Rounding Out, Trending Up

There is near-consensus among NHL draft experts - and even scientists rarely reach pure consensus - there are five players available this summer who will be future solid pros to star performers once they suit up to play in the world's best professional hockey league.
That puts the Kraken in
promising position picking No. 4 overall
to collect a treasure of a cornerstone player in the 2022 NHL Draft July 7 and 8. Kraken center Matty Beniers' impressive 10-game NHL debut is Exhibit A.
For the remainder of the first round, picks No. 6 through 32, there are lots of opinions about which players are top 10 or will be surefire NHL players who log 100 games or more in their careers. One or more franchises at the top of the draft order might concede the presumed top five players are all fine choices, but nonetheless pick a prospect not in that quintet, possibly to fill a need but more likely because that team's scouting staff projects sky-high potential for their selected player.

There are many statistical models created to determine the percentages of success in the NHL draft. The simplest way to analyze it is by rounds. Some models required 100 NHL appearances to qualify as picking a successful pick while others simplify to players who make it to the NHL for even a handful of games.
The data below, presented for concept more than absolute, blends data from two decades of selections with emphasis on players who have benefitted from the further development of NHL draft prospects. Most players require two to five years of playing more juniors, college or American Hockey League/ECHL pro hockey to fully prepare for a continuous and successful NHL career.
The first round is typically divvied into segments, such as picks one through five, which ranked the highest percentage, close to 100 percent to be an NHL player and approximately 45 percent to become a star. After that rarified group, the models and percentages vary enough to offer this proviso: The next set of percentages are guide rails for the potential of finding NHL players in every round of the draft who play significant games in the NHL (parenthetical notes on at least making it to the NHL):
Most statistical models show about half of the players drafted each round will see some NHL action, while other hockey math projects about 29 percent will play at least 100 games. If you consider an individual draft year, 50 to 70 will play 100-plus NHL games and 40-some of those players will surpass 300 games.
Those are truths of the NHL Draft per probabilities. The hardest truth is no one inside an NHL front office or in the blogosphere has the perfect model, even with advanced analytics emerging as a major contributor in draft rooms. Consider the undrafted Kraken star Yanni Gourde, who has won two Stanley Cups. He was never drafted and same for first-ever Seattle captain Mark Giordano.
One prime factor of sizing up a draft class is how much depth is there beyond the first round. By most all accounts, this summer's draft figures to be providing solid prospects in the second, and third plus in the fourth round. That's a happy truth for the Kraken, who hold four second-round picks, a third-rounder, then three more slots in the fourth round.
"It's a deep draft," says Seattle GM Ron Francis. "There will be good talent available. We don't have a [Connor] McDavid or [Auston] Matthews, but there will be good players in all rounds. We put our list together [ranking 300 prospects though only 224 are selected] during our meetings in early June and we will tweak that until Draft Day."
The Kraken have six choices in the first 67 picks, a deep prospect pool by any measure and any year. Specifically, most experts consider this summer's depth considerably better than last July plus 2018 and 2017 over the last five years, and on par with 2019 and 2020. Francis might trade some of the picks to acquire NHL-ready players, but the value of those picks will be attractive to trade partners.
With these evaluative truths, who are the potential "treasure" players Seattle might be able to pick and see at Climate Pledge Arena in future years, provided the right seasoning and game experience?
After the fourth overall pick, the Kraken pick at Nos. 35, 49, 57 and 60. In 2015, former Carolina GM Francis himself picked star center Sebastian Aho with the 35th pick. Aho, 24, debuted by playing all 82 games of the 2016-17 NHL season and has appeared in 445 regular-season games to date plus another 48 in the playoffs.
In 2016, the St. Louis Blues picked forward Jordan Kyrou at No. 35. He notched 75 points (27 goals, 48 assists) in 74 games this year plus seven goals and two assists in 12 playoff games.
With the 49th pick in the 2016 draft, Boston selected defenseman Ryan Lindgren, who is now with the New York Rangers, playing big minutes this postseason. The next year, San Jose drafted forward Mario Ferraro at No. 49; he's played three full seasons with the Sharks (debuted 2019) and has 180 NHL appearances.
At No. 57, Toronto picked Swedish forward Carl Gundstrom in the 2016 draft. He has played parts of four seasons with the Los Angeles Kings, earning regular minutes the past two years as part of LA's rebuild and qualification for the 2022 playoffs.
In a more immediate return, Arizona selected Swiss defenseman J.J. Moser last summer. He went undrafted for three years of eligibility before getting picked 60th overall (Seattle's spot this via Calle Jarnkrok trade) by Arizona last summer. Moser, 22, fast-tracked after playing several seasons against men in his country's elite pro league). He started with 18 AHL games, then finished the year with the Coyotes, appearing in 43 games.
Back to Francis: At No. 67. In his Carolina days, he picked two NHL-tested players with ample future upside in the early third round: Kraken forward Morgan Geekie (2017, 111 regular season games and 11 playoff appearances) and forward Warren Foegele, (2014, 282 regular season games and 46 playoff appearances) now with Edmonton.
The Kraken GM is in strong position to continue his treasure hunting with Seattle, with 12 draft picks this year and another 13 next summer. Along with former Carolina colleagues now with him in Seattle (including director of amateur scouting Robert Kron, assistant GM Ricky Olczyk, amateur scout Mike Dawson and scouting adviser Tony MacDonald), Francis oversaw Hurricanes drafts from 2014 to 2017.
The group selected 12 players of 33 total players who have already logged 100 NHL games or more, with two more players just games away from the mark and sure to break through next season. That's 42 percent or 15 percent higher than the overall percentage for selecting bonafide NHL contributors.
In fact, five of those players have already surpassed 200 games, the equivalent of three-plus NHL seasons. The 14 picks break down by 10 forwards (the position that progresses fastest to the NHL), three defensemen (including Kraken D-man Haydn Fleury) and a goalie. More treasures to come, Kraken fans.