Mailbag: Penguins need spark, Central Division outlook
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
Is the onus on Jim Rutherford, Mike Sullivan or Sidney Crosby to spark the Pittsburgh Penguins? -- @briantodd34
All of the above. And more.
Hindsight being what it is, it's not surprising the Penguins have struggled, at least in comparison to what they did the past two seasons. There is a price to pay for playing 213 games, including 49 Stanley Cup Playoff games, in a 20-month span (October 2015 through June 2017). Most teams pay the price after winning the Stanley Cup once. The Penguins avoided their first potential Stanley Cup hangover, but doing it twice has proven much more difficult. I'm not suggesting they deserve a pass, but their issues with defense, energy level at times and secondary scoring from younger players should offer perspective on how challenging it is to stay on top. That they did it two years in a row is, frankly, amazing. We can't forget that because they haven't looked like the same team that defeated the Nashville Predators 2-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final at Bridgestone Arena.
So the onus is on Rutherford, the general manager, to infuse some energy into the group by way of an impactful trade. He made two trades Tuesday to acquire goalie Michael Leighton and defenseman Jamie Oleksiak. They're not impactful moves, but they add to the Penguins' organizational depth. It's on Sullivan, the coach, to try to squeeze more out of the group. It's on Crosby, the captain, to lead on the ice and in the room. It's on goalie Matt Murray to steal a win or two. It's on forwards Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary to find their legs again. They've been too quiet in too many games. It's on center Evgeni Malkin to have one of his put-the-team-on-his-back hot streaks. It's on defenseman Kris Letang to find his equilibrium this season and get back to being the player he can be.
The burden now is to do it despite all the hockey they've played in a short period of time. Let's not forget that when we analyze the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. Let's also not forget that they are the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions and they're known for finding a way to win.
The Central Division is stacked again. Do you think the Dallas Stars, Chicago Blackhawks and Minnesota Wild get some traction? Do the St. Louis Blues continue to fall after a hot start? Are the Winnipeg Jets a contender? -- @DenverWildFan
I picked the Blues to win the division in the preseason. I won't go away from that yet, but the Nashville Predators are obviously in their way and looking good with the potential to improve when defenseman Ryan Ellis, who has been out all season, returns from a lower-body injury. I did not think the Jets would be good enough to get into the playoffs, but provided goalie Connor Hellebuyck holds up, it is looking good for them. They have the firepower and a strong top-six defense group. They're more disciplined than they have been in prior seasons and for the most part have gotten the goaltending a team needs to be a playoff contender.
The Blackhawks have won five in a row, including 5-1 at the Jets and 4-1 against the Wild. Nick Schmaltz and Patrick Kane are playing off each other the way Artemi Panarin, now with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and Kane used to. It's a small snippet. We need to see more. We've also seen snippets of Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad finding their game. These are good signs for the Blackhawks, who continue to get excellent goaltending from Corey Crawford. He is 9-0-2 since Nov. 12. It would help if the Blackhawks could get their power play going. It is 2-for-39 in the past 10 games.
The Stars and Wild have the tools to make a run, but I'm not sold on either being a legit contender. It's possible neither one makes the playoffs. The Predators, Blues and Jets aren't going away, and the Blackhawks are improving. The Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings are clearly the class of the Pacific Division at this point, but at least one more team from the division will get in and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks climb into contention. Don't sleep on the San Jose Sharks or the Calgary Flames either. The point here is even though the Central Division is loaded, the Stars, Wild and, to a degree, the Blackhawks have not yet distinguished themselves from the middle-tier teams in the Pacific Division.
How underrated is Jason Zucker? Players like Nino Niederreiter and Charlie Coyle seem to get all the attention with regards to the Minnesota Wild, but Zucker is on pace for his third 20-plus goal season. -- @TylerDonnellyTD
We can't measure these things, but I think it's fair to say Zucker, a Wild forward, is underrated on a national level, but not in Minnesota. He's well known as a reliable, two-way forward who might have 30-goal potential and consistently makes whatever line he plays on better. He has become one of the Wild's best top-six forwards. I disagree that Coyle and Niederreiter get more attention than Zucker. Maybe you feel that way because Coyle and Niederreiter each was a first-round pick in the 2010 NHL Draft and thus expectations have been higher on them, but Zucker, on a local level, is appreciated. The Wild need to do more in the playoffs for Zucker to get more of a national following.
What should Vegas do approaching the trade deadline? They can sell, but should they? It's not a deep draft, do you think they go for the playoffs? -- @TheGracefulGoon
It's hard to give a definitive answer because you're asking me to predict where the Golden Knights will be approaching the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline, which is Feb. 26.
If they stay near the top of the Pacific Division, I'd argue the Golden Knights would have to try to bolster their roster for a playoff push and, eventually, for the playoffs. That might not be the best decision for them in the long term, but they can't throw away the chance to get into the playoffs in their first year. Playoff hockey provides another avenue for Vegas to continue to grow the game in a new market and build a fanbase. The Golden Knights would be wrong to sacrifice that to acquire some draft picks or prospects that may or may not turn into big pieces down the road.
If the Golden Knights fall apart, the solution is easy: trade who you can trade and get what you can get. That potentially benefits the team in the long run, but it makes March and April somewhat inconsequential.
I've seen enough from the Golden Knights to believe a playoff position is theirs to lose. They're legit. They don't have high-end talent, but they have depth, good goaltending and excellent coaching, and they work like crazy. I don't see them falling apart. GM George McPhee might be aggressive at the deadline.
As of right now, what teams do you predict will make the playoffs from the Metropolitan Division at season's end? -- @Ant_Moccia27
Blue Jackets, Penguins, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.
I'm omitting the New York Islanders because I worry about their goaltending holding up. Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss have a combined .894 save percentage. Halak has a .905 save percentage; Greiss has an .883 after allowing five goals on 21 shots in a 6-3 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday. The deeper the season goes, the more teams will tighten up their defense and the tougher it is going to be to score. If the Islanders dip too far from their 3.50 goals per game (second in the NHL) and their goaltending doesn't improve, it could be a double whammy that leaves them on the outside.
Jordan Oesterle, Connor Murphy, Gustav Forsling and Jan Rutta are playing well. Would the Blackhawks move Michal Kempny or Cody Franson? If including one or two young defensemen and maybe one or two young forwards and one contract (maybe Brent Seabrook), any shot at trading with the Ottawa Senators for Erik Karlsson? Could they sign him? -- @ny1bullsfan
Slow down with the potential for moving one or two of the defensemen. Oesterle and Kempny have played well recently in the absence of Rutta and Franson, each out recently with an upper-body injury. Ideally, they continue to play well and, in due time, coach Joel Quenneville works Rutta and Franson back in and they play well too. Then, as Quenneville settles on a lineup, one of the defensemen potentially becomes expendable.
As for your second question, never say never, but let's agree that it's a bit pie in the sky. I'd be shocked if Karlsson is traded. He has one year left on his contract after this season and can't sign an extension until July 1, 2018. There's plenty of time for things to be worked out in Ottawa. If they aren't, the Senators would have to look to trade him, and Chicago would be a great landing spot, but why would Ottawa want Seabrook's contract, which runs through the 2023-24 season? The Senators have Dion Phaneuf under contract for three more seasons. Re-signing Karlsson comes with its own set of problems, but that's putting the cart way before the horse.
With the way the Oilers' season has gone so far, is it fair to say that their success last season was a fluke? -- @nyrprpokemon
It would be unfair to say that.
The Oilers have an average age of 26, tied for the youngest in the Pacific Division with the Arizona Coyotes. In some ways, their success last season was ahead of schedule, making their dip this season seem dramatic. They're trying to grow into their identity as a skilled and fast team that needs to be able to play a shutdown game when warranted. They don't have that balance yet. However, they appear to be coming on of late.
Milan Lucic and
Jesse Puljujarvi
are finding chemistry with Connor McDavid on the top forward line. Leon Draisaitl is starting to come around as the center on his own line with Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira. The Oilers have won three of their past four games, scoring three or more goals in each win, including five or more in two. They are 8-1-0 when they score at least three goals since Nov. 22, an improvement from their 5-3-0 record when scoring three or more from Oct. 4-Nov. 21. That's a sign their defense and goaltending are starting to come around too. They've allowed 14 goals in the past six games, an average of 2.33 per game. They're 4-2-0 in that stretch.
If the Oilers earn approximately 66 percent of their remaining 98 points available, they'll finish with about 95-96 points. That might be enough to squeeze into the playoffs. It certainly will put them in contention. That might be asking too much, but that's Edmonton's reality.
New Jersey Devils, real deal this year? -- @AnthonyRomeo1
Real deal. They continue to prove it, and I think they're only going to get better.
