3 Keys: Lightning at Maple Leafs, Game 2 of Eastern 1st Round

(A3) Lightning at (A2) Maple Leafs
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 2
Tampa Bay leads best-of-7 series 1-0
7 p.m. ET; ESPN, CBC, SN, TVAS, BSSUN

TORONTO --Victor Hedman will be a game-time decision for the Tampa Bay Lightning in their quest to take a two-game series lead against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 2 of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference First Round at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday.
The Lightning defenseman sustained an undisclosed injury in the first period of Tampa Bay's 7-3 victory in Game 1 on Tuesday and did not return for the final two periods. The 32-year-old did take part in Tampa Bay's optional morning skate Thursday, an optimistic sign his return could be sooner than later.
The Lightning defense already is depleted with Erik Cernak out after taking an illegal check to the head from Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting in the second period of Game 1. Bunting will serve the first of a three-game suspension for his actions and will not be eligible to return until Game 5, if necessary.
RELATED: [Complete Maple Leafs vs. Lightning series coverage]
Former Maple Leafs defenseman Zach Bogosian is expected to enter the lineup in place of Cernak. If Hedman can't play, Haydn Fleury is the leading candidate to replace him.
It's just another example of the next-man-up philosophy that has helped Tampa Bay reach three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning the title in 2020 and 2021.
"We're a resilient team and we play for one another," defenseman Mikhail Sergachev said. "When one guy goes down, everybody steps up to help.
"It's not just one guy who has to step up. It's the whole team from coaches on down. We've been able to do that and we're going to do it again."
The Lightning could get some help up front from Tanner Jeannot, the physical forward who missed the final four games of the regular season and Game 1 of this series with a lower-body injury.
"There's lots of indication," coach Jon Cooper said when asked if there were signs Jeannot might play.
Teams that lead 2-0 in a best-of-7 Stanley Cup Playoff series have gone on to win the series 86.4 percent of the time (342-54). Last season, teams who took a 2-0 lead went 5-2.
With Bunting out of the lineup, rookie forward Matthew Knies will make his NHL playoff debut after having an assist in three regular-season games.
"We've talked a little bit about it," center Ryan O'Reilly said of Knies. "It's his first playoff experience and he just has to trust himself. He's a phenomenal player and just has to lean on that."
Here are three keys for Game 2:

Start on time

Sound familiar? It should. In our three keys for Game 1, this is what we said about the Lightning: "For Tampa Bay, not only is it an opportunity to get their collective games on track, it also puts pressure on the home team."
Sure enough, the Lightning dumped the puck into the Maple Leafs' end right from the opening face-off, grinded out valuable zone time and made Toronto pay with a goal by forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare just 78 seconds in to go up 1-0. Tampa Bay didn't trail for the rest of the game.
How much does the first goal matter? Consider this: Teams scoring the opening goal through the first three days of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs are 11-1. Certainly sounds like a recipe for success.

Maple Leafs must wear down depleted Lightning defense

With Cernak out and Hedman questionable, Toronto needs to put more pressure on Tampa Bay's defensemen in an effort to grind them down. The Maple Leafs weren't nearly good enough on the forecheck or physical enough against the Lightning defensemen in Game 1, something they're looking to change.
"I think, even against a group that's entirely healthy, you want to grind against them," Toronto defenseman Morgan Rielly said.
Sooner or later, that wear and tear takes its toll.

Samsonov needs to be regular-season Samsonov

The Toronto goalie used an expletive to describe his play in Game 1, when he allowed six goals on 29 shots. The 26-year-old showed an outstanding ability to bounce back after losses during the regular season, when he posted a 27-10-5 record. He'll have to be much better in Game 2, or the Maple Leafs' season will be in jeopardy.
Indeed, if the series goes back to Tampa with Toronto down 2-0 in the series, the Maple Leafs would have to win four of the following five games, three of them at Amalie Arena. That would be difficult, to say the least.

Lightning projected lineup

Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Ross Colton -- Nicholas Paul -- Tanner Jeannot
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Nick Perbix
Mikhail Sergachev -- Darren Raddysh
Ian Cole -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliott
Scratched: Haydn Fleury
Injured: Erik Cernak (upper body), Michael Eyssimont (upper body)
Maple Leafs projected lineup
Calle Jarnkrok -- Auston Matthews -- Mitchell Marner
Alex Kerfoot -- John Tavares -- William Nylander
Matthew Knies -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Noel Acciari
Zach Aston-Reese -- David Kampf -- Sam Lafferty
Jake McCabe -- TJ Brodie
Mark Giordano -- Justin Holl
Morgan Rielly -- Luke Schenn
Ilya Samsonov
Joseph Woll
Scratched: Erik Gustafsson, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, Wayne Simmonds, Erik Kallgren
Injured: Jake Muzzin (neck), Victor Mete (upper body), Nicholas Robertson (shoulder), Carl Dahlstrom (shoulder), Matt Murray (head)
Suspended: Michael Bunting

Status report

Eyssimont, a forward, will miss Game 2 after being injured in Game 1. ... Jarnkrok will take Bunting's spot on Toronto's top line alongside Matthews and Marner. Kerfoot steps in alongside Tavares and Nylander on the second line for O'Reilly, who drops down to third-line center between Acciari and Knies.