Mishkin's Musings: On the Lightning's team defense and the playoff race
© Scott Audette
1. Closing out games
The Lightning have won the first two games of this three-game road trip, but, as has been the case in a number of recent contests, the road to each victory was a bumpy one. What's been happening?
Over the past several weeks, the Lightning's defensive game has not been as crisp as it was earlier in the season. There have been segments in which the Lightning have a) not managed the puck well and committed turnovers and b) had coverage issues, either off the rush or in the defensive zone. Throw in some inconsistency in penalty killing - although I thought the PK had a strong game in Ottawa last night, despite allowing a late goal during a six-on-four - and the Lightning have endured some wobbly moments.
As a result, their team goals against average has crept up. In their last 20 games, the Lightning have yielded three or more goals 13 times. Another notable stat is the shot allowed number. While shots don't always tell the whole story of how a game is unfolding, a high shot allowed number can inform us that a team is spending a lot of time in its own zone. In those previous 20 games, the Lightning have been outshot in 15. Compare those numbers to their first 41 games, in which the Lightning were outshot only 15 times.
There is good news. There have been other segments in the last two contests - and in other recent games - during which the Lightning have dominated play. Tenacious forechecking and puck pursuit have fueled their attack, but so has solid team defense.
Ultimately, it comes down to consistency. Many of these defensive issues are self-inflicted and, as the stats show, weren't as prevalent during the first half of the season. There is no reason to believe that the Lightning can't tighten things up for longer stretches. Doing it consistently will be a priority for them during the final month and a half of the regular season.
2. Keeping an eye on clinching
Obviously, another goal during the final 21 regular season games will be to clinch a playoff berth. Typically, getting to 96 points will secure a post-season berth. With 85 points already in the bank, the Lightning have put themselves in an excellent position. Still, Jon Cooper and company aren't going to take anything for granted until they've clinched a spot.
3. Bolts still face key Atlantic matchups
What about Boston and Toronto, the two teams right on the Lightning's tail? The Lightning, Bruins and Leafs are poised to grab the top three slots in the Atlantic Division, but in what order? The results from the remaining head-to-head matchups will play a role in answering that question. The Bruins and Maple Leafs conclude their season series on Saturday in Toronto. But the Lightning still have five games left against those teams - three versus Boston and two against Toronto. Four of those five games will be played at Amalie Arena.
4. Florida Panthers surging towards Wild Card spot
For the past couple of months, it's only been Metropolitan Division teams that have battled for the two Eastern Conference Wildcard spots. The bottom five Atlantic Division teams trailed all eight Metro clubs, so many assumed that both Wildcards would come from the Metropolitan Division. That may still happen, but the Florida Panthers are making a hard charge up the standings. Following their come-from-behind win last night over Washington, the Panthers leapfrogged the fading New York Rangers and moved out of the bottom five in the Eastern Conference. The Panthers have gone 8-3-0 in their last 11 games and, like the Lightning, have a home-heavy schedule the rest of the way. Their victory over the Caps began a stretch in which they play 11 of 12 at home (the one road game during that time is a short trip to Tampa on March 6).
Climbing into a Wildcard position won't be easy.As the Lightning discovered last year in the closing weeks, it's very difficult to gain ground on teams that are also battling for a playoff spot.To that end, there are still three more teams between Florida and the final Wildcard spot.On the plus side, however, the Panthers have games in hand on every other team in the mix.
