Analytics with Alison: Understanding Forechecking Performance

Forechecking is a word we've heard about from this Kraken team a lot. It's a big part of how the team wants to generate offense…moving the puck into the offensive zone with a strategically placed dump-in to get past defenders and then retrieving the puck in a more opportune position to create a scoring chance. It's something that Dave Hakstol wants to see his team improve.

"Over the last few games, we haven't been happy overall with our forecheck. We need to be better there," Hakstol said. "We're not a heavy team when we go in on the forecheck, so we have to do it in an effective way for us, we need to have good reads, we need to be quick. It all starts with placement of the puck putting it to a good area where we have an opportunity to forecheck."
So, we know what forechecking means to this team, and we know it when we see it. For example, here's how Seattle started the game versus Montreal. A solid forecheck right out of the gate set up a series of scoring chances in the first 40 seconds of play.

But since "forechecking" isn't officially tracked by the league, it's hard to know just how often or how well Seattle is executing its systems. But maybe there is a way to estimate how the team is performing, nonetheless.
Let's dig in.
While we can't yet turn "forechecking" into a data point, we can track the elements that Hakstol outlined that go into a forecheck. First, how often is a team dumping the puck into the offensive zone? Second, how often are they retrieving that puck after it's sent in? And third, once a dumped-in puck is retrieved, how often is the team able to generate a shot attempt or shot on goal?
It's worth noting that in its broadest sense, forechecking also refers to any system that is designed to apply pressure in the offensive zone with the intent to regain possession of the puck. So, a solid forecheck can also gain possession of any loose puck in the offensive zone even if it's not "directly" off a dump-in. While there are many different scenarios where this can happen, it can look something like this.

Understanding all these different elements of offensive zone forechecking sets us up to see how the Kraken are doing. Thanks to Sportlogiq, we know that 50.3% of Seattle's entries into the offensive zone are dump-ins. Here's how the team was able to react to those loose pucks be they off a dump-in or otherwise.

What we see is that while the Kraken don't recover a majority of the pucks they dump-in, they are excellent at turning the recoveries they do execute into scoring chances (much like the videos we saw above). That speaks to why the Kraken have worked to make a successful forecheck part of their systems and why Hakstol is intent on his team getting better at this part of the game.
With practice time at a premium, and forechecking being a high-energy on-ice exercise, so much of this work is supported with specific conversations in team meetings. The head coach knows not every forecheck can be successful, but he also wants to see his group improve.
"There's going to be times when the other teams make good plays (when we are trying to forecheck)," Hakstol said. "Off of those, you're not always going to come up with possession and get a great scoring chance. Sometimes the best you're going to do is be able to track that thing back to the NZ and get back in that area of the ice. (But forechecking) is an area we feel we need to be better in and an area that we've talked about the last couple days."