12-in-10: Readers of this column know I’ve referenced this regularly over the years. Teams that are able to amass at least 12 points in every 10-game segment are on ‘playoff pace.’ Maintaining that pace will result in 96 points after 80 games, and then teams will have a chance to add to that total in their two final games. Over the years, ninety-six points, almost without exception, is enough to secure a postseason berth. There have been plenty of examples of teams qualifying for the playoff with less than 96 points, but a lower total puts a club on shakier ground.
Due to their regulation loss last night in Columbus, the Lightning narrowly missed hitting the 12-in-10 benchmark for their first 10-game segment of the season. They finished the segment with 11 points. Missing the benchmark isn’t ideal, but a one-point ‘deficit’ isn’t an insurmountable one.
What’s interesting about the opening 10-game segment of the season — and it isn’t exclusive to just this season — is that many teams are able to reach, or get close to, 12 points after the first 10 games. In the Atlantic Division, for example, almost every club has banked at least 10 points after 10 games. The exception is Ottawa, and the Sens have only played nine games so far. They have eight points.
The challenge for the Lightning — and the other Atlantic teams — is not simply to reach 12 points after one 10-game segment. It’s to do it again. And again. And again. The ability to consistently ‘munch points,’ as Jon Cooper likes to say, is paramount to achieving regular season success and carving out a path to the playoffs.
Road Woes: The 2022-23 regular season was the first one under Cooper’s tenure (excluding his partial 2012-13 season) in which the Lightning had more road regulation losses than road wins. They went 18-22-1.
This year, the Lightning’s road woes have continued. They are winless through their first four road games, going 0-3-1. If not for Brandon Hagel’s sixth-attacker goal in the dying seconds of the October 17 game at Buffalo, they’d be 0-4-0.
Simply put, the Lightning have not played as well on the road as they have at home. They’ve committed more turnovers, made more coverage errors, ceded more possession, and been on the wrong end of too many game-changing plays.
This is an area that needs to improve. Consider how the Lightning were able to get to 11 points in the just-completed 10-game segment: they earned 10 points in six home games and just one in the four road contests. They’ve got a steady diet of road games over the next several weeks; if they want to keep up with the pack in the competitive Atlantic Division, they’ll need to start banking more road points.
