What we’ve seen so far from the Lightning has been mostly good. Certainly, there’s been a lot more good than not good.
Let’s start with the positives. They’ve won three of the first four. There were no ‘steals’ among their victories. In other words, they’ve deserved the wins. And even in their sloppy, mistake-filled performance on Saturday at Ottawa, they battled back from multiple deficits and only lost by a single goal.
The Lightning have placed an emphasis on being a better five-on-five team this year. Specifically, they want to allow fewer five-on-five goals than last year. Through four games, they’ve given up only five such goals. At the same time, they’ve scored 11 five-on-five goals themselves.
The trio of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Jake Guentzel have combined to produce 18 points so far this year. Kucherov has become the first player in franchise history to record seven goals through a season’s first four games. The unit of Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nick Paul has contributed four goals and 12 points.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, who missed the early part of last season due to surgery, is healthy and has looked sharp.
On the other side of the ledger is special teams play. While it’s true that the power play and penalty kill played a big role in the Lightning’s season-opening victory at Carolina, the units have taken a percentage hit in the last three games. The Lightning have failed to score a power-play goal since their opener, squandering two five-on-three chances in the process. The PK has allowed four opposition power-play goals in the past three games.
Is this a cause for concern? I don’t believe so. Special teams play can be cyclical. Look for the penalty kill to tighten up as the season progresses. Many of the same players who see PK time are back from last year’s team, which finished fifth in PK percentage. The additions include the return of Ryan McDonagh and the arrival of J.J. Moser and Zemgus Girgensons. Then there’s Vasilevskiy. There’s no reason to believe the Lightning won’t improve their PK percentage.
The power play is trickier to forecast because the Lightning are adjusting to a top unit without Steven Stamkos. But what I’ve seen so far hasn’t rung any alarm bells. The power play went 0-5 against Vancouver, primarily because the Lightning had difficulty re-entering the offensive zone after the Canucks got the puck down the ice. Versus Vegas, the Lightning received just two PP opportunities. They overlapped, leading to a lengthy five-on-three. The Lightning generated plenty of chances and looked sharp doing so. On Saturday in Ottawa, they only received three power plays, including another (shorter) five-on-three. While they were unable to convert on their three chances, there was improvement from the Vancouver game. Following every Ottawa clear, the Lightning successfully re-entered the o-zone.
Ultimately, it’s too early to declare that any of these early-season statistics reveal definitive trends. But the overall quality of the Lightning’s play has been high. That’s the biggest reason why they’ve been able to bank six out of eight points.
