Analytics with Alison: Previewing Seattle at Islanders

It took a little longer than expected, but Wednesday, the Kraken are finally headed to the Island to take on All-Star Jordan Eberle's former club for the first time. It's hard to compare season records when one team (Seattle) has played seven more games than their opponent, but when we look at the underlying numbers, these are two teams with very similar behavior when it comes to what's happening on the ice.

What does each team bring to the table and what are some possible keys to success for the Kraken?
Let's dig in.

OFFENSE

Shot Volume & Quality: The Islanders shoot slightly more than the Kraken on a game-to-game basis (plus-1.1 shot attempts), but, according to Sportlogiq, it's Seattle that has the edge in overall offensive quality, earning 2.6 expected goals to New York's 2.53.
How Offense is Created: it should be no surprise that the Kraken's strongest offensive methodology relative to the rest of the league is getting chances off the forecheck. They rank 16th overall. But the Kraken will also be seeing a bit of themselves when they line up at UBS Arena. The Islanders come in 22nd in chances off the forecheck and hold slightly less offensive zone possession time than Seattle (6:09 for New York compared to 6:38 for the Kraken). Something to watch? The Islanders' other quality method of attack is looks off the rush with 5.5 per game.
Results: With all of this in consideration, both teams are running neck-and-neck in terms of quality chances per game, but it's Seattle that has the edge in the average number of goals. The Kraken have scored 2.61 goals per game (2.50 on the road) while the Islanders are next to last in the NHL with 2.38 goals per game (including 2.35 at home).

DEFENSE

Shot Volume & Quality: New York and Seattle are equally effective at preventing offensive attacks against them, both allowing just 2.8 expected goals per game. But the Islanders will let opponents shoot more, averaging 62.1 shot attempts per game to Seattle's 56.5. So, this could be a game similar to Saturday's matinee when the Kraken sent a lot of pucks to the net, but it takes longer to crack through the opponent's defense.
Preventing Opponents' Attack: These are two stout defensive teams. They are neck-and-neck in terms of preventing chances off the forecheck and shots from the slot, while Seattle allows slightly more passes to that area of the ice. The Kraken are top five in the league in preventing rush chances against - so that will be something to watch.
Results: Ultimately, each team allows the same amount of quality chances against, but more goals have gotten into the Kraken net, with Seattle allowing almost one more goal per game than the Islanders.
Goaltending: As a team, the Islanders boast the second best save percentage in the league, while Seattle has struggled. Projected starter Semyon Varlamov is performing right in line with expectations in terms of stopping what he should (.17 goals saved above expectations per game) and he has three quality starts. But Kraken projected starter Philipp Grubauer has been playing some of his best hockey of late and has five quality starts on the season and three steals, including three quality starts and two steals in the month of January alone.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Don't expect too much time that isn't played at even strength with these two teams. They both rank top six in terms of not taking penalties - so they aren't going on the penalty kill much at all. At the same time, neither team draws many calls. New York does have the edge on the PK with an eighth best percentage of 82.3 (compared to Seattle's 77%).

SEATTLE PLAYERS TO WATCH

Eberle hasn't scored a goal in 19 games, but you can expect he'll have extra motivation to net one in his former home arena. And there's no reason to doubt he can't. He still ranks second among all Kraken skaters in shot quality (11.19 expected goals) and third in points per game - in fact, he's had eight assists since his last goal.

ISLANDERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

Mathew Barzal is a fun player to watch and he's the Islanders' top line center for a reason. He is third on his team in individual shot quality and can make things happen for his teammates, ranking first in passes to the slot. He also can maintain possession like the best of them with a per game average of 1:12 of time with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone. Another center, Brock Nelson is who creates the most quality chances for the Islanders, and he's followed closely by Anders Lee, who has the best individual shot quality on the team.
Data via Sportlogiq and Evolving-Hockey.com