Transaction Analysis: Tippett Aims to Turn Promise into Production

On Friday, the Flyers announced the re-signing of restricted free agent right wing Owen Tippett to a two-year contract at a $1.5 million average annual value (AAV). This is a case of paying for potential rather than previous production.

After the Flyers acquired Tippett from the Florida Panthers in the March 19, 2022, trade that brought about the end of the Claude Giroux era, the new acquisition lacked nothing for being in the middle of scoring chances. Tippett displayed a shoot-first mentality, a quick release on a heavy shot along with above-average skating on a 6-foot-1, 207-pound frame. The bottom-line stats didn't really show it. He posted a modest four goals and seven points in 21 games as a Flyer.
Overall, including the 42 games he played with Florida before the trade, Tippett produced 10 goals and 21 points in 63 games played in 2021-22. Selected 10th overall by Florida in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, the now 23-year-old Tippett has 18 goals and 40 points in 118 NHL games played to date.
Nevertheless, TIppett remains a high-upside young NHL player, as does his frequent 2021-22 late-season linemate Morgan Frost. Teaming up with young two-way winger Noah Cates late last season, the trio stood out both by the eye-test and by analytics.
The combination, which played 44 minutes together as an intact line over eight games, produced the best unblocked shot attempt differential (58.5 percent share) and the highest expected goal share (70 percent) of ANY combination of three forwards the Flyers put together for at least a combined 30 minutes. The next best Fenwick share was the line of Giroux, Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny (57.7 percent) across 184 minutes and 19 games. The team's next-best expected goals share was the trio off Max Willman, Frost and Gerry Mayhew (63.3 percent) across 49 minutes and nine games together.
It was a small sample size together for the Cates, Frost and Tippett trio. Their rate of producing 4.73 expected goals per 60 minutes (leaps and bounds the top rate of creating high-quality scoring chances of any Flyers line in 2021-22) is not likely to be sustainable. Nonetheless, it was enough time together to merit an extended look under new head coach John Tortorella and new forwards coach Rocky Thompson.
While it was only a single game, the performance of the Cates-Frost-Tippett line at the Wells Fargo Center in an April 24 matinee against the Pittsburgh Penguins was one that, in and of itself, merited a longer look moving forward. Matched up most of the game against Sidney Crosby's line, the Flyers' trio did more than hold its own. It downright dominated on that day, combining for three goals and 14 shots on goal as an intact trio.
Also notable: While Tippett had his most notable chemistry with Frost as his center, TIppett also showed some offensive promise when he played on combinations centered by Kevin Hayes. Due to Sean Couturier's season-ending back surgery, Tippett has not yet skated a shift with the former Selke Trophy winner in the middle.
The story of Tippett's NHL career so far was largely the same in Florida as it has been in Philadelphia: Outstanding tools, ample scoring chances relative to his ice time but modest numbers to show for it. He scored at a high rate during his junior hockey career and got on a few torrid hot streaks at the American Hockey League but he has yet to put it together and start scoring in bunches in the NHL. His career shooting percentage to date in the NHL is 8.0%. He's a better shooter than that.
At times both in Florida and thus far in Philadelphia, Tippett has been involved in a disproportionate share of "all-but-the-finish" scoring chances. Below is video from one such play: a point-blank opportunity for Tippett in the aforementioned April 24 game against the Penguins. Fortunately, this one does at least end up as one of Tippett's three assists as a Flyer. Frost tapped in the rebound.
There are many other examples of plays where Tippett had a prime scoring chance staring him in the face but no goal resulted. He had two such opportunities including a breakaway a 6-3 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on March 25, three prime chances including another two breakaways against the Rangers on April 3 (he finally scored on his fourth prime scoring chance of the game), and three high-danger looks against Buffalo on April 17. Among the 10 "expected goals" and a total of 14 shots on goal, only one ended up in the cash register.
Among the four goals that Tippett did score as a Flyer, the common thread is that he ho time to try to be too fine on any of them. His first Flyers goal, scored against the Rangers, came on a broken play in transition. An attempted pass by Tippett was blocked but went right back to him. Tippett fired immediately and scored.
Tippett's second goal, scored against Columbus on April 7, came on a play where he fired off a quick snap shot from the left circle. The puck was on -- and then off -- the winger's stick in a flash. No aiming for a spot, no over-shooting, and no being too fancy.
A tally against Buffalo on April 16 came as a reward for driving toward the net. Tippett pounced on a loose puck in the slot and immediately let go of a low backhander into the cage.
Finally, in the third period of the 2021-22 season's last game, Tippett scored the type of goal the Flyers will be looking to see much more often both from the player and from the team as a whole.
With the Flyers training by one goal, there was a right circle faceoff in the Ottawa Senators' zone. Frost won the draw cleanly to Ivan Provorov at the right point. With Tippett setting up shop over in the weak-side circle, Provorov quickly rotated the puck cross-ice. Tippett then immediately unleashed a one-timer. The puck found its way upstairs into the net on the blocker side.
Tippett has the potential of developing into a player who can score from a variety of distances and by using his feet to hustle up chances. The Flyers, who were a goal-starved team for far too much of the 2021-22 season and had the NHL's bottom-ranked power power, need more of that promise to turn into production.