Analytics with Alison: Opportunity Awaits

Earlier this week,
we looked at players
who were contributing on the scoreboard above and beyond even what was expected of them this season. But there's a flip side to that coin. What about when you're doing the right things but waiting for results to come?

You'll hear players talk about needing to "get the bounces" or how goals seem to come in bunches once you get one. That can be a real thing. Sometimes, for whatever reason, the puck isn't going in the net seemingly no matter what you do. But if the underlying behavior is there, ultimately the scoring should follow.
Once again, we can use individual shot quality (measured by individual expected goals on Evolving-Hockey.com) to see who is generating the most within their own game. Then we compared what kind of production was expected to what scoring has come to date.
Who has yet to get rewarded for offensive contributions?
Let's dig in.

1. JOONAS DONSKOI

Individual Expected Goals: 5.2
Actual Goals Scored: 0
Differential: MINUS-5.2
Joonas Donskoi may be the player that came to mind first on this subject. He's had numerous scoring chances and for whatever reason, can't find the back of the net just yet. This is especially curious since his generated quality should have yielded at least five goals by now (the sixth highest total on the team).
Donskoi is shooting the puck less this season. Per 60 minutes of play, he's down about three shot attempts and two shots on goal compared to last year. But there's not a truly significant enough decrease in any of the ways the forward has been playing.
Silver lining? While there are no goals to Donskoi's name (yet), he is producing assists at a career rate (1.6 per 60).

2. JAMIE OLEKSIAK

Individual Expected Goals: 2.87
Actual Goals: 1
Differential: Minus-1.87
Jamie Oleksiak has always been a bit of a streaky finisher. His shooting percentage has bounced up and down from highs of 13% to lesser degrees (4%) year to year. This season, he's finishing at a rate of 2.22% as compared to 7.14% last season.
The good news for Oleksiak is that his actual scoring should come closer to projected scoring sooner than later. His shot rates are among the top five of any season in his career and his playing time (19:28 per game) is holding steady compared to what he saw last year.

3. MORGAN GEEKIE

Individual Expected Goals: 4.45
Actual Goals: 3
Differential: Minus-1.45
Morgan Geekie brings an exciting turn to this conversation. He's getting the most significant opportunity of his career, is contributing offensively, and yet still shows promise to give more. While in Carolina, the center was averaging just under 10 minutes of playing time per game. This season he's closer to 13, and as a positive sign, he's upped his shot rate by three shot attempts per 60 minutes of play and he's usually getting more than half of those on goal.
Geekie's current shooting percentage of 6.58 is below league average so for a forward doing all the right things, if, once healthy, he is able to continue his pace of play, Geekie is another player whose production should catch up to expectations.

4. JADEN SCHWARTZ

Individual Expected Goals: 7.4
Actual Goals: 6
Differential: Minus-1.4
Again, when you talk about players not producing, you may presume it to be a negative, but what a time to think one of the Kraken's top line players is actually playing well enough to produce more offense.
Jaden Schwartz is, of course, currently away from the team recovering from hand surgery, but to date, even though he's created the third most points for Seattle this season, he's playing in a way that means he should have even a few more coming.
Schwartz has gotten about 45 more seconds of playing time per game in Seattle and as a result, he's upped his shooting rate by two per game and increased his overall shot quality by .2 expected goals per 60 minutes of play.

5. MARCUS JOHANSSON

Individual Expected Goals: 4.27
Actual Goals: 3
Differential: Minus-1.27
When you talk about waiting to get the bounces, much like Donskoi, Marcus Johansson is a prime candidate. He's actually shooting the puck more than he has in the last three seasons and has almost doubled the number of attempts he's getting from high-danger areas. The challenge right now seems to be a bit of bad luck. His current shooting percentage (6.98) is the lowest of his career and almost half of what it was last season.
When something is that far off from norms not just for a player but also for the league as a whole, some regression towards what is "average" means more points should come if Johansson simply keeps doing what he is doing.
All data via Evolving-Hockey.com and NaturalStatTrick.com