Ovechkin is eighth in NHL history with 706 goals. At age 35, the Washington Capitals forward is 188 behind Gretzky.
"Earlier I thought Ovechkin doesn't have any chances to break Gretzky's goal record," Jagr said Monday in Moscow, where he is attending the 70th anniversary celebration of Avangard Omsk, the Kontinental Hockey League team he played for from 2008-11. "It was six years ago. But Alex has changed and became a better and more effective hockey player than he was in [his] youth. I think he works harder now. He'll be able to [break Gretzky's record] if he can stay healthy and keep working as hard as now."
Ovechkin scored 48 goals in 68 games last season and tied Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak for the NHL lead. He became the eighth NHL player with 700 goals when he scored against the New Jersey Devils on Feb. 22.
Ovechkin trails Gretzky, Gordie Howe (801 goals), Jagr (766), Brett Hull (741), Marcel Dionne (731), Phil Esposito (717) and Mike Gartner (708).
Jagr, who played 24 seasons in the NHL, scored his last goal in the League on Nov. 9, 2017, with the Calgary Flames, and played his last NHL game Dec. 31, 2017.
But Jagr, at age 48, still plays in his native Czech Republic with Kladno, where he also is the majority owner. In 2018-19 he scored 13 points (10 goals, three assists) in 11 games during qualification play to help Kladno earn promotion to the Czech Extraliga, the country's top professional league. Last season he scored 29 points (15 goals, 14 assists) in 38 games, but Kladno was relegated back to the second division.
Jagr hasn't played this season, but he's not ready to retire.
"This year is very different from others," he said. "We don't know what is waiting for us tomorrow and it takes a lot of energy. This year I wasn't practicing as hard as in previous years but I still want to play this season. I think it might happen in the playoffs. I want to be a player who helps his team to win. I'm not this player now but I want to help [Kladno] to return to the top division.
"I can't say how long I want to keep playing. The game is getting more difficult. I think I kind of lost the drive when I wanted to prove that I'm still capable of getting better. I feel a lack of motivation to keep playing, though this year is definitely not the last in my career."
Jagr is even looking ahead to next season already. Kladno is scheduled to play an outdoor game Dec. 10, 2021, at Spindleruv Mlyn, a ski resort in the Czech Republic.
"This year we had to play in the [outdoor] game, but it was [postponed, from December of 2020]," Jagr said. "So I can't retire now. I promised that I'll play that game."
NHL.com/ru independent correspondent Pavel Lysenkov contributed to this report