Carlson is on pace for 111 assists in 82 games, which would be the most in a season by an NHL player since Wayne Gretzky had 122 with the Los Angeles Kings in 1990-91. Carlson is tied with Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl for the NHL lead with nine primary assists this season. He is on pace for 67 primary assists, which would be nine more than McDavid had last season. It would be a stretch to predict a defenseman leading the NHL in primary assists, but because Carlson had 35 last season, it's plausible he will at least surpass Brent Burns of the San Jose Sharks, who led NHL defensemen last season with 39. It also doesn't hurt his case that he's the point man on the Capitals top power play, feeding one-timer passes to left wing Alex Ovechkin.
Carlson, who led the Capitals with 33 power-play points (three goals, 30 assists) last season when they had the 12th-best man-advantage in the NHL (20.8 percent), has six this season, putting him on pace to finish with 44; Washington is tied for eighth with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights on the power play (25.0 percent). To put that in perspective, consider that Burns led NHL defensemen with 83 points (16 goals, 67 assists) in 82 games last season but had 28 on the power play.
So although Carlson likely won't have Gretzky-like numbers this season, it's realistic to expect him to finish with at least 14 goals, 40 primary assists and 70 total assists and end up with close to 85 points, which would top his NHL career high of 70 set in 2018-19.