State Your Case: McDavid vs. Lemieux

Connor McDavid is having his best statistical season and one of the best in recent memory.

The Edmonton Oilers forward has 83 points (37 goals, 46 assists) in 45 games this season, a pace of 150 points.
Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov had 128 points (41 goals, 87 assists) in 82 games in 2018-19, the most points by an NHL player since the 2000-01 season.
Kucherov`s mark seems destined to fall easily, which means the next benchmark is the 161 points (69 goals, 92 assists) Mario Lemieux of the Pittsburgh Penguins scored in 1995-96.
Wayne Gretzky scored more than 161 points nine times, including the NHL single-season record of 215 points (52 goals, 163 assists) in 1985-86. Lemieux scored 168 points (70 goals, 98 assists) in 1987-88 and 199 points (85 goals, 114 assists) in 1988-89.
Those numbers seem untouchable.
Could 161 be in play? Can McDavid get there beginning when the Oilers visit the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday (SN-W, ROOT-NW, ESPN+, SN NOW)?
That's the question before NHL.com senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke and staff writer Mike Morreale in this installment of State Your Case.
Morreale:It seems each season we're either witnessing McDavid set a record or in a chase for one. So, here we are again. Only this time, I'm betting the Oilers captain has it in him to best a point total we haven't seen in almost 30 years -- Mario Lemieux's 161 points in 1996-96. McDavid's NHL career-high of 123 points (44 goals, 79 assists) in 80 games was set last season and he's more than halfway there already with 83 points (37 goals, 46 assists). Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov was the closest to Lemieux with 128 points in 2018-19, when he averaged 1.56 points-per game. McDavid is averaging 1.84 this season. He's the fastest player to 80 points in a season (44 games) since Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr and Ron Francis in 1995-96. Sure, he needs several big games during the second half of the season but, honestly, at the pace he's going right now, I'm not going to be the one betting against him.

Roarke:Look, nobody wants to bet against McDavid when it comes to offensive achievements. He is the most talented player in the NHL today and one of the most talented to ever play the game. Era-adjusted he may well be as good as Lemieux. But, that doesn't mean he can get to 166 points or more this season. He is already off the pace, so he is going to have to pick up his already considerable output. Since 2000-2001, only one player with more than 10 appearances in a season has topped the 1.84 points per game McDavid is averaging right now. That was McDavid when he scored 1.88 points per game across 56 games two seasons ago. The reason nobody has done it because it is really hard to stay that consistent as the season grinds on and the wear and tear starts to take its toll. I believe that McDavid will get close, but I think 166 is a bridge to far.
Morreale: The odds might not seem in McDavid's favor, but we are talking about the four-time winner of the Art Ross Trophy for most points in a season. He needs eight goals to establish his NHL career high in a season (44 in 2021-22) and he'll get his chances because a player of his skill, his dominance, will find a way. McDavid's at his best when the going gets tough. It helps that the Oilers rank first in the League in power-play opportunities (163) and power-play percentage (31.3), and McDavid is the beneficiary with the man-advantage working with Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman on the top unit. He leads the NHL in power-play goals (16). McDavid's also second in the NHL in primary assists, so he'll continue to create space for linemates or attack the net himself with regularity ... it's what makes him great. The two-time Hart Trophy winner as the most valuable player in the NHL has proven he has what it takes to break Lemieux's mark. You kind of get the feeling he's on a mission to do it, too.
Roarke: Mike is 100 percent right in part of his argument. McDavid is special. The stats and the trophies bear that out, but what we are talking about is not special, we are talking about near impossible. I am not sure the stats bear out that McDavid will be stronger down the stretch. In each of the past three seasons in which he has scored more than 100 points, his scoring rate has slowed in the second half of the season. Last season, McDavid had 52 points (19 goals, 33 assists) in his first 31 games, a scoring rate of 1.68 points per game. In the final 49 games, he scored 71 points (25 goals, 46 assists) for a points-per-game average of 1.45. It was a similar story in 2018 when he scored 116 points. He scored at a rate of 1.53 (58 points in 38 games) through Jan. 1 and then at 1.45 (58 points in 40 games) for the rest of the season. But this also applies to Lemieux himself. In the 161-point season, he scored 86 points (34 goals, 52 assists) in 32 games before Jan. 1, an astounding rate of 2.69 points. In the final 38 games he played in that season, he scored 75 points (35 goals, 40 assists) for a rate of 1.97 points per game. The NHL is generally not conducive to a strong finishing kick because of the strain of a long season and the tightening of defenses for playoff contenders in the final months of the season. I am looking forward to McDavid putting his all into this chase, but I will be surprised if he bucks history and finds a way to score 161 or more points.