New York Islanders fantasy projections for 2022-23

As part of NHL.com's 32 in 32 series, the fantasy hockey staff identifies relevant players from the New York Islanders. For more coverage, visit NHL.com/Fantasy and subscribe for free to the "NHL Fantasy on Ice" podcast.

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NOTES:These fantasy projections (for 82-game season), a collaborative effort by Pete Jensen and Anna Dua, have been quantified based on factors including but not limited to past performance in the regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs, projected line combinations, power-play usage, team goalie situations, injury history or concern, sleeper upside, anticipated regression or bounce-back candidacy, age, contract status and overall upside for this season. The below totals are safe estimates and do not necessarily indicate each player's ceiling or floor and should be used as a basis for decision-making in all fantasy leagues. Players are listed below in order of NHL.com top 250 rank.
Islanders 32 in 32: [Season preview | 3 Questions | Top prospects]
Ilya Sorokin, G -- He was second in the NHL in save percentage (.925; minimum 10 games) behind Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers (.935) and shutouts (seven) behind Jacob Markstrom of the Calgary Flames (nine) last season despite the New York Islanders missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs. With a similar defensive system and potentially more goal support under new coach Lane Lambert (replaced Barry Trotz), Sorokin should be considered a top-five fantasy goalie option and remains part of an elite tandem with Semyon Varlamov (potential 2023 unrestricted free agent).
NHL.com win projection for Sorokin: 29
Noah Dobson, D-- He was arguably the biggest breakout defenseman last season with NHL career highs in points (51; tied for 15th at position), goals (13; tied for ninth at position), assists (38), power-play points (22; tied for eighth at position) and shots on goal (190). Dobson, who led all Islanders skaters in power-play points and shots on goal, could take another step if they have a higher-scoring offense (2.79 goals per game; tied for 22nd in NHL) under Lambert and should be considered a fringe top 20 fantasy defenseman.
NHL.com point projection for Dobson: 55

Mathew Barzal, C -- The Islanders' No. 1 center enters his contract season (potential 2023 restricted free agent) with fantasy bounce-back appeal following the coaching change. Barzal had an NHL career-high 85 points as a rookie in 2017-18 but no more than 62 in any of the past four seasons under Trotz. He led the Islanders in assists (44 in 73 games) last season and could benefit from playing more often on a line with right wing Oliver Wahlstrom, who has their fourth-most goals per 60 minutes (0.80, minimum 10 games) over the past two seasons combined and led them in shots on goal per 60 last season (10.7, minimum 41 games) despite playing mostly on the third line.
NHL.com point projection for Barzal: 70
Brock Nelson, C -- He led the Islanders in goals (37) and power-play goals (11), was tied with Barzal for their points lead (NHL career-best 59) and had NHL career highs in each of those categories last season. Nelson found chemistry with left wing Anders Lee last season but could reach a higher gear if his other frequent linemate, wing Anthony Beauvillier, breaks out under Lambert. Nelson is a potential fantasy bargain who could return value again with an average draft position in the later rounds.
NHL.com point projection for Nelson: 61
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Other NYI players to consider in fantasy: Semyon Varlamov, G; Oliver Wahlstrom, RW; Anders Lee, LW; Anthony Beauvillier, LW/RW; Alexander Romanov, D
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