2021 NHL Draft Lottery Preview

Though it is not a competition in the purest sense and there is definitely more chance than puck luck involved, Wednesday's NHL Draft Lottery is a first opportunity for Kraken fans to feel tangible emotions about a league event's outcome.
Per expansion bylaws and draft rules, the Kraken will find out where they will pick among the first five slots of the upcoming NHL amateur entry draft. It can be as high as No. 1 and will be no lower than No. 5-all desirable spots in the minds of hockey operations executives and scouts.

Though it is not a competition in the purest sense and there is definitely more chance than puck luck involved, Wednesday's NHL Draft Lottery is a first opportunity for Kraken fans to feel tangible emotions about a league event's outcome.
Per expansion bylaws and draft rules, the Kraken will find out where they will pick among the first five slots of the upcoming NHL amateur entry draft. It can be as high as No. 1 and will be no lower than No. 5-all desirable spots in the minds of hockey operations executives and scouts.

"We're excited to find out where we are going to pick in this year's entry draft," said Ron Francis, the Seattle general manager who participated in previous lotteries when he was GM of the Carolina Hurricanes. "It's another milestone for the Kraken franchise."
Fifteen NHL teams that did not qualify for the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, plus Seattle, will be watching lottery balls bounce around during a 4 p.m. show broadcasting live from NHL Network studios. The first draw will determine which team gets the No. 1 pick in next month's amateur draft.
OK, let's take that in for a moment. Next. Month.
There are less than 50 days until the July 21 NHL Expansion Draft in which the Kraken will select one player each from 30 NHL teams. It will be rapidly followed by the NHL amateur draft July 23 (Round 1) and July 24 (Rounds 2 to 7). The Kraken roster build-out awaits.

Back to Wednesday's lottery. After the first draw, the second one will determine which NHL club picks No. 2 in the draft. Depending on which two teams "win" the lottery, 13 remaining teams will be ranked per their standings points for the 2020-21 season.
Hockey talent evaluators agree there is no consensus No. 1 pick, unlike previous years when the likes of New York Rangers' Alex Lafreniere (2020) or Toronto's Auston Matthews (2016) or Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon (2013) were clear favorites for the top selection.
"I think the higher you are to the top, the more you can control your destiny," said Francis Tuesday night. "Obviously we would like to be as high as possible after the lottery."
The Kraken, of course, have no record. By league expansion rules, Seattle will be slotted third for lottery purposes, sharing the same odds, 10.3 percent, with the third-lowest New Jersey Devils, for gaining the No. 1 overall pick on that first draw. One of two advantages compared to New Jersey: The Kraken will have the right to pick third during Rounds 2 through 7 while the Devils drop to the No. 4 slot. The other advantage will be discussed below.

If you prefer your math simple and in round numbers, Seattle basically has a one in 10 chance of the lottery balls turning up either a No. 1 or No. 2 pick. The odds drop significantly for remaining in the No. 3 slot (five percent). The most likely outcome for the Kraken is No. 4 with a 40 percent chance, followed by a 35 percent probability of landing at No. 5.
Bottom line: It is three times more likely Seattle ends up with Nos. 4 or 5. Anything better is good fortune.
The Buffalo Sabres have the best odds (16.6 percent) to get the top pick while the Anaheim Ducks are sitting (that might be a pun) at 12 percent. This year's lottery rules require that teams drop only two spots in the first round from where they finished in what we can call the upside-down standings (worst record selects first in the draft).
Hence, why the Kraken have a one in 20 chance to be third in the first round. If Buffalo or Anaheim or both don't draw a top-two lottery ball, those teams have to slot no lower than third (Sabres) or fourth (Ducks).

Here's where Seattle has the additional advantage compared to New Jersey. The Kraken can only drop to No. 5 while New Jersey holds the same 10-percent odds to garner a No. 1 or No. 2 pick, they have zero chance at picking third and consequently could end up either fourth, fifth or sixth.
For anyone wondering, Vegas dropped to sixth in the 2017 NHL Draft, when the former rule was a team could drop three spots in the first round.
Fun facts to impress the draftniks in your life or surrounding your television at 4 p.m. (NHL Network or NBC Sports Network):
One nuance before this particular Kraken hockey party gets started: The Arizona Coyotes have a 3.1 percent of winning the lottery. But Arizona is called for either No. 1 or No. 2, there will be a re-draw because the Coyotes forfeited their 2021 first-round choice for violating the NHL's combine testing policy during the 2019 season.
Don't miss our exclusive Kraken livestream at 5 p.m. to cover all of the lottery results and take a look ahead at the 2021 amateur draft. Check back here or via Kraken social channels for link.