Analytics with Alison: Previewing Islanders at Seattle

It's been 19 days since the Kraken and Islanders last met and in that span, there's been an All-Star break followed by six games for each team. Since then, the Islanders are 2-3-1, and the Kraken are 1-5-0. So, tomorrow's matchup will bring two teams hungry to find more wins.

The last time these two met up, we looked at the matchup "
by the numbers
" so we're doing that again, this time with a focus on what may have changed and where to possibly capitalize for each organization since the Kraken took home two standings points on Feb. 2 in a 3-0 shutout victory.
Let's dig in.

OFFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: Our first shift between these two teams since their last meeting comes in the offensive category. Going into last game, it was the Islanders who were shooting more but now it's the Kraken that are generating more shot attempts and shots on target per game. In fact, according to Natural Stat Trick, the Kraken's overall percentage of shots earned has jumped up by two points in the last six games. The two teams are still more or less deadlocked when it comes to how much quality their offenses create with Seattle having the slightest advantage (plus-.1 in quality chances per game).
+ How Offense is Created: These are still two teams that find most of their offense off the forecheck, but while the Islanders were ranked 22nd in the league in forecheck chances on Feb. 2, now they come in 18th overall right behind the Kraken (2.6 chances per game). Both teams also like to push (or hold) play in the offensive zone. Seattle sits at 13th overall (6:40) in terms of offensive zone possession time. But something the Islanders already do that the Kraken want to do more of? Get chances off rebounds. New York is 14th in the league with close to two of these each game.
+ Results: Don't expect this to be a high-scoring game. Both teams average about 2.5 goals per outing, but the Kraken are the team in this matchup getting more out of the dangerous areas of late. In 5-on-5 play, Seattle has 1.4 goals per game from high-danger areas since the All-Star break, while the Islanders are getting just .67 per game.

DEFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: The Islanders are going to allow more shots, but they are going to limit the quality of those shots overall; meanwhile, the Kraken remain stingy in terms of shot volume, but they are allowing a little bit more quality against than they have been. It's worth nothing that both of these teams have seen opponents' offense increase since the All-Star break.
+ Preventing Opponents' Attack: We talked about how good New York is in terms of creating offense off of rebounds but they allow scoring chances off of rebounds, too. In fact, that and chances off the cycle are the two weaknesses for the Islanders' defense. On the other end of the ice, the Kraken are top 10 in terms of defending chances off the rush, the cycle, the forecheck, and rebounds.
+ Results: These two teams still are in lock step in terms of quality chances against with Seattle and the Islanders ranked sixth and fourth best respectively, but Seattle has tightened up on goals against. In the last matchup, New York had almost a one goal less per game lead over the Kraken and now Seattle has reduced that by almost a quarter of a goal per game.
+ Goaltending: Which brings us to goaltending. With Chris Driedger playing against Vancouver, Philipp Grubauer will likely once again face the Islanders. It was Grubauer in net on Feb 2 and not only did he backstop the team to a win, but he also earned the Kraken's first shutout in franchise history. Play in net has been stronger overall for the Kraken of late (we'll have more on that this week), so it will be interesting to see how Grubauer fares against a team he's been able to silence once already.
In the other net, Ilya Sorokin is expected to start. This is NOT the goaltender the Kraken faced in the last game, but it is the goaltender who has seen the lion's share of work for the Islanders this season and while his save percentage and goals against average are top 13 in the league, he's actually been more or less right in line in terms of saving what he's been expected to save.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

If you're two of the stingiest teams in the NHL in terms of not allowing power plays against, that's not going to change a whole lot in two weeks' time, and that holds true here. The Islanders (2nd) and Kraken (4th) are top five in the league in NOT taking penalties. It is worth noting that while the New York penalty kill unit is holding true to full season performance (82.7%), Seattle's has dropped off a bit to 75.4%. This is something to watch particularly since the Islanders have scored four power-play goals in the six games since the break.

SEATTLE PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Jordan Eberle was a player to watch going into the last Islanders matchup because what player isn't motivated to perform against a former team? Add in now that Eberle has two goals and two assists in the six games since the All-Star break and he's one of the top goal scorers for the Kraken in that time span. Who else has been producing offensively? Calle Jarnkrok has five points including three goals, and Yanni Gourde also has the same point production, albeit with no goals, but four primary assists.

ISLANDERS PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Kieffer Bellows is grabbing hold of opportunity. With Josh Bailey out due to injury, the 23-year-old is catching attention and may finally be ready for a full-time spot on the roster. On the back end, Ryan Pullock, who was just returning to the lineup after injury kept him off the ice since mid-November, has built back up to top-pair minutes. And, of course, Mathew Barzal will make his first NHL appearance in the city that was home throughout his WHL career with the Thunderbirds.
Data via Sportlogiq and NaturalStatTrick.com