostisbehere is now healthy after arthroscopic surgeries on both knees. "Ghost" had a strong training camp and a standout performance in the final game of the round robin.
Montreal's Shea Weber seemed to benefit from the lengthy NHL pause in his own right. He was outstanding in the qualification round and played some of his best hockey since his peak days with the Nashville Predators. The Habs have a strong top-four on D in their own right.Ben Chiarot played a physical series against Pittsburgh and also chipped in nine goals during the regular season. The duo of Brett Kulak and veteran Jeff Petry (11 regular season goals, two goals in the qualifiers) proved strong in their own right. Xavier Ouellet and 22-year-old Victor Mete round out the current top six.
GOALTENDING
Edge: Even
GAA:
PHI 2.77(T-7th) | MTL 3.10 (T-19th)
Shots Against:
PHI 28.7 (1st) | MTL 31.1 (T-13th)
Expected goal differential:
PHI 50.64 (14th) | MTL 54.01% (2nd)
Carter Hart is one of the NHL's fastest-rising stars. He will turn 22 years later this week (Aug. 13). Veteran netminder Brian Elliott has ably stepped up this season when called upon. In the meantime, while former Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy winner (2014-15 season) Carey Price may not have approached his peak form on a sustained basis this season, he is still capable at any time of stealing a game or slamming the door. Price,who will turn 33 on Aug. 16, was excellent in the qualification round against the Penguins. On a career merits standpoint, it's impossible to pick against Price, who was Hart's boyhood goaltending idol as a youngster. On the flip side, Hart has shown he is not easily intimidated and can match saves with any goalie in the league.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Edge: Flyers
Power Play:
* PHI 20.8% (14th) | MTL 17.7% (22nd)
Penalty Kill:
* PHI-81.8% (11th) | MTL-78.7% (19th)
Special Teams Index:
* PHI 102.6 | MTL 96.4
Shorthanded Goals:
* PHI 8 (T-6th) | MTL 6 (T-10th)
Shorthanded Goals Against:
* PHI 6 (T-14th) | MTL 5 (T-7th)
The Flyers had a better regular season on both ends of special teams compared to the Canadiens. Philly was stellar on the penalty kill in the round robin, going 9 for 10 and frequently preventing opposing power play from even getting set up. The Flyers' strong side puck pressure, prowess on faceoffs, and denial of entry attempts were all in strong form.
On the flip side, it is worth noting that Philly went a combined 0-for-12 on the power play when meeting the Habs head-to-head in the regular season. The Flyers were also 0-for-11 on the power play during the round robin, and they were often lacking in execution as well as end results (which need not always go hand-in-hand). Additionally, while the Flyers avoided taking any penalties in their first head-to-head game against Montreal this season, the Canadiens went a combined 2-for-6 over the latter two games against the Flyers.
As such, while the overall season numbers are in the Flyers' favor on both the power play and penalty kill, the Canadiens actually got the better of the special teams battles in the head-to-head meetings. Given that the Flyers power play was one of the few areas of their game with which the team was unhappy during the round-robin, it's not a slam-dunk that the Flyers on-paper edge will carry over into control of special teams during their playoff series with Montreal.
COACHING
Edge: Even
Alain Vigneault was named a Jack Adams Award finalist this season for the fifth time in his NHL career, and has a decent chance at winning it for the second time. He has also coached two teams (the Vancouver Canucks and New York Rangers) to the Stanley Cup Finals. Vigneault has assembled one of the NHL's most experienced staffs around him, including former NHL head coaches Mike Yeo and Michel Therrien along with holdover assistants Ian Laperriere and goalie coach Kim Dillabaugh. Both Vigneault and Therrien are former Canadiens head coaches.
Claude Julien, in the fourth season of his second head coaching stint with the Habs, has continuously coached in the NHL since the 2002-03 season. He coached the Boston Bruins to the 2010-11 Stanley Cup championship over Vigneault's Canucks and made a return trip to the Cup Final in 2012-13. He, too, is a former Jack Adams Award winner (2008-09). His assistants include Kirk Muller (formerly the Carolina Hurricanes head coach in the early 2010s), longtime NHL defenseman and AHL head coach Luke Richardson, longtime QMJHL head coach Dom Ducharme, and goalie coach Stephane Waite.
