Avalanche season preview: Seek consistency behind MacKinnon

The 2020-21 NHL season is scheduled to begin Jan. 13. With training camps underway, NHL.com is taking a look at the three keys, the inside scoop on roster questions, and the projected lines for each of the 31 teams. Today, the Colorado Avalanche, who will play in the West Division.

Coach: Jared Bednar (fifth season)
Last season: 42-20-8 (.657 points percentage); second place in Western Conference, lost to Dallas Stars in Western Conference Second Round

3 KEYS

1. Choosing a No. 1 goalie
Philipp Grubauer was supposed to fill that role when the Avalanche acquired him in a trade from the Washington Capitals on June 22, 2018, but because of injuries and inconsistent play, that hasn't happened.
Grubauer was 18-12-4 with a 2.63 goals-against average and .916 save percentage in 36 games last season but sustained two lower-body injuries, including one against the Stars in Game 1 of the best-of-7 series, and was outplayed by rookie Pavel Francouz, who was 21-7-4 with a 2.41 GAA and .923 save percentage.
With Grubauer entering the final season of a three-year contract, if he starts out slow, it's possible Colorado could give more starts to Francouz, who signed a two-year contract Feb. 21, 2020.
2. Consistent scoring behind MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon scored 93 points (35 goals, 58 assists) in 69 games, but after him, there was a severe drop-off in scoring. Defenseman Cale Makar finished second on Colorado with 50 points (12 goals, 38 assists), and forward Andre Burakovsky was third with an NHL career-high 45 points (20 goals, 25 assists).
Granted, the Avalanche were at times riddled with injuries, and they will no doubt benefit from a healthy Mikko Rantanen, who plays on the top line with MacKinnon but was limited to 42 games last season. Add in Gabriel Landeskog, Brandon Saad, Nazem Kadri, and Valeri Nichushkin, and the Avalanche should have the depth to take pressure off MacKinnon.

3. Maintaining consistency
The Avalanche started last season 7-0-1 before going 6-8-1 in their next 15 games. They then went 8-0-1 in their next nine games before a 4-7-3 stretch in the following 14 games. With a shortened 56-game schedule, the Avalanche can't afford to be inconsistent if they want to reach the heights they're expected to.

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ROSTER RUNDOWN

Making the cut
Bowen Byram, who was selected with the No. 4 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, scored 52 points (14 goals, 38 assists) in 50 games for Vancouver of the Western Hockey League last season and was part of Colorado's roster for the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, gaining valuable experience despite not playing in any games. Bednar said on Sunday the plan is to get the 19-year-old defenseman in some games and if he does a good job will stay in the lineup.
Most intriguing addition
Devon Toews showcased his potential last season when he scored 28 points (six goals, 22 assists) in 68 regular-season games and 10 points (two goals, eight assists) in 22 postseason games for the New York Islanders. But when the Avalanche acquired him in a trade Oct. 12, 2020, they created a logjam with their defensemen.
Colorado is returning five of its top six defensemen (Nikita Zadorov was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks for Saad), and with Byram and Conor Timmins on the cusp, it's tough to tell who the odd man out could be. However, by signing a four-year contract with the Avalanche on Oct. 27, it seems as though Toews will get every opportunity to make his mark.

Biggest potential surprise
Martin Kaut earned a late call-up with the Avalanche, playing in nine of their final 12 regular-season games. The 21-year-old right wing, who was selected with the No. 16 pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, got some valuable playing time this season in eight games with MODO of the Swedish Hockey League, but he will have to earn a spot in training camp with Colorado deep at forward.
Ready to break through
Ryan Graves will be overshadowed again playing on the top defense pair with Makar, who won the Calder Trophy voted as the NHL rookie of the year last season, but that doesn't mean he should be. In his first full NHL season, the 25-year-old scored 26 points (nine goals, 17 assists) in 69 games and led the NHL with a plus-40 rating. In addition to his steady two-way game, Graves (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) will be asked to shoulder more of the physical load this season in the absence of Zadorov, who led the Avalanche in hits in each of the previous four seasons.
Fantasy sleeper
Saad (LW/RW; average draft position: 162.8) is one of the best fantasy sleeper options in the NHL for the Avalanche, who have three players ranked among NHL.com's fantasy top 20 in MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar. Saad, who has scored at least 20 goals in five of his past seven seasons, would also be a great fit on the second line with Kadri and Burakovsky, and could score the most goals of any player who changed teams this offseason. -- Pete Jensen
Projected lineup
Gabriel Landeskog -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Mikko Rantanen
Brandon Saad -- Nazem Kadri -- Andre Burakovsky
J.T. Compher -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Valeri Nichushkin
Matt Calvert -- Tyson Jost -- Joonas Donskoi
Ryan Graves -- Cale Makar
Samuel Girard -- Devon Toews
Bowen Byram -- Erik Johnson
Philipp Grubauer
Pavel Francouz