Detailing the Draft

Later this month, the Kraken Draft, pres. by Verizon, heads to Nashville who will play host city for the event for the first time since 2003. Twenty years later, that year's draft class provides insight into how the picks panned out over the longer term and how it connects to the 2023 NHL Draft. Here's our primer to get you prepared and even pick up some info to impress your hockey friends, of which there are many more after the Kraken's postseason success.

The Long Game

The 2003 Draft is a good place to start this primer. It displays both the value of a first-round pick but throws no shade on later rounds. The No. 1 overall pick that June featured the unusual move of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who selected a goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury, and one who would be a key part of winning Stanley Cups in the years ahead joining teammates Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as surefire Hockey Hall of Famers.

The 2003 first round featured a number of selected players still going strong and making their history related to Cup wins and potential Hall of Fame inductions: Eric Staal (No. 2 and a regular with Eastern Conference champion Florida), Ryan Suter (No. 7, faced the Kraken in the second round of this spring's postseason), Jeff Carter (No. 11), and Corey Perry (No. 28).

There's one more name both notable and encouraging: Defenseman Brent Burns, who's known for offense and just finished his 19th season. He was selected 20th overall by Minnesota, playing there for seven seasons, then San Jose for 11 years before manning the blue line and pushing into the offensive attack this season with Carolina. The No. 20 spot is encouraging because that is the Kraken's position in the draft order when the first round unfolds on June 28.

Beyond the first round, every draft year has head-turning examples of lower-round picks who have turned in careers worthy of a first-round status in any do-over exercise. The 2003 list includes Boston star center and all-time great Patrice Bergeron (No. 45), all-star defenseman Shea Weber (picked by Nashville at No. 49). Dallas forward Joe Pavelski, a seventh-rounder who scored four goals in Game 1 of the playoffs showdown with Seattle as just one example of his long-lasting scoring prowess.

Impress Your Hockey Friends, Part 1

The Kraken's hockey operations group no doubt knows that every draft pick counts and can turn up a contributor at the NHL level. A couple of executives might be even more keenly aware: Kraken director of player development Jeff Tambellini was selected 27th overall by Los Angeles and played 272 NHL games while Coachella Firebirds director of hockey operations Troy Bodie was picked 278th overall in what was then a nine-round draft. Bodie appeared in 159 NHL games.

How to Watch, Listen, Absorb

The officially named Upper Deck NHL Draft starts at 4 p.m. Pacific June 28 from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. The first round will be completed that night while Rounds 2 through 7 will take place June 29 starting at 8 a.m. Pacific with a much quicker flow of announced picks.

Fans can watch the first round on ESPN and/or stream on ESPN+. Even better, watch with other Kraken fans at 32 Bar & Grill and enter to win a freshly plated Kraken jersey of our first round pick! Kraken followers can listen on KJR-950. Another option: Check out our Draft Central to follow our live blog for all rounds. The second through seventh rounds will air on NHL Network, ESPN+, and KJR-950.

Depth of this Draft

Kraken GM Ron Francis says this summer's draft class is one of the best in years, something scouts have been trumpeting about the 2005 birth-year group for a couple of seasons when the draft class was beginning juniors play as 16-year-olds.

"We've been told about how exciting the 2005s (their birth year) are for a while now," another NHL general manager told ESPN's, Emily Kaplan. "It's why a lot of clubs are looking to hold on to their first-round picks this year. Sounds like you can even get first-round talent in the second round, too, and those picks may be stronger than first-round picks [in 2024]."

Dan Marr, the NHL's VP of Central Scouting, is a long-time expert on evaluating individual players and comparing draft classes. He is high on this year's group: "There are 50 to 60 really good prospects. After that, it does start to level off."

That's good news for Francis and his staff. The Kraken have their first-round pick at 20th overall, then three in the second round: Their own choice at No. 52, plus No. 50 (Jets trade involving Mason Appleton) and No. 57 (Toronto trade involving Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell).

Why Kraken Fans Can Feel Especially Good about 2023 Draft Depth

Seattle has been part of just two drafts but already is considered among the top third among all NHL teams. In the last two months, the Kraken have signed entry-level pro contracts with all four of their 2022 second-rounders: forwards Jagger Firkus, Jani Nyman (just signed this week), and David Goyette, plus goaltender Niklas Kokko. Third-rounder and defenseman Ty Nelson has also been signed and, of course, first-rounder Shane Wright. The 2021 group is mostly signed too, including Finnish defenseman Ville Ottavainen this spring.

All the contracts point to a vote of confidence for hockey operations selections and the players (many of whom will suit up for American Hockey League affiliate Coachella Valley next season). Approaching a draft widely noted for depth is another promising sign for building the Kraken organization - and, not a stretch, providing young players who step up to the NHL roster when injuries demand more bodies who play effectively in Kraken coach Dave Hakstol's system.

Ten Picks for Seattle

Along with the four picks in the first two rounds, the Kraken have six more picks, or three more than the normal seven: 84th overall, 116th, 148th, 168th, 180th, and 212th.

Impress Your Friends, Part 2

Along with knowing the aforementioned Brent Burns was the 20th pick 20 years ago, there are two other formidable NHLers who were picked in the same spots in 2003 as the Kraken have this month: goaltender Corey Crawford (second round, 57th overall), a two-time Stanley Cup winner with Chicago and Lee Stempniak (fifth round, 148th), a right-wing who appeared in 911 NHL regular season and another 28 postseason contests from 2005 through 2019.

Who is Eligible for the Draft?

There is a major difference between the NHL Draft when compared to the NFL or NBA. Hockey front offices are drafting players who turn 18 before Sept. 15 this year. The football draft is selecting players in their early 20s while the NBA does a couple of handfuls of teens ready for the NBA but mostly is working with a talent pool of athletes two to four years older than the typical NHL draft choices.

Younger prospects translate to more years of development, often with draft choices still playing with their juniors, NCAA, or European teams in the season or two after being drafted.

The bottom line: The Kraken and NHL foes will be picking predominantly 18-year-olds. At that young age, NHL GMs and scouts are evaluating players much more on their longer-term potential to be NHLers rather than past performance. While a handful or two of the 2023 NHL draft class will be NHL-ready this season, most players require more development before debuting in the world's best hockey league. The general rule of thumb is forwards are ready fastest followed by defensemen and, finally, goaltenders. But there are always exceptions.

For North American prospects, eligible players need have turned 18 by Sept. 15 this year and not be age 20 by Dec. 31. European players can be drafted at any age if they are at least 18 by Sept. 15. Some players are not selected in their draft-eligible 18-year-old birth year. Kraken 2021 second-rounder, Coachella Valley star, and promising defenseman Ryker Evans is one example. The "over-age" players can be eligible for their 19-year-old birth year with the same provisions between Sept. 15 and Dec. 31. If a prospect is not drafted by age 20, the athlete becomes an unrestricted free agent who can sign with any NHL team.

How Do the Kraken Prepare?

The Kraken amateur scouting meetings in early June established a list of 300-some prospects, all ranked in order of preference. In January each season, the Kraken scouts meet to determine their working list of prospects ahead of the June final list, often making sure in the second half of seasons to cross-check evaluations of their scouting colleagues.

Francis and Robert Kron, the team's director of amateur scouting, have both said publicly the list will be tweaked right up until draft night. Check back on the Kraken website and app for updates and information about the top prospects in the run-up to June 28.

Chances of Draft Picks Playing NHL Games

Kraken colleague Alison Lukan authored an explanatory article about the differences between the NFL and NBA versus the NHL Draft. It's more than worth the read.

There are many statistical models created to determine the percentages of success in the NHL draft. The simplest way to analyze it is by rounds. Some models required 100 NHL appearances to qualify as making a successful pick while others simplify it to players who make it to the NHL for even a handful of games.

The data below, presented for concept more than absolute, blends data from two decades of selections with an emphasis on players who have benefitted from the further development of NHL draft prospects. Most players require two to five years of playing more juniors, college, or American Hockey League/ECHL pro hockey to fully prepare for a continuous and successful NHL career.

Impress Your Friends, Part Three

Here are some stats sure to make your hockey pals feel you are in the know: When gauging potential NHL success for draft choices, the first round is typically divvied into segments. Picks one through five are ranked at the highest percentage, close to 100 percent to be an NHL player and approximately 45 percent to become a star. After that rarified group, the models and percentages vary enough to offer this provision: The next set of percentages are guide rails for the potential of finding NHL players in every round of the draft who play significant games in the NHL (parenthetical notes on at least making it to the NHL):

Most statistical models show about half of the players drafted each round will see some NHL action, while other hockey math projects about 29 percent will play at least 100 games. If you consider an individual draft year, 50 to 70 will play 100-plus NHL games, and 40-some of those players will surpass 300 games.

Those are truths of the NHL Draft per probabilities. The hardest truth is no one inside an NHL front office or in the blogosphere has the perfect model, even with advanced analytics emerging as a major contributor in draft rooms. Consider the undrafted Kraken star Yanni Gourde, who has won two Stanley Cups. He was never drafted. Same for playoffs rookie sensation Tye Kartye, who scored three postseason goals in his first nine NHL games this spring, filling in for 40-goal scorer Jared McCann.