Analytics with Alison: Using Rebounds to Create Offensive Opportunity

So the saying goes "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again." That may not initially have been a sports-related phrase, but when it comes to hockey, it could relate to the idea of scoring goals not just on an initial shot but on the follow-up chances that come off any rebound.

"You do score pretty goals in this league," Mason Appleton said. "But you score a ton of goals (by) getting around the net, and whether its point shots with tips and screens or just cleaning up the garbage (net front) that's how you put up your three to four goals a night consistently."
As Appleton says, rebounds may not lead to "pretty" goals, but they bring a unique type of danger with them. When a puck bounces off a goaltender's stick or pads, where it goes isn't always predictable. That can be an advantage for the team that's on the attack and not for the one that's defending. Not only can you potentially catch a defense off guard, but you can create some follow-up movement that leads to a quality scoring chance.
So, are rebounds something the Kraken focus on and if so, how are they doing with them?
Let's dig in.
Corey Sznajder of
All Three Zones
just released his initial set of tracking data from this season which includes at least 10 games for each NHL team. Of the many data points he records, one of them is shots for that come off of rebounds. Here's how all 32 teams stacked up.

Tracking data and Viz Courtesy of Corey Sznajder (@ShutDownLine)
That's a pretty good showing for the Kraken, and it reinforces when Appleton stated that getting to the "dirty areas" and fighting for chances off of rebounds was "part of our game."
"I like our mentality," Dave Hakstol said. "We've got some guys like Jaden Schwartz and guys like that that are really good at getting inside, spinning off their check and finding those second pucks."
So, we know the Kraken pounce on rebound chances, how about getting results off of that? As we can see in the image below from
Hockey Viz
, there are a few pockets of the ice from which the Kraken are finishing at a rate above league average and one of those is in close to the net, presumably some of those looks are coming off rebounds.

But here's where it gets interesting. As much as the Kraken may be creating off rebounds, it's something their head coach would like to see the team do even more. That's supported by the fact that thus far this season, according to
MoneyPuck.com
, in 5-on-5 play, Seattle has seven goals off rebounds and is, in fact, getting 1.43 fewer rebound chances than expected.
"(Getting chances off rebounds) is an area that I'd like to see us get much better at," Hakstol said. "The percentages may look pretty good, but I just don't know if we're giving ourselves enough opportunity to be inside for those rebounds. By that I mean that I think we can shoot the puck more entering the zone, initially in the offensive zone. We're still turning down too many shots, in my opinion, or missing the net on some of those first initial shots. That reduces your opportunity to get inside for seconds and rebounds."
So, while Seattle is getting looks off rebounds, getting pucks into those areas - be it via a shot from the point or generating attempts elsewhere and then creating motion within the offensive zone - can improve. Hakstol wants to see his team focusing more on the "shoot first" mentality that can lead to even more retrievals, rebounds, and scoring opportunities.
And creating this kind of opportunity will be important this weekend as the Kraken square off against the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, two offensively minded groups that may give Seattle a small window of opportunity to feed off of follow-up looks net front.
"The more you can get (to the dangerous areas), the more offense there is to be had," Appleton said. "It's definitely an emphasis in our game and when you're playing a fast run and gun team like Edmonton or Toronto, there's going to be garbage in front of the net because sometimes those guys you know want to get on the offensive side of it right away... If you can get gritty around the paint… hopefully (you can) knock a couple in that way."