A Terrific Segment Five: Through the first half of the season, the Lightning weren’t able to put together a dominant stretch that would propel them up the standings. In their recently completed Segment Five, however, they did it.
After dropping the opening contest in Games 41-50, the Lightning went 8-1-0. Thanks to the 16 points they gained in the segment, they are now just one point off playoff pace. If the Lightning can average 12 points in each of their final three segments of the regular season, they’ll reach 95 points. Then they’ll have two final games to pad that total.
Historically, a team reaching 96 points has qualified for the playoffs. That’s why the 12-in-10 metric is a reliable one to determine playoff pace. But with so many Eastern Conference teams in contention this year, will 96 be enough?
At this juncture of the season, yes. Coming out of the All-Star Break, seven of the eight Eastern teams currently in a playoff spot are ahead of playoff pace or within two points of that pace. The Flyers, occupying third place in the Metropolitan Division, are four points off playoff pace. The eight teams below the playoff cut line all possess a lower points percentage than the Flyers.
Still, as the Lightning showed in Segment Five, one excellent stretch can drastically improve a team’s trajectory. Furthermore, a mediocre segment can have the opposite effect.
The Lightning will look to keep ‘munching points’ in Games 51-60. This segment’s schedule will be a challenging one. They begin a four-game road trip on Wednesday against the Rangers in New York. Including their two contests back home after the trip (versus Colorado and Florida), the Lightning play three first-place teams and one second-place club in their next six games.
Improved Team D: The Lightning’s move up the standings has coincided with better defensive play. This trend predates the last 10-game segment. In their past 18 games, the Lightning have gone 13-5-0. They have allowed more than three goals in only three of those 18 games (I am excluding the Jan. 2 game at Winnipeg, because the Jets scored their fourth goal into an empty net.)
Overall, the Lightning yielded 50 goals during the 18 games, good for an average of 2.78 GA/G. They come out of the All-Star Break ranking 23rd in team defense (3.28 GA/G), several spots higher than where they’d previously ranked.
Certainly, this level of tighter defense will need to be maintained. It may need to be raised to an even higher level. Jon Cooper has often stated that holding the opposition to two goals or less will give his team an excellent opportunity to gain points. With three GA, the outcome begins to hang in the balance. During those same 18 games, the Lightning have kept the opponent to two goals or less in only seven.
It’s possible that ‘three’ has become the new ‘two’ — league scoring has increased over the past few years. Also, the Lightning are better equipped than many other clubs to win games in which they allow three goals. They have the leading scorer in the league and the top power-play percentage in the NHL. As well, they’ve received offensive contributions from plenty of players other than Nikita Kucherov.
Still, they’d be well served to begin meeting Cooper’s standard more regularly in their final 32 regular season games and holding the opposition to two goals or less. That will help them in their push to make the playoffs. And if they can qualify, it will help them have success once the postseason begins.
Some Exciting Personal News: As I shared earlier today on Lightning Power Lunch and posted on X, I have written a novel!
