Maple Leafs' playoff success could hinge on special teams, possession

The Coaches Room is a regular feature throughout the 2021-22 season by former NHL coaches and assistants who will turn their critical gaze to the game and explain it through the lens of a teacher. Rocky Thompson and Dave Barr will take turns providing insight.
In this edition, Thompson, an assistant with the Edmonton Oilers in 2014-15 and an associate with the San Jose Sharks in 2020-21, takes a closer look at the Toronto Maple Leafs and their mission to win a Stanley Cup Playoff series for the first time since 2004.

Where are the Toronto Maple Leafs on their journey to be more of an impact team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
I know that element, as it relates to one of the most storied franchises in the NHL, is close to the hearts of many fans, especially in Canada. So it's worth an examination to gauge what progress, if any, has taken place after the Maple Leafs finished first in the Scotia North Division last season but failed to get past the Stanley Cup First Round.
The early evidence is good. The Maple Leafs are 24-9-3 after 36 games and play in the difficult Atlantic Division with the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins. They're fifth in the NHL with a .708 points percentage and 7-2-1 in their past 10 games.
Special teams are having a big impact. Toronto's power play continues to be strong this season at 29.7 percent, second in the NHL behind the Edmonton Oilers (30.3). Penalty killing has really made progress, tied with the Bruins for seventh (83.2 percent) and much better than the 78.5 percent that was tied with the Canadiens for 23rd last season. I see pressure and an eagerness to jump to force the opposition to make good plays to beat the pressure. And it helps that one of your best penalty killers is your goalie. Jack Campbell is having an outstanding season (19-5-3, 2.13 goals-against average, .931 save percentage, four shutouts).

There is a definite influence on the penalty-kill structure from assistant Dean Chynoweth, who helped the Carolina Hurricanes in this area in the three seasons he was there (2018-21).
When I turn my eye to the 5-on-5 game, I want to see if there are any changes or improvements from last season.
It looks to me that things are similar. The Maple Leafs are using the same defensive-zone coverage, they are good at activating their defense and they are a focused, puck-possession team that would rather keep the puck and regroup rather than dump it in and forecheck.
As I dig in here, one of the statistics I like to reference when evaluating a team's structure is expected goals for and expected goals against per 60 minutes. This analytic helps level the playing field (with and without the puck) and indicates, with all things equal over a given amount of time, what gets generated and what's allowed.
From the statistics I monitor, I have Toronto at 3.03 expected goals for and 2.47 expected goals against this season, the third-best differential in the NHL behind Florida (3.27 for, 2.53 against) and Boston (2.69 for, 2.02 against). Last season, its numbers were 2.85 expected goals for and 2.28 expected goals against, so generating a little less but giving up a little less as well. The goals-against numbers were and are middle-of-the-pack.
There's nothing here that's bad by any stretch of the imagination but I find it misleading, the talk that they've improved 5-on-5 defensively.
So what are the issues?
I love their structure up the ice; I'm a possession-based guy and understand that a forecheck is not the be-all and end-all. Toronto has the personnel to be a successful possession team and it has leaders like forwards Mitchell Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander who lately have much more of a concerted work ethic without the puck. It's a real positive with all that back pressure and puck pursuit, which will limit odd-man rushes, create more turnovers, and fuel their possession game even more.
The Maple Leafs do a good job protecting their young defensemen (Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Travis Dermott, who are not known to be defensive players) with their defensive-zone coverage being a zone coverage rather than man-on-man, thus creating a more layered coverage. It's a good choice because helps limit isolated man-on-man situations that favor bigger, stronger and more experienced players. As a byproduct of this coverage, their defensemen are able to stay closer to the net, where they defend that area better than forwards.
I see defenseman Morgan Rielly having a strong season and TJ Brodie has been good. I'd like to see more from Toronto's two tallest defensemen, Justin Holl (6-foot-4) and Jake Muzzin (6-3), especially given that the Maple Leafs aren't blessed with many shutdown players.

Even with the issues they face, I don't believe the Maple Leafs are going to have any problem qualifying for the playoffs. It's at that point of the season where the rubber's going to hit the road, or not.
The power play, a strength during the regular season when you can sometimes just skill it through, is very capable but this can be more challenging in the postseason when you're going in against the same team for up to seven straight games. It's something they've run into before, where the power play has let them down at crunch time.
When the playoffs start, it becomes more tight checking and big leads are hard to come by. How Toronto will play when it has that one-goal lead is what draws my interest.
I currently feel the Maple Leafs could be more responsible, particularly with their defense. Their offensive-zone activation could be more focused and situational, less risky. In the neutral zone, their defensemen tend to be on the wall and step forward, almost pinching into the opposition's forwards and leaving them vulnerable to odd-man rushes.
By deactivating the defensemen slightly while maintaining a good gap and absorbing pressure, as opposed to meeting it head-on, would limit the potential for 2-on-1s against, plus denying possession entries more effectively. Puck management from the forwards late in shifts will yield positive results as well, when to attack, when to manage the puck.
I'm not suggesting sitting back, but rather a more cerebral attack both with and without the puck. When it gets to crunch time and leading a game, I'd like to see Toronto force the opposition to come through more numbers. The Lightning had to learn this the hard way before winning and, like them, I feel the Maple Leafs are really close.
Campbell's rise into a Vezina Trophy contender, given to the best goalie in the NHL, is a great sign and is going to help the Maple Leafs, but it can't all be on him to close games. He'll need support, and that's with Toronto's possession game and the execution of its structure defending. When you reach the playoffs, every team remaining will be as good as the Maple Leafs, so the challenge will be substantial, no matter who they face in the Atlantic Division.