Transaction Analysis: Frost enters '22-23 with something to prove

On Friday, the Flyers signed restricted free agent center Morgan Frost to a one-year, $800,000 contract. For the cap space strapped Flyers, it's a low-cost "prove it" contract for a skilled player who is in need of a breakthrough year at the NHL level. For Frost, the one-year term makes it possible to earn a significant raise next year if he delivers a productive season.

Over the final few weeks of the 2021-22 season, Frost seemed to be putting his overall game together in conjunction with frequent linemate Owen Tippett. The line was especially effective with Noah Cates on its left wing, although a struggling Joel Farabee also saw some late-season time with Frost and Tippett.
The Flyers will need the late-season promise of that line to carry over and grow in 2022-23, whether the line stays together or new head coach John Tortorella places the individual players with new linemates.
With Frost signed, the Flyers remaining RFAs are Tippett, Zack MacEwen, Wade Allison, Tanner Laczynski, Isaac Ratcliffe, Hayden Hodgson and 10.2 (c) restricted free agent Jackson Cates.
The old-fashioned eye-test suggested that, from the time Tippett arrived on the Flyers until the end of the season, the 23-year-old right winger was a difference maker in terms of the Flyers generating scoring chances. Noah Cates also seemed to make a positive impact.
Above all, in the eight games and 44-plus minutes they were a 5-on-5 line together, the trio of Cates, Frost and Tippett certainly seemed to generate both quantity and quality of puck possession.
First, for reference, here were the most commonly used Flyers combinations in 2021-22 by time played together. The top 15 are listed. Cates-Frost-Tippett were 20th in ice time together because of the late season arrivals of Tippett and Cates to the NHL club.

In terms of expected goals shares, here are the top performing lines at 5-on-5 (minimum 31 minutes played together as a line):

In terms of puck possession using Fenwick (unblocked shot attempt) shares at 5-on-5 as a proxy, this was the leaderboard:

Additionally, I wanted to see (initially specific to Tippett) how much of a difference his individual presence made. Natural Stat Trick doesn't let you combine 5-on-5 with power play unless you do it on all-situations basis. That does pull down the shares for players who regularly kill penalties, which Tippett does not do. I was more interested in expected goals for impact at 5-on-5 plus power play than all-situations shares (5-on-5 + PP + PK). However, since Cates does kill penalties and was not a significant part of the PP (although he did have a PPG), I found it interesting that he still ranked top 8 among the forwards on the team if you use the all-situations criteria.

Just based on the eye test alone from late last season, it would interesting to see a Cates-Frost-Tippett line stay together over a larger sample size come training camp and into next season. It's a very small sample size above, but perhaps was promising enough to try over a longer time period.
Moving forward, Frost's opportunities to produce will be affected by whether he earns more NHL power play time than he did last season. Frost only ranked 11th among Flyers forwards in average PP time per game with a minimum 10 games played. The Flyers were primarily concerned with Frost overhauling some of his in-game habits (moving his feet, protecting the puck, being first on pucks, winning 50-50 battles) first and then trying to add his offensive skill back into it. That was something former interim head coach Mike Yeo noted multiple times.
On the final day of the 2021-22 season, Yeo praised the significant progress that Frost had made from December to the end of April, although the offensive numbers did not start to reflect it until late in the campaign.

It may not be realistic to expect an exponential jump in actual goal/assist production under new head coach John Tortorella. However, if Frost and Tippett can pick up where they left off at the end of 2021-22 (either individually or in combination), it could be a desperately needed boost for the middle of the Flyers' lineup and generate competition for PP time.
This is going to be vital because the Flyers are tight to the salary cap. It currently seems that the team will have to try to compete via roster depth.With the likes of Farabee (cervical disc replacement surgery) and Bobby Brink (hip issue) currently sidelined due to injury and Oskar Lindblom having been bought out for salary cap space, the Flyers will need at least a couple players from the 2022 offseason list of restricted free agents to step up from the get-go next season. Frost and Tippett in particular loom as important players in dire need of a breakout campaign in 2022-23.