The Flyers or Isles will win the series if...

After defeating the Montreal Canadiens, 4 games to 2, in their First Round series in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Alain Vigneault's Philadelphia Flyers have moved on to play Barry Trotz's New York Islanders. The Isles dispatched the Washington Capitals, 4 games to 1, in the First Round.

Vigneault, a five-time Jack Adams Award finalist and one-time winner to date, and four-time finalist/two-time winner Barry Trotz are two of the league's most decorated head coaches. Nevertheless, it will be the players on the ice who will shape the direction and final outcome of the series.

Here are five keys to the Flyers winning and five ways the Islanders can win.

THE FLYERS WILL WIN IF...

1. The Big Guns Start Scoring

It is remarkable that, through nine postseason games, the Flyers have a 7-2 record (3-0-0 in the round robin, 4-2 against the Canadiens) without the benefit of getting goals from the team's most important regular-season offensive performers.

Sean Couturier (5a), regular-season leading scorer Travis Konecny (3a), team captain Claude Giroux (4a) and veteran left winger James van Riemsdyk are all still looking for their respective first goal of the playoffs. That needs to change against the Islanders, a team that makes opponents fight for every foot of real estate on the ice.

They've had opportunities. Selke Trophy finalist Couturier had three or four prime scoring chances during the Montreal series but was unable to convert any of them into goals. Konecny had a breakaway in Game 6 against Montreal. Giroux has hit the post twice and unfinished chances from the slot by linemates prevented a few more assists from being added to his current totals. JVR showed signs of life in Game 6 on a new line with Giroux and Scott Laughton.

Jakub Voracek stepped up big in the Montreal series and leads the team to date with eight points (4g-4a) in eight games played. Kevin Hayes was an all-around force at times in the Montreal series and has racked up a half-dozen assists in the playoffs.

2. Closeouts Remain Strong

Above all else, it was the Flyers' ability to close out games they led after two periods -- a combination of team-wide commitment to taking away the areas between and below the dots plus outstanding goaltending from Carter Hart when an opponent was able to make a play -- that lifted the Flyers to victory in the Montreal series.

During the first round, the Flyers won games by 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-2 scores. The path to getting there wasn't ideal, as the Flyers were at a major puck possession disadvantage against the Canadiens (who were the NHL's No. 2-ranked puck possession team during the regular season). Hart often had his work cut out for him. Third periods, however, saw the Flyers significantly limit the quality of chances their opponent generated.

"I think our best periods have been in the third. I found sort of a blueprint to do a good job of shutting teams down," Vigneault said after the clincher against the Habs.

Philly actually struggled in terms of closeouts against the Islanders in head-to-head meetings during the regular season, although they excelled against most of the rest of the league.

3. Hart stays the course.

With the exception of a shaky second period in Game 5 of the Montreal series, from which he pulled himself back together after very nearly being removed from the game, 22-year-old Carter Hart has been outstanding throughout the postseason to date. Even when he was pulled late in the second period of Game 2, it was due to breakdowns around him leading to virtually unstoppable chances.

For long stretches of the postseason to date, Hart has been a brick wall. The stats say it all: 1.46 GAA, .943 save percentage, two shutouts, 6-2-0 record.

The Islanders present a different sort of challenge to Hart than the Canadiens. The Habs are a team that generates shots in high volume, throwing pucks to the net from a wide variety of angles. The Islanders shoot less but have been more opportunistic in the playoffs than the Canadiens. There are a few high-skill players atop the lineup, led by Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier, as well as several big, strong forwards who are hard to budge from near the net.

4. Flyers Establish Forechecking Presence, Limit Turnovers.

Which team led the NHL in charged giveaways during the regular season? Answer: The New York Islanders. Apply sufficient pressure and the Islanders will cough up their share of pucks and even gift some unforced errors. The Flyers' neutral zone forecheck and offensive zone pressure games were not as consistent in the Montreal series as they were during the regular season (especially in the second half) but exhibited themselves periodically.

It should be noted that the Islanders have, thus far in the playoffs, largely cleaned up their regular-season turnover issues. Among the 24 teams that have participated in postseason play, the Islanders have the seventh-fewest charged giveaways per 60 minutes. Meanwhile, the Isles' puck pressure has resulted in the team being credited with the fifth-most takeaways per 60 minutes (7.16) of all teams in the postseason.

These improvements, however, are over a much smaller sample size -- nine games -- than the team's regular-season norms. The Flyers' ability to create and capitalize on Islanders' turnovers will go a long way toward determining their success, especially at 5-on-5.

5. Blueline Stability

Matt Niskanen, who served a one-game NHL suspension for the clincher against Montreal and will return for Game 1 against the Islanders, was a rock of two-way consistency and calming presence throughout the regular season but not consistently been at his best so far in the postseason. Ditto fellow veteran Justin Braun. Both are important players for the upcoming series.

Ivan Provorov will, of course, be heavily relied upon to log the most ice time of all Flyers players and to play well on both sides of the puck. If he's off his game, it's usually a sign that the team as a whole is in trouble that game.

Shayne Gostisbehere has played two excellent games in the postseason, one uneven game and one poor game against Montreal. Vigneault has a decision to make here.

With Niskanen back, does Vigneault restore Vigneault to the pairing he had with Braun? Or does he continue to dress Robert Hagg against the Islanders; one of the NHL's biggest and most physically punishing teams?

In the meantime, taken collectively as a pairing, the duo of Travis Sanheim with Phil Myers has been the Flyers' most consistently effective.

THE ISLANDERS WILL WIN THE SERIES IF...

1. Five-on-five play

During the regular season, the Islanders actually were in the red in terms of five-on-five goal differential: with 121 goals scored and 131 allowed, New York was minus-10 at full manpower strength. The Flyers, conversely, were plus-18 at five-on-five. Philly allowed four more goals at five-on-five (135) than the Islanders did but they also scored 32 more goals (153) than New York.

Along with their significantly improved puck management as compared to the regular season -- a major contributing factor -- the Islanders have been a dominant 5-on-5 team in the playoffs so far, especially in the series against Washington. At 5-on-5, the Islanders outscored the Capitals by an 11-3 margin over the five games. For the Flyers, if one subtracts the Flyers' Game 2 debacle against the Canadiens, Philly only gave up three 5-on-5 goals over the other five games in that series. However, the Flyers also scored only scored six of their own all series.

During the regular season, the Islanders were a poor team in terms of five-on-five shot attempt differentials (ranking 29th in Corsi) and middle of the pack (15th) in in the lower half of the league in terms of high-danger scoring chance (18th) and expected goals (20th) differentials.

Even in the Washington series, the Islanders allowed more five-on-five shot attempts than they generated themselves (the Caps had a 52.74% Corsi share). That statistic, however, was meaningless in light of the Islanders enjoying better quality of opportunities (57.44% expected goal share) and, most important, a huge edge in putting those medium-to-high danger chances on the scoreboard (78.6% share).

2. Hitting early and often

The Islanders are a big, punishing team. New York led the NHL in credited hits (averaging 27.7 per 60 minutes) during the regular season and also leading all remaining teams in the playoffs (fourth among the 24 teams that started the postseason) with 35.48 per 60 minutes.

Hitting and grinding games out in the trenches may not alter the outcome of a shift or a game. However, it can have a cumulative effect over the course of a series, especially if roster attrition becomes a factor.

Much of the Islanders' aggressiveness and pugnaciousness comes from the lower half of the forward lineup. Matt Martin is one of the NHL's most aggressive hitters (and has even chipped in a pair of playoff goals). Cal Clutterbuck, who has never been noted for his scoring but has found his way onto the scoresheet with surprising frequency over the years, gets under opponents' skin with his hitting game and chirping. Leo Komarov is yet another player whom the Flyers have had run-ins with in the past.

Physicality does not entail constant hitting. The top end of the Islanders' lineup has various players who are very difficult to contain down low in the offensive zone due to their size, strength and scoring ability: Brock Nelson and Anders Lee being the two main threats.

3. Skill players matching or surpassing Flyers counterparts

Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier are both still young players at age 23 but both have already made an impact in the NHL and both have hurt the Flyers in their still relatively short careers. Beauvillier has been on fire offensively in the postseason (6g-3a) while Barzal (3g-4a) got off to a little slower start but then racked up a pair of goals and two assists across the first four games of the Washington series.

Now in his 12th NHL season, all of which have been with the Islanders, Josh Bailey leads the Islanders in playoff scoring with 10 points (2g-8a) to date. Bailey has always been a pass-first player who is more of a playmaker than a finisher. He punished Washington for six points (2g-4a) last series.

J-G Pageau, a small but shifty and versatile forward who had a career-high 24 goals for Ottawa this season before coming over to the Islanders at the trade deadline for 1st round and 2nd round picks in the 2020 Draft plus a conditional 2022 third-round pick, scored two goals for the Isles before the NHL's leaguewide pause. In the playoffs, he has four goals and six points.

Veteran forward Jordan Eberle, yet another player who has hurt the Flyers in recent years, has chipped in three playoff goals and five points.

4. Shot blocking and forcing the Flyers to the perimeter

Two traits that are common to Trotz-coached teams: everyone has to buy in to two-way play (which is also true of Vigneault's Flyers) and everyone is expected to block shots when possible.

The biggest difficulty opponents have faced against the Islanders ever since Trotz took over as head coach -- and the Isles did a spectacular one-season turnaround from being the team with the NHL's worst goals against average in 2017-18 to the best GAA in 2018-19 -- is getting pucks past Islanders' defenders and getting prime looks at the net. The Isles ranked 9th in team GAA this season.

No team in the NHL blocked more shot attempts than the Islanders did this season, averaging 16.61 per game (the Flyers ranked 28th but nonetheless held opponents to the fewest shots on goal). To play successfully against the Islanders, it takes a lot of patience and then quick decision-making when a lane opens momentarily.

5. Varlamov Makes Flyers Earn Every Goal

The Flyers had some self-made puck-luck during the Montreal series; deflections (even double deflections) and second-chance opportunites in close were the main way that they scored, apart from a snipe of a goal by Raffl in Game 4 and a rare off-angle goal that Carey Price yielded to Phil Myers in the same match.

Islanders netminder Semyon Varlamov is a fine goalie in his own right, although he hasn't won a Vezina Trophy (or Hart Trophy) in his career like Price did. The former Capitals and Avalanche goalie enjoyed a solid first campaign with the Islanders this year in the regular season. He's continued that in the postseason with a 7-2-0 record,1.67 GAA, .934 save percentage, and one shutout (21 saves in the clincher against Washington).

The team in front of Varlamov has thus far done an excellent job in allowing him to see the shots and reducing the number that get to him in the first place -- he's only seen as many as 29 shots once so far, with five games of 25 or fewer shots. In turn, Varlamov has stopped most of the ones he's had a chance to save.