Analytics with Alison: Previewing Kraken at Islanders

The Kraken are set for a Saturday matinee against Jordan Eberle's former team in the only other NHL Arena to make its debut this season: The New York Islanders' UBS Arena. Seattle is coming off its first overtime win in franchise history,
Thursday's 2-1 victory
over Pittsburgh.
Let's look at what each team brings to the table and some possible keys to success for the Kraken:

OFFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: The Islanders shoot slightly more than the Kraken on a game-to-game basis (plus-1.1 shot attempts), but, according to Sportlogiq, it's Seattle that has the edge in overall offensive quality, earning 2.6 expected goals to New York's 2.51.
+ How Offense is Created: It should be no surprise that the Kraken's strongest offensive methodology relative to the rest of the league is getting chances off the forecheck. They rank 16th overall. But the Kraken will also be seeing a bit of themselves when they lineup at UBS Arena. The Islanders come in 21st in chances off the forecheck and also hold slightly less offensive zone possession time than Seattle (6:07 for New York compared to 6:36 for the Kraken). Something to watch? The Islanders' other quality method of attack is looks off the rush with 5.5 per game.
+ Results: With all of this in consideration, both teams are running neck-and-neck in terms of quality chances per game, but it's Seattle that has the edge in goals for per game. The Kraken have scored 2.63 goals per game (2.50 on the road) while the Islanders are next to last in the NHL with 2.36 goals per game (including 2.32 at home).

DEFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: New York and Seattle are equally effective at preventing offensive attacks against them both, allowing just 2.8 expected goals per game. But the Islanders will let opponents shoot more, averaging 62.1 shot attempts per game to Seattle's 56.5.
+ Preventing Opponents' Attack: These are two stout defensive teams. They are neck-and-neck in terms of preventing chances off the forecheck and shots from the slot, while Seattle allows slightly more passes to that area of the ice. The Kraken are top five in the league in preventing rush chances against - so that will be something to watch.
+ Results: Ultimately, each team allows the same amount of quality chances against, more or less, but more goals have gotten into the Kraken net, with Seattle allowing almost one more goal per game than the Islanders.
+ Goaltending: As a team, the Islanders boast the second best save percentage in the league, while Seattle has struggled. Ilya Sorokin has been the strongest netminder in New York in terms of both overall percentage of saves and turning away more than he should based on the quality faced.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Don't expect too much time that isn't played at even strength with these two teams. They both rank top six in terms of not taking penalties - so they aren't going on the penalty kill much at all. At the same time, neither team draws many calls. New York does have the edge on the PK with an eighth best percentage of 83.

SEATTLE PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Jared McCann and Eberle lead the Kraken in overall shot quality; McCann and Yanni Gourde lead in points per game; and no one is shooting the puck more than Ryan Donato with McCann right behind him. Alex Wennberg has 66 slot passes on the season thus far.

ISLANDERS PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Mathew Barzal leads his team in points (27) and assists (18), and he's fourth overall in individual shot quality per 60 minutes of play. He also has 70 slot passes, so he can get the puck to the most dangerous areas. Oliver Wahlstrom leads in overall shot quality and shot volume per game. After Barzal, it's Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey who finish out the top three in points per game.