Carlson, Josi, Hedman in race for Norris Trophy, numbers say

NHL.com goes Behind the Numbers during the season pause to examine the front-runners for each NHL award using underlying statistics. This week we look at three potential finalists for the Norris Trophy, which is voted on to recognize the most proficient defenseman of the regular season, based on performance, team point share and other statistical factors.

John Carlson, Washington Capitals

Carlson leads all defensemen with 75 points (15 goals, 60 assists) and 49 even-strength points in 69 games and is second at the position in power-play points (26) behind Torey Krug of the Boston Bruins (28). He is tied for 12th in points among all players with New York Rangers center Mika Zibanejad. Carlson's 60 assists lead all defensemen and are fourth among all players behind forwards Leon Drasaitl (67) and Connor McDavid (63) of the Edmonton Oilers and Artemi Panarin (63) of the Rangers. As for advanced stats, Carlson leads all defensemen in points per 60 minutes (1.80) among those to play at least 60 games. The Norris Trophy is not just about a defenseman's ability to score; defensive responsibility is considered. Carlson averages 1:30 of shorthanded time on ice per game on the sixth-best penalty kill in the NHL (82.6 percent). He is also effective at 5-on-5 with an SAT of plus-62, which is impressive considering he averages 17:22 per game in those situations, second-highest on the Capitals behind defenseman Dmitry Orlov (18:33).

Roman Josi, Nashville Predators

Josi is second to Carlson in scoring among defensemen, with 65 points (16 goals, 49 assists) in 69 games. He's tied for second at the position in goals (16) with Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues, four behind Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Josi is second to Carlson at the position in even-strength points (42) and fifth in power-play points (23) behind Krug (28), Carlson (26), Neal Pionk of the Winnipeg Jets and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks (25 each). He averages 2:00 of shorthanded time on ice per game, 30 seconds more than Carlson. And Josi helps to drive puck possession at 5-on-5, where his plus-185 SAT ranks 14th at the position. He is second behind Carlson in points per 60 (1.75) among defensemen to play at least 60 games, which adds to his case.

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

Hedman is third among defensemen behind Carlson and Josi with 55 points (11 goals, 44 assists) in 66 games. His plus-27 rating is fourth at the position behind Ryan Graves (plus-40) of the Colorado Avalanche and Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton (plus-30 each) of the Carolina Hurricanes. Hedman has been effective on the man-advantage with 22 power-play points (tied with Pietrangelo for sixth among defensemen) and at even strength, where his 33 points rank fifth at the position. He is averaging 2:22 of shorthanded time on ice per game, more than Carlson and Josi, and Hedman's average of 1.38 points per 60 is sixth among defensemen to play at least 60 games. Hedman also contributes to team puck possession; his plus-126 SAT is tied for 25th at the position with Brayden McNabb of the Vegas Golden Knights.

The winner is ...

So out of the three choices, who has the best statistical case to win the Norris Trophy? Hedman deserves strong consideration for being well-rounded, and Josi has taken his offense to a new level since Nashville traded P.K. Subban to the New Jersey Devils in June -- he has NHL career highs this season in goals, assists and points -- but it's too hard to overlook Carlson's output. Since the inception of the statistic in the 2009-10 season, his points-per-60 rate (1.80) is tied for second best (Mark Giordano of the Calgary Flames, 2018-19) for a defenseman behind Brent Burns, who averaged 2.09 for the San Jose Sharks in 2013-14 (minimum 60 games). The high production, his contribution to one of the NHL's best penalty kills, and his effectiveness at driving possession at 5-on-5 put Carlson over the top.